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How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

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Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#141

Post by mbesto »

HMH wrote: post #70

Maximum death rate for all age groups with Moderna, which at least according to these plots provides the lowest death rate, is at 0.8/100_000 in August 2021 for all age groups. Maximum death rate for the unvaccinated of age 12-17 is at 0.17/100_000, for age 18-29 it is 0.76/100_000, also in August 2021. So even unvaccinated younger people (age < 30) are better off than the average vaccinated Joe. The thing is, so far…

> at least to me it sounds like "vaccinate absolutely everyone or we are all doomed", which according to this data is not the case.

Sending mass communication about health with a list of "ifs ands or buts" is incredibly challenging especially for a pandemic level response, so if the communication is simply "get the vaccine" then you're going to get a higher uptick.

I understand your nitpick, but also understand the general population doesn't fully grok this stuff.

EDIT: Lemme also add - the data we're viewing is retrospective. We wouldn't know the effect until now, so of course the message has been "Get the vaccine"

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#142

Post by ifyoubuildit »

SketchySeaBeast wrote: post #137
ifyoubuildit wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably the under 30s will get covid within a few years, and then they will be in the pool of people with significant immunity.

Or they could vaccinate and have significant immunity nearly immediately without COVID.

Yes, one of those two things will happen. The point is that the under 30s aren't likely to make it to a different age bracket where they are more significantly at risk without first achieving immunity in one of those ways.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#143

Post by distances »

s5300 wrote: post #90
dougmwne wrote: post #71

Dear HN, should I, a man under 40 get a booster shot? How many months after my second dose should I get it? What are the best resources to answer this question? This information is scary hard to get for someone who wants science, not politics.

>> What are the best resources to answer this question? ….seriously? Your doctor Good lord we are in for some bad times

For what it's worth, it would never cross my mind to get a doctor's appointment to just ask if I should get a booster. The health care system does not have enough slack for everyone to do that. I'd read official recommendations.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#144

Post by DanHulton »

steviedotboston wrote: post #32

It really seems like it's safe to say that a fully vaccinated person's risk of dying from covid is low enough where based on the pre-2020 accepted societal standards for risk there should be next to no behavior modification expected.

I have friends and family who have had to delay lifesaving medical procedures because hospitals are still swamped and medical personnel are still overworked from dealing with the COVID cases we currently have.

Societal standards for risk still need to take into account far, far more than just "Am I, personally, going to die from exactly this one risk factor?"

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#145

Post by verdverm »

roywiggins wrote: post #81
verdverm wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know the answer to this, but how does the total viral shed of a unvaccinated child compare to a vaccinated 60+? Also the viral shed of children compared by vaccine status. If it turns out the answer is lower and similar respectively, then it would seem vaccination of children makes little difference in the grand scheme. Two years in and we still make policy with many unknowns. Why don't we have a better under…

The youngest kids are actually more likely to pass it on to their families, because they can't isolate.

Any references to share?

That logic would seem to apply to all groups who cohabitate and is orthogonal to my query.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#146

Post by s5300 »

distances wrote: post #143
s5300 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> What are the best resources to answer this question? ….seriously? Your doctor Good lord we are in for some bad times

For what it's worth, it would never cross my mind to get a doctor's appointment to just ask if I should get a booster. The health care system does not have enough slack for everyone to do that. I'd read official recommendations.

For what it’s worth, every recommendation I can remember hearing or reading advised to consult with your doctor to “see if the vaccine is right for you”

Upon receiving any sort of medical injection, you’re also typically recommended to follow up with your doctor.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#147

Post by distances »

s5300 wrote: post #146
distances wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For what it's worth, it would never cross my mind to get a doctor's appointment to just ask if I should get a booster. The health care system does not have enough slack for everyone to do that. I'd read official recommendations.

For what it’s worth, every recommendation I can remember hearing or reading advised to consult with your doctor to “see if the vaccine is right for you” Upon receiving any sort of medical injection, you’re also typically recommended to follow up with your doctor.

For Covid in Europe at least you get the consultation when getting the jab. So I would (and do) check recommendations, reserve a vaccination slot, and talk with the doctor administering the vaccine if I have any questions.

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#148

Post by HMH »

eqvinox wrote: post #132
HMH wrote: post #70

Maximum death rate for all age groups with Moderna, which at least according to these plots provides the lowest death rate, is at 0.8/100_000 in August 2021 for all age groups. Maximum death rate for the unvaccinated of age 12-17 is at 0.17/100_000, for age 18-29 it is 0.76/100_000, also in August 2021. So even unvaccinated younger people (age < 30) are better off than the average vaccinated Joe. The thing is, so far…

You're forgetting the vaccine is also very efficient in preventing hospitalization. By a factor of ≈11 (average, ages 12-17 & 18-59) in the RKI (Germany) data[¹]. So even if you're aged 12 to 29, if you don't get vaccinated you're gambling at taking away someone else's hospital bed. Which will doom the rest of us. So, can everyone please get fricken vaccinated ffs? [¹] https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges…

> So even if you're aged 12 to 29, if you don't get vaccinated you're gambling at taking away someone else's hospital bed. Which will doom the rest of us.

According to [1] at no point in time since March this year (when they started recording this data) have there been more than 100 hospitalizations in the age group 0-30 in Germany a country with 80+ million inhabitants. If this means doom to all of us I don't know anymore.

[1]: https://www.intensivregister.de/#/aktuelle-lage/altersstrukt...

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#149

Post by lpolovets »

frickinLasers wrote: post #116

For the irrationally angry throwaway, here you go: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/ad... VAERS (an early warning system that allows unverified reports and requires physicians to report all seemingly related deaths) shows 0.0022% (9,810) of vaccinated individuals in the US died after receiving the vaccine. Generously assuming all those reports can be directly linked to the vaccination (they c…

> that figure is already three orders of magnitude lower than the 1.6% (772,000)

I think the interesting ethical/moral/etc debate is what to do for people who are at lower or negligible risk of dying from COVID in the first place.

For example, https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... suggests that <20k people under 40 have died from covid over 2 years. There might be age groups or demographics where the risk of death from the vaccine is higher than from covid. (This is a statistics observation, not a political statement.) For those groups, what should be expected in terms of vaccination? E.g. what if for your demographic, the risk of death from the vaccine in 1 in 50k but the risk of death from covid is 1 in 200k?

Re: How death rates from Covid-19 differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated

#150

Post by verdverm »

roywiggins wrote: post #86
listless wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly this. I am double vaxxed Moderna and got it. I was bad sick, but not as bad as my unvaxxed friends who got it. But I’m sure I spread that sucker all over the place. And by the way, the mask made no difference In my case. I’m convinced it’s a fresh N95 everyday or you’re wasting your time.

The vaccine is still good at preventing you from catching it at all. If you don't catch it you don't spread it. It's more like 50% effective than 99%, but it's still going to reduce the chance you give it to anyone substantially.

Vaccinated, asymptomatic can still spread the disease, though at reduced rates.
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