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Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#131

Post by AnimalMuppet »

Rent going up. I think that one's pretty safe.

Remote work will continue - maybe not as strong as during the lockdowns, but still much stronger than in 2019.

Covid will continue to be a problem. By the end of 2022, we won't be at a "new normal" that is any different from where we currently are. There will still be a war about mask mandates and vaccine mandates and vaccine booster mandates.

The 2022 elections will be very vicious, maybe even marked by violence, but in the end the Republicans will control at least one branch of Congress, most likely both.

There will be violence associated with the 2024 election cycle.

Oh, you wanted tech predictions?

GPT-3 continues to impress, but has a much harder time turning into something useful. The "doesn't actually understand what it's saying" problem is too big to fix. Systems that actually do understand and then generate appropriate text are stronger, but cannot be created by GPT-3-like methods.

We'll still mostly be on IPv4.

Nothing dramatic changes in chips or fabs. Nothing dramatic changes in self-driving vehicles. There will be some cool stuff in medical, though. Between Alzheimer's and cancer, there will be at least one major advance.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#135

Post by AnimalMuppet »

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #52
idrios wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s. - Crypto will undergo a major crash in 2022. It follows predictable, cyclical patterns, and we are nearing the end of the classic…

Crypto can't be a real inflation hedge because it's not a productive asset (this is not a criticism). It may be going up because people are worried about inflation and so are moving some money to riskier assets that offer a higher return, but if inflation were to continue people would be forced to move their crypto assets to things like food, housing, equipment, that are actually productive, which would drive down th…

Gold isn't a productive asset either, but people all around the world use gold as, essentially, a short against fiat currencies. Crypto could take over that role; I'm not sure that it will.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#136

Post by meremortals »

svrourke wrote: post #71

Kamala will take over the presidency when Biden's colonoscopy comes back with colon cancer. Graphics cards will return to msrp prices. Government action to fix container pileup issues (incentives for hiring more workers, penalties for containers in stacks for longer than x weeks) (it's my understanding this a manufactured crisis to increase profits) James Webb will observe proof of alien life nearby Donbas will becom…

> James Webb will observe proof of alien life nearby

Agree

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#137

Post by AnimalMuppet »

armchairhacker wrote: post #98
uejfiweun wrote: post #3

- COVID will continue to be a thing. Some new variant will come along and force everyone to lock down again. - The fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates low. This means we will have another year of rapidly rising asset prices. - Supply chain issues will get worse throughout 2022, massively fueled by US-China tensions and COVID related shifts in demand. Major inflation like we haven't seen since the 1970s…

I really don't see us ever locking down again. If we do lock down, it will be a half-assed "lock down", even more half-assed than before. Or it would be because of an especially bad variant, and even then it would have to be actually coordinated and enforced or there would be mass riots. I feel guilty saying it, but most people are tired of lockdowns and will refuse even if it's the moral choice. If we lock down in 2…

If there is a lockdown again, there had better not be high government officials ignoring it (especially ones who advocated for it). Otherwise, there will almost certainly be violence. We are done with hypocritical bigshots telling us what we have to do "for the greater good", and then deciding that they're too important for the rules to apply to them.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#138

Post by AnimalMuppet »

turbinerneiter wrote: post #59
bshipp wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Galactically-feared aliens arrive on Earth and come up with a diabolical plan to force us to work 4 hours a day, three days a week with full medical, dental, and prescription coverage along with 60 days of vacation per year. The rest of the galaxy scratches their...whatevers...wondering why the humans throw down their tools and rush to work for the invaders.

I'd buy that book.

I actually saw this recently (within the last week) on /r/hfy. (Not the book, just a short story. The aliens were going to kidnap a million humans, work them 20 hours a week for five years, then send each one home with a kilo of gold. If we didn't agree, they were going to destroy the earth. They thought they were being big nasty conquerors, imposing harsh terms...)

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#139

Post by AnimalMuppet »

l33tbro wrote: post #20

I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment. Remote work is here to stay. Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now). Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pand…

> I think the fake 'inflation' we are seeing (which is really supply-side shock) will vanish, and reveal that we are in a huge deflationary environment.

> Rents go up as over-leveraged landlords will have to pay back rising interest rates (QE is tapering already now).

I think these two contradict each other. Inflation is fake, but interest rates rise?

> Climate issues, real and not so real, will be used to achieve the control agenda of established power in the same way the pandemic was.

Yup.

Re: Ask HN: What are your 2022 predictions?

#140

Post by snerbles »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #137
armchairhacker wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really don't see us ever locking down again. If we do lock down, it will be a half-assed "lock down", even more half-assed than before. Or it would be because of an especially bad variant, and even then it would have to be actually coordinated and enforced or there would be mass riots. I feel guilty saying it, but most people are tired of lockdowns and will refuse even if it's the moral choice. If we lock down in 2…

If there is a lockdown again, there had better not be high government officials ignoring it (especially ones who advocated for it). Otherwise, there will almost certainly be violence. We are done with hypocritical bigshots telling us what we have to do "for the greater good", and then deciding that they're too important for the rules to apply to them.

> Otherwise, there will almost certainly be violence.

People still have their Big Macs and Netflix, they will seethe in relative silence while they're smothered.

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