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Update on Omicron

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Re: Update on Omicron

#171

Post by sjg007 »

belter wrote: post #38

South Africa's COVID-19 adviser, Prof Barry Schoub told Sky News that so far, most Omicron cases, were mild. https://youtu.be/3RSRtuRm92o Edit: "South African doctor who raised alarm about omicron variant says symptoms are ‘unusual but mild’" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas... "Dr Angelique Coetzee said she was first alerted to the possibility of a new variant when patients in her busy pr…

If the variant pushes hospitals over the brink it will be catastrophic. Peru had very bad outcomes because they ran out of oxygen. Many otherwise healthy patients died who would have likely survived had they had some O2.

We forget how good Western medicine is, but none of that is going to matter if the system is overwhelmed and god forbid we run out of O2.

Also I imagine most patients right now being hospitalized in South Africa have Omicron.

Re: Update on Omicron

#172

Post by ceejayoz »

coolso wrote: post #164
ceejayoz wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Albert Einstein: > Quantum mechanics is very impressive. But an inner voice tells me that it is not yet the real thing. The theory produces a good deal but hardly brings us closer to the secret of the Old One. I am at all events convinced that He does not play dice. Scientists get things wrong. I'm more concerned about someone who won't change their position when better information becomes available.

Did better information become available, or was he misleading the public to prevent people buying too many masks making it harder for medical staff to acquire them? Either way the quote is important to inform people who may not be aware, that a Fauci quote is not necessarily the end all be all factual information the media would have you believe it is.

> Did better information become available...

Yes. We have significantly more information on the utility of cloth and surgical masking than we did in March of 2020.

Re: Update on Omicron

#173

Post by 2-718-281-828 »

aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

If I was African I'd argue against vaccination. People in Africa are less obese and younger than folks from the developed regions. So, Covid won't cause much problems there to begin with. And vaccination just handicaps the pandemy turning endemic.

Re: Update on Omicron

#174

Post by a0-prw »

koheripbal wrote: post #100
belter wrote: post #38

South Africa's COVID-19 adviser, Prof Barry Schoub told Sky News that so far, most Omicron cases, were mild. https://youtu.be/3RSRtuRm92o Edit: "South African doctor who raised alarm about omicron variant says symptoms are ‘unusual but mild’" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas... "Dr Angelique Coetzee said she was first alerted to the possibility of a new variant when patients in her busy pr…

This is a novice interpretation of the data. Most early cases are recorded as mild. Severe cases and hospitalizations lag infections by 2-3 weeks, and deaths lag by 2-3 months. It's frankly irresponsible to report this factoid without that caveat.

What is this absolute bullshit. Which shittube did you suck this "information" from, mr expert? Oh, sorry, your fear-mongering machine hasn't had time to power up yet? Sorry about that fucktard.

Re: Update on Omicron

#175

Post by sharkweek »

belter wrote: post #47
ceejayoz wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.yahoo.com/now/u-k-buying-time-mideast-111736790.... > The World Health Organization is urging caution after two South African health experts, including the doctor who first sounded the alarm about the omicron variant, indicated that symptoms linked to the coronavirus strain have been mild so far. > The initial reported infections were among university students, WHO said, adding that younger patients tend…

Indeed. Prof Barry Schoub, mentions two times in the interview that its very early days.

It’s interesting compared to some of the initial COVID cases recorded in the US last year, specifically in a nursing home up here in the Seattle area where its death/hospitalization rate were quite high (iirc it was around 1 in 4 of that initial outbreak in the home ended up dying or something quite terrifying).

I’m worried that the opposite might be true here, young and healthy catching it first so death rate is lower (great!) but lulls everyone into a false sense of security that it won’t be another delta wave especially among elderly and sick but then it slowly creeps into one because of the initial coverage.

Tough balancing act for researchers, trying to prevent both panic and complacency.

Re: Update on Omicron

#176

Post by pedalpete »

mattrighetti wrote: post #159
aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

The fact that this has been discovered in Africa doesn’t mean that it originated there in the first place. > Several scientists said they suspected that the variant had been spreading undetected in countries with lackluster sequencing efforts before it surfaced in Botswana and South Africa, giving it more time to scatter globally. Nevertheless, European nations did not find the variant until after South Africa alerte…

This is correct, but I don't believe it devalues the original comment any less. Any part of the world where vaccination rates are lower allows (I assume) any variant to grow in that region, and then makes it easier to export to other parts of the world.

Re: Update on Omicron

#177

Post by azangru »

ellyagg wrote: post #120
belter wrote: post #38

South Africa's COVID-19 adviser, Prof Barry Schoub told Sky News that so far, most Omicron cases, were mild. https://youtu.be/3RSRtuRm92o Edit: "South African doctor who raised alarm about omicron variant says symptoms are ‘unusual but mild’" https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas... "Dr Angelique Coetzee said she was first alerted to the possibility of a new variant when patients in her busy pr…

It is not yet clear whether infection with Omicron causes more severe disease compared to infections with other variants, including Delta. I thought this was weirdly worded. It's also not clear whether Omicron disease is less severe, either, right? A long time ago, long before the pandemic politicized messaging so much, a researcher posted a comment here on HN where they said that virus deadliness and contagiousness…

> a researcher posted a comment here on HN where they said that virus deadliness and contagiousness were in tension.

I've heard this statement a lot, and have been rather puzzled by why this must be the case. It's certainly true over a long period of time (a deadly pathogen that will kill off its hosts too quickly will also perish); and it's also certainly true that if a pathogen is very contagious but not deadly it can replace a deadly but less contagious variant; but I don't believe there's any molecular mechanism that locks these two properties relative to one another and dictates that if a new variant is more contagious it is likely to be less deadly and vice versa.

Re: Update on Omicron

#178

Post by xg15 »

Hermel wrote: post #165
aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

I don't think the virus could ever be stopped with today's vaccines, even if everyone was vaccinated. Data from fully or almost fully vaccinated countries clearly show that this doesn't eliminate the virus. It of course helps, but we have to depart from the idea that the "zero covid" strategies work.

I mean, there are Zero Covid strategies that work, see China or New Zealand. The problem is just that those measures are so drastic that many countries would probably not accept them.

The goal in western countries is to get to the "endemic phase" of the infection - i.e. "live with the virus". That's all well and good, unfortunately this requires the disease to become significantly less deadly than it still is. We're not there yet.

Re: Update on Omicron

#179

Post by grimdata »

The media blows these variants out of proportion. I've been doing research in computational epidemiology now for quite some time. Get concerned when we say there is a new strain. As for now, this new variant will be used for political purposes (look at us, we're doing something about it).

This variant has been in the US for about two months, and it is easy to spot in the data in places like Colorado.

Don't blame me, the messenger, blame the politicians on both sides who have gotten this virus wrong.

Vaccination is the only tool we have. There is not a single medication we have that does better than an incremental improvement in patients (and all of those are up for debate).

And before anyone starts with 3rd world countries not having the vaccine, many of those 3rd world countries have sold their supplies to other nations, or have no way to distribute the vaccine. No one is discussing this.

Re: Update on Omicron

#180

Post by lemming »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #169
aetherspawn wrote: post #154

Ok, my 2 cents. This happened because there isn’t enough vaccines in third world countries. They can’t afford them. The moral of the story? It doesn’t matter if you 100% vaccinate your western country. We’re all in this together. When COVID spreads in Africa and makes a new strain, it may as well be on your own doorstep. The world needs to step up and distribute vaccines to every corner of the globe, for FREE, or we’…

OK, free at the point of need, but it still needs to be paid for; do you have a suggestion. If countries take the vaccine supplies and then sell them on, what do we do then -- install a new government so we can get vaccines distributed? What if people won't take the vaccine that came from USA/China/Russia/local state they don't trust, do we somehow force them? I'm for your proposal in the general aspect of it, but ho…

If the vaccine is free, why would anyone need to sell it on?
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