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Update on Omicron

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Re: Update on Omicron

#341

Post by nikolay »

wallacoloo wrote: post #320
yufeng66 wrote: post #285

The omicron variant could be a blessing in disguise if the early stories on how it is less deadly checks out. That means people refuse to get the vaccine shot will be infected with the omicron variant with relatively low consequence and get immunity that way. Btw this is how it suppose to work. The virus has no incentive to kill its host. The variant that is fast spreading and less deadly eventually wins out.

this makes me think that there’s got to be at least some people in power who believe that engineering and releasing a more transmissible but less deadly variant is a prudent way to respond to this pandemic. i wonder how many people are working on this right now.

Given the alpha was human-made, then omicron could also be, like a form of repentance for the original lab leak.

Re: Update on Omicron

#342

Post by incrudible »

djbusby wrote: post #182
Hermel wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the virus could ever be stopped with today's vaccines, even if everyone was vaccinated. Data from fully or almost fully vaccinated countries clearly show that this doesn't eliminate the virus. It of course helps, but we have to depart from the idea that the "zero covid" strategies work.

We got to zero polio. What's stopping it from happening here?

The lack of sterilizing immunity. You can not expect your immune system to mount a permanent immediate defense against coronaviruses.

Once everybody has encountered SARS2 at least once, it may become as harmless as the other endemic coronaviruses. That is to say, not entirely harmless, but nothing to lose sleep over.

It will never go away. How we deal with that is up to us.

Re: Update on Omicron

#343

Post by BLKNSLVR »

aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

Totally agree, and it's the macro version of what I realised after having a discussion with a co-worker who's begrudgingly getting the vaccine, but is against being 'forced' to do it.

I understand the negative reaction to any authority figure forcing something, and I react negatively, to the point of using technical workarounds, to Australia's metadata retention rules and other privacy-related political BS.

Living in a functioning society requires the sacrifice of some freedoms for the benefits that a society provides. People that can get the vaccine have a certain responsibility to get vaccinated on behalf of those members of that society that cannot get vaccinated for valid health reasons, or even for the sake of children currently below the vaccination age range. The vaccinated are forming a shield around the more vulnerable members of their society.

Freedom of personal choice versus 'doing your bit' to protect the weak, elderly, and vulnerable. And most of us have family and friends and co-workers and acquaintances that will fall into this vulnerable category that we'd probably rather they stay alive for a little longer.

I just don't hear it presented this way very much. There's a lot of publicity around the actions of the freedom flag-wavers without too much of the other side of that particular coin being explained.

Like the economics of uber-capitalism being an unhealthy extension of capitalism, this is an unhealthy uber-individualism outgrowth of individualism. It's far more prevalent than I thought it would be, probably because we've had it so good for so long - nearly 80 years since WWII ended.

Edited to add two explanatory things:

1. If COVID sticks around, or if there's a new "thing" in one, two, three, decades' time, we'll be getting into that 'vulnerable' category. When that happens, how will you feel about large groups of 'kids' (25 - 45 year olds) protesting getting vaccinated against a disease that may be very mild for them but fatal for you?

2. I personally know someone, of my age, with COVID-long. The symptoms are something like chronic fatigue syndrome. As a result they're essentially a non-productive member of society who used to be a productive member of society.

Re: Update on Omicron

#344

Post by somewhereoutth »

cletus wrote: post #262
somewhereoutth wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why less deadly? Because a virus that is too deadly will likely die. It's why the Spanish flu is now just H1N1. Given how slowly SARS-CoV-2 kills you (if it does), there isn't any selection pressure to do it less often. Indeed, my understanding is that no human virus has evolved to become less virulent. It is unclear why H1N1 disappeared a few years after it emerged as the Spanish flu, most likely it simply ran out…

Think about it this way: what is the evolutionary pressure for it to become more lethal? Particularly if we accept your premise that such lethality occurs after it spreads. Now a given strain may mutate to become more deadly but why would such a strain become dominant? Even if all this occurs after the virus can spread, consider the human reaction to it. You have two diseases: one is essentially the common cold, the…

I don't think it quite works like that - human reaction would affect the transmission of both the original 'bad' variant, and a hypothetical 'good' variant equally. It wouldn't induce a selection pressure favouring one over the other.

Furthermore, even with ICUs overflowing, a large segment of the population considers it 'just the flu' - and likely still would even if it became more virulent. After all, their assessment is based on ideology, party affiliation etc rather more than cold facts.

Re: Update on Omicron

#345

Post by londons_explore »

missingcolours wrote: post #292
pedalpete wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is correct, but I don't believe it devalues the original comment any less. Any part of the world where vaccination rates are lower allows (I assume) any variant to grow in that region, and then makes it easier to export to other parts of the world.

Given the apparently low efficacy of the current batch of vaccines in preventing infection and transmission, I'm not sure that it's any harder for variants to occur in, say, New Mexico than South Africa. If the case rates are higher, the odds of variants is higher.

I'm not sure this is true. Mutation happens with approximately fixed probability with each copy made.

"peak viral load did not differ by vaccination status or variant type"[1]

[1]: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3...

Re: Update on Omicron

#346

Post by marchingtomars »

It doesn't have to be someone in government. It could be a group of people acting strategically towards a particular goal, in a series of steps. Those steps would include paying funds for the following: Lobbying governmental officials across all three branches, Strategically networking & "giving gifts" (quid pro quo), Sponsoring scientific studies, Paying journalists to report certain things.

For example, Amazon Executives have a financial interests in reducing competition from independent retailers ("Mom & Pop shops"). A lockdown would certainly boost Amazon's position in that case. And Bezos does own the Washington Post.

By the way, have you heard of Operation Mockingbird [1]?

"Operation Mockingbird is an alleged large-scale program of the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) that began in the early years of the Cold War and attempted to manipulate news media for propaganda purposes."

"According to author Deborah Davis, Operation Mockingbird recruited leading American journalists into a propaganda network and influenced the operations of front groups. CIA support of front groups was exposed when a 1967 Ramparts magazine article reported that the National Student Association received funding from the CIA. In 1975, Church Committee Congressional investigations revealed Agency connections with journalists and civic groups."

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mockingbird

Re: Update on Omicron

#347

Post by disambiguation »

mr_sturd wrote: post #163
aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

Very true; and even if Omicron turns out to be less dangerous than previous variants, it's a case of when, not if, a deadlier variant will emerge from a poorly-vaccinated population.

> emerge from a poorly-vaccinated population.

I don't really care much for the finger pointing, but for sake of setting the record straight .. aren't most of the omicron mutations in the spike protein? ie it evolved to evade vaccine based immunity

Re: Update on Omicron

#348

Post by city41 »

throwaway894345 wrote: post #269
aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

I agree with this—not only do we have the usual moral imperative to help others, but it’s actually in our primary interest. The US has actually done exceedingly well here, having delivered more donations than all other countries combined (not sure if this is still the case; I haven’t checked in a couple of months). But there’s still more work to do and other rich countries need to get on board quickly. Apropos of not…

Biden mentioned that the US has donated more than all other countries combined in his statement two days ago. I would hope his statement was well fact checked.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases...

Re: Update on Omicron

#349

Post by PostOnce »

harry8 wrote: post #318
xg15 wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely true, but not the whole story unfortunately. While many African countries need more vaccines, South Africa was in the process of throttling shipments because less and less people were getting vaccinated. So the other big challenge is raising acceptance of the vaccines and fighting denialism.

Talking about vaccine hesitancy in Africa must be accompanied by why there's a certain amount of justification of it and it can be viewed as entirely rational, if also wholly undesirable. Included in that must be the USA's role in creating that problem. A couple of examples quickly turned up with a search engine of which there seem to be far, far too many. I can recall a few not here being reported over the past deca…

That's plausible, but it's not the whole picture. It may only partially explain some of the problem.

We have, in the wealthy west, millions of vaccine-hesistant and vaccine-denialist people.

I'm not just talking about poor or uneducated people, either.

I personally know wealthy, educated, analytical people who have bought into the fearmongering and propaganda. I was shocked to find how deeply skeptical they were. I was even more shocked to be linked to propaganda with hard-to-miss flaws, like the fact that the promoter is not talking on behalf of the AMA, but on behalf of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_American_Physic... ... and I'm not even in America.

I also know people who got a dose of vaccine, read propaganda, became skeptical and delayed their second dose for a long time.

It's not just the poor, the ignorant, or people we've betrayed. It's bigger than that. I don't think anyone fully understands it yet.

Watching the people around me has stirred in me many new questions.

Re: Update on Omicron

#350

Post by Izkata »

somewhereoutth wrote: post #238
cletus wrote: post #108

No one still thinks Covid is ever going away, right? It's likely something we'll just have to deal with like the flu. For one thing, there are now Covid-19 reservoirs in various animal populations. It's hard to say how this will evolve but there's a lot of evolutionary pressure on viruses to become more transmissible and less deadly. Why less deadly? Because a virus that is too deadly will likely die. It's why the Sp…

> Why less deadly? Because a virus that is too deadly will likely die. It's why the Spanish flu is now just H1N1. Given how slowly SARS-CoV-2 kills you (if it does), there isn't any selection pressure to do it less often. Indeed, my understanding is that no human virus has evolved to become less virulent. It is unclear why H1N1 disappeared a few years after it emerged as the Spanish flu, most likely it simply ran out…

> Indeed, my understanding is that no human virus has evolved to become less virulent. It is unclear why H1N1 disappeared a few years after it emerged as the Spanish flu, most likely it simply ran out of susceptible hosts. In particular, we have no evidence of a successor virus, evolved from H1N1, that was both less virulent and drove out H1N1 at that time.

Spanish flu is still around and did become less virulent over time - and it has descendants that comingled with other flus to create other pandemics: https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended

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