Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Update on Omicron

who.int

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

361–370 of 794 posts

Re: Update on Omicron

#361

Post by teaearlgraycold »

PostOnce wrote: post #349
harry8 wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Talking about vaccine hesitancy in Africa must be accompanied by why there's a certain amount of justification of it and it can be viewed as entirely rational, if also wholly undesirable. Included in that must be the USA's role in creating that problem. A couple of examples quickly turned up with a search engine of which there seem to be far, far too many. I can recall a few not here being reported over the past deca…

That's plausible, but it's not the whole picture. It may only partially explain some of the problem. We have, in the wealthy west, millions of vaccine-hesistant and vaccine-denialist people. I'm not just talking about poor or uneducated people, either. I personally know wealthy, educated, analytical people who have bought into the fearmongering and propaganda. I was shocked to find how deeply skeptical they were. I w…

Is the propaganda really that good? Or did they want to be skeptical to begin with?

Re: Update on Omicron

#362

Post by GuB-42 »

easytiger wrote: post #129
orra wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We definitely shouldn't oversimplify. Delta was simultaneously more infectious and more deadly than the original variant. Virus mutations can be better for us, and they can be worse. This article https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095397/ paints a sensibly nuanced picture.

> Delta was simultaneously more infectious and more deadly than the original variant. That's not my understanding

Delta is less deadly because more people have some immunity, either because of vaccination or because they have already been infected. Also it came late in the game, and many of the people who are the most at risk are already dead. Treatment has improved too.

So the virus itself isn't less deadly, it is just that we are better prepared.

Re: Update on Omicron

#363

Post by somewhereoutth »

Izkata wrote: post #350
somewhereoutth wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why less deadly? Because a virus that is too deadly will likely die. It's why the Spanish flu is now just H1N1. Given how slowly SARS-CoV-2 kills you (if it does), there isn't any selection pressure to do it less often. Indeed, my understanding is that no human virus has evolved to become less virulent. It is unclear why H1N1 disappeared a few years after it emerged as the Spanish flu, most likely it simply ran out…

> Indeed, my understanding is that no human virus has evolved to become less virulent. It is unclear why H1N1 disappeared a few years after it emerged as the Spanish flu, most likely it simply ran out of susceptible hosts. In particular, we have no evidence of a successor virus, evolved from H1N1, that was both less virulent and drove out H1N1 at that time. Spanish flu is still around and did become less virulent ove…

Indeed H1N1 has popped up from time to time, with varying outcomes, not least as prior immunity waned. We are also much better at treating people, particularly bacterial coinfections.

Flu is a bit peculiar with viral RNA/DNA (I forget which) reassortment. However it did not fade out or transmute at the end of the 1918 pandemic due to a selection pressure to become less lethal (or at least, we have no evidence that that is the case)

Re: Update on Omicron

#364

Post by rootusrootus »

malloryerik wrote: post #331

Would it be good if Omicron were more transmissible but less harmful? Theoretically, could a mutation evolve that was highly transmissible but harmless? What would happen?

> Would it be good if Omicron were more transmissible but less harmful?

Yes, provided that immunity gained by infection with Omicron also provided immunity for the other variants.

Re: Update on Omicron

#365

Post by azangru »

heavyset_go wrote: post #321
azangru wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Severe cases and hospitalizations lag infections by 2-3 weeks The starting point in this case would be symptoms onset, surely? First samples were taken on November 14; the median time between the onset of symptoms and hospitalization is 5-10 days; patients have been followed since November 18 [0]. [0] https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/safrican-doctor-says-pa...

Symptom onset precedes hospitalization by several weeks in the average case that requires hospitalization.

Where's this data from? From what I could find:

  - CDC: a median of 5-12 days [0]
  - a Belgian study, spring 2020, 14000+ patients: a median of 3-10 days [1]
  - a Dutch study, spring 2021, 950 patients: a median of 7 days [2]
[0] - https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guida...

[1] - https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33080869/

[2] - https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal...

Re: Update on Omicron

#366

Post by nradov »

aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

SARS-CoV-2 is endemic worldwide in humans and multiple animal species. It will never be eradicated no matter how many people are vaccinated. The vaccines are good at preventing deaths, however they don't reliably prevent infection or transmission.

The current thinking is that new variants are most likely to evolve in immunocompromised patients who experience persistent infections. Vaccines aren't very effective for such patients.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-variants-ma...

I completely agree that we should donate vaccines to low income countries. The US federal government has donated 264M doses so far with more on the way.

https://www.state.gov/covid-19-recovery/vaccine-deliveries/

Re: Update on Omicron

#367

Post by [deleted] »

wallacoloo wrote: post #329
dnautics wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it's not a conspiracy, but it is lamesauce that the WHO said "it's a common surname" when Mu is a more common surname than Xi. They should have just said "it's the surname of a world leader" for honesty and transparency. Instead, they just discredited themselves.

seriously. i get that it’s different organizations doing the naming here, but if the average person actually cared about name conflicts, we wouldn’t still be naming hurricanes after common first names. it’s 100% because of a single, notable person being impacted. maybe more conscientious naming IS a thing we should be doing, but we should make that change because of an organic desire for it — not because of a single…

[deleted]

Re: Update on Omicron

#368

Post by harry8 »

PostOnce wrote: post #349
harry8 wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Talking about vaccine hesitancy in Africa must be accompanied by why there's a certain amount of justification of it and it can be viewed as entirely rational, if also wholly undesirable. Included in that must be the USA's role in creating that problem. A couple of examples quickly turned up with a search engine of which there seem to be far, far too many. I can recall a few not here being reported over the past deca…

That's plausible, but it's not the whole picture. It may only partially explain some of the problem. We have, in the wealthy west, millions of vaccine-hesistant and vaccine-denialist people. I'm not just talking about poor or uneducated people, either. I personally know wealthy, educated, analytical people who have bought into the fearmongering and propaganda. I was shocked to find how deeply skeptical they were. I w…

Oh I'm a /lot/ more contemptuous of idiocy in educated, first world countries, how can one not be? There is a similar thing going on that is far, far less excusable and justifiable. Fauci is still hanging around like a toxic, noxious smell and he is a liar. He tells lies. Says who? Says Fauci himself! And he hasn't been crucified for having done it!! When you tell lies you incur a a debt to the truth, the interest rate is super steep. That is contributing to the problem we are seeing in the USA where an octogenarian un-elected politician like Fauci can fan the flames of vaccination as a partisan issue and be rewarded for it. Justify his "noble" lies all you like (and I can see the case for it even if I /strongly/ disagree). You can't justify keeping him on in a position of authority when that lie is exposed, when his presence fans the flames of mistrust contributing to the biggest problem the USA is facing in Covid policy right now. There's nobody else in the country who can do what Fauci does who isn't covered by that stench? I just don't believe it. He's 80. He should have retired more than a decade ago. When a vaccine hesitant person says the authorities are lying to us, that Fauci is a liar and hasn't had consequences for it we can't actually say that's wrong, because it isn't. That's the bed we're lying in. Any sensible democrat would be looking for a sensible, educated, establishment republican doctor and appoint them to public service and promote them as the number one doctor in the country. Such a republican will exist, thinking they don't is completely mental. (Everyone who disagrees with my political view is crazy style of paranoid mental).

[1] "So, why weren't we told to wear masks in the beginning?

"Well, the reason for that is that we were concerned the public health community, and many people were saying this, were concerned that it was at a time when personal protective equipment, including the N95 masks and the surgical masks, were in very short supply."

[1]https://www.thestreet.com/video/dr-fauci-masks-changing-dire...

Re: Update on Omicron

#369

Post by syshum »

mschuster91 wrote: post #357
syshum wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ahh yes, lets blame capitalism for all things. You do realize that capitalism created the vaccine in the first place? That with out capitalism you would have no vaccine to complain about people refusing to take? I really am tried to seeing capitalism blamed on all the worlds problem when it has been capitalism more than anything else that has brought both peace and prosperity to the world

> That with out capitalism you would have no vaccine to complain about people refusing to take? Cuba, which is as far away from capitalism as you can get these days, has created five different vaccines. And in any case it wasn't capitalism that created the popular vaccines... the mRNA vaccines build up on decades of public-funded research, the Oxford/AZ vaccine was funded by the university endowment IIRC.

>Oxford/AZ vaccine was funded by the university endowment

According to Wikipedia, that vaccine was developed with Venture Capital money from Oxford Sciences Innovation, Google Ventures, and Sequoia Capital, among others. However even if it was "public funding", that public funding is only possible due to the tax base created by the capital system the governments of the world tax to get their funding.

As to Cuba, I believe only 2 has passed Phase II Trials, and none are approved for international use by the World Health Organization. Time will tell if they are effective as they claim.

Re: Update on Omicron

#370

Post by sjg007 »

nradov wrote: post #366
aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

SARS-CoV-2 is endemic worldwide in humans and multiple animal species. It will never be eradicated no matter how many people are vaccinated. The vaccines are good at preventing deaths, however they don't reliably prevent infection or transmission. The current thinking is that new variants are most likely to evolve in immunocompromised patients who experience persistent infections. Vaccines aren't very effective for s…

Vaccines are in fact absolutely critical to not only prevent variants in immunocompromised patients but save their lives.
Post reply on HN