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Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

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Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#761

Post by ajuc »

ifyoubuildit wrote: post #749
ajuc wrote: post #677

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's already been violence over vaccination and masks. Mostly from the usual side (alt-right): [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] It's one thing to try to be objective and look at both sides. It's another to purposefully present a political issue as independent from political views. Anti-vax and anti-mask attitudes, conspiracy theories and tendency to violence are positively correlated with right-wing political views. That's jus…

> Anti-vax and anti-mask attitudes, conspiracy theories and tendency to violence are positively correlated with right-wing political views. That's just how it is. Sounds like a decent reason to maybe keep these people separate from the rest of the population, just for a little while until everything is back to normal. How would you feel about that? Would you cheer? Would you miss a paycheck to protest in the streets?

> Sounds like a decent reason to maybe keep these people separate from the rest of the population

Sounds like you're trying very hard to make an abstract point to contradict what happens in practice.

> Would you miss a paycheck to protest in the streets?

I did, several times. I happen to live in Poland and our government is awful for the last 8 years.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#762

Post by psychlops »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #539
psychlops wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, it's also a big power grab so that doesn't help.

A power grab by who? Mask manufacturers? People who don't like to look at lips? I am baffled by the belief that asking people to wear masks, in the middle of a pandemic, is a power grab by anyone. If anything, an intervention that would make it safer to open up more businesses and public spaces should be seen as a great thing for reducing the power needed to shut these spaces in the first place.

I wasn't specifically referring to masks, but now see that the thread had gone that way. I would say, however, that doing good and grabbing power are not mutually exclusive.

I, too, am baffled by beliefs (in general) and would suggest any new powers given to authority be viewed with extreme suspicion and of limited duration before enacted.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#763

Post by nradov »

mike00632 wrote: post #747
roenxi wrote: post #732

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> your refusal to comply with basic health and safety precautions violates "basic human rights" of everyone around you... 1. I mean, I'm vaccinated. So pardon me for not taking that outburst seriously. 2. That is a stupid argument. We haven't managed to eradicate the flu, I caught it the other year. So it isn't obvious how someone being unvaccinated can expose you to extra risk - COVID is still going to be around and…

But we have managed to eradicate smallpox, thanks to widespread vaccination campaigns. Not to mention that the flu vaccine saves many lives each year, which is why it's mandated in many areas of life. Perhaps you should dial back the anti-vax sentiments.

We managed to eradicate smallpox because there are no animal hosts and we have a highly sterilizing vaccine. Those conditions do not obtain with COVID-19. I encourage everyone to get vaccinated if they can, but SARS-CoV-2 will never be eradicated.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#764

Post by eightysixfour »

thepasswordis wrote: post #758
eightysixfour wrote: post #572

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Covid sucks. Yes, it almost certainly leaked out of a lab in China. > Yes it was gain of function research. Yes this is the worst industrial disaster in the history of the planet. There are plenty of factual, logical arguments for and against a lab leak and there is a decent chance we will never know. Suggesting the matter is decided is a lie in its own right. > We aren't sure if the masks are actually effective bu…

Imagine after the Chernobyl disaster somebody insisting that the reactor didn’t melt down, but in fact there was a giant earthquake that opened a fissure in the ground and shot a bunch of radioactive rocks all over the town, and that that then triggered a volcano which shot radioactive dust all over Europe. At some point: the reactor in the nuclear power plant next to Pripyat is the source and alternative explanation…

There is possibly a form of survivorship bias here - it is likely that the WIV became the world leader in coronavirus research because it met the criteria for a BSL4 lab and is within a one to two day driving distance of places where previous coronavirus outbreaks started. In some ways it is unsurprising that it would be near the epicenter of an outbreak.

I am not stating that it did not escape from the lab, just that there are additional factors to consider and the likelihood it was an escape is less obvious than you are making it out to be.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#765

Post by whimsicalism »

systemvoltage wrote: post #680
whimsicalism wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> lockdowns have significant irreversible costs for low risk individuals and for society Sure, but let's keep in mind what they can do when they are effective. China averted the deaths of 2.5-3 million people with an effective lockdown program. That's incredible. I'm not confident I can really think of any policy proposition that would save more lives off of the top of my head. The fact that we failed to do the same…

This is an argument based on emotional appeal than rational objectivity. See: “Think about the children”. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Think_of_the_children

I find the smug self-confidence in their own rationality that some on this site show to be extremely off-putting. Most people are not nearly as objective as they think they are.

Saying that it is better for 3 million people to be alive rather than dead is not an emotional appeal, it's actually quite rational if our goal is to not kill people.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#766

Post by whimsicalism »

ameminator wrote: post #697
whimsicalism wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> lockdowns have significant irreversible costs for low risk individuals and for society Sure, but let's keep in mind what they can do when they are effective. China averted the deaths of 2.5-3 million people with an effective lockdown program. That's incredible. I'm not confident I can really think of any policy proposition that would save more lives off of the top of my head. The fact that we failed to do the same…

I really liked the Chinese policy of welding people in their homes (where some starved to death) and lying to the populace about the real numbers and severity of the coronavirus.

Yeah, when there's a deadly pandemic, some people will need to be quarantined.

I liked the bit where 3 million people didn't die, whereas 700k people died here.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#767

Post by kcplate »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #756
paul_f wrote: post #714

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. The CDC went from masks don't work, to everyone wear masks, to no masks if vaccinated, to wear a mask even if vaccinated. In 18 months.

18 months is a long time. I’m ok with plans changing to find something that works. But again, I understand that a lot of people crave the single right answer from the start.

Can we at least expect a mostly or even somewhat right answer after 18 months?

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#768

Post by jimkleiber »

clairity wrote: post #651
jimkleiber wrote: post #633

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I lived with my parents for all of last year and my mom was going thru chemo, so at the time, the threat to her life from covid was very present in my mind. That has gone away since she got vaccinated and I'm grateful. At the same time, my best friend's parents are not vaccinated and I worry that they will get very sick and/or die. My great uncle died from covid. I agree that maybe the phrase "easily kill grandma" wa…

perhaps i misheard it, but i literally heard the 95% for over-65s figure this morning on the radio, which seemed to be quoting the cdc (but again, it didn't have my full and undivided attention). the difference could also be first dose vs. 'fully vaccinated'.

At least this link says even for first dose it's only 91% and 87%, again, which could be off, yet seems as if it would be accurate.

Again, I don't know. What I've learned this year is that statistics can be very unintuitive and I know so little about how they work, that in uncertain times like these, I almost feel reliant on choosing someone to trust who I think understands this stuff better than I.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#769

Post by ifyoubuildit »

ajuc wrote: post #761
ifyoubuildit wrote: post #749

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Anti-vax and anti-mask attitudes, conspiracy theories and tendency to violence are positively correlated with right-wing political views. That's just how it is. Sounds like a decent reason to maybe keep these people separate from the rest of the population, just for a little while until everything is back to normal. How would you feel about that? Would you cheer? Would you miss a paycheck to protest in the streets?

> Sounds like a decent reason to maybe keep these people separate from the rest of the population Sounds like you're trying very hard to make an abstract point to contradict what happens in practice. > Would you miss a paycheck to protest in the streets? I did, several times. I happen to live in Poland and our government is awful for the last 8 years.

No, it's just the question I originally came into this thread with. Someone brought up "internment of a minority that they distrust" framing it as something that was specific to one side.

It occurred to me that people who are unvaccinated fit that classifier, and that I've seen plenty of dehumanization of these people in comments on the internet. I saw your comment as not quite to that level, but along the same lines (lumping unvaccinated people in with alt right violence).

So I thought you might be a good test case. If they rounded up the unvaccinated, would you stand up for them? Or would you do what most people do in most situations, and keep your head to the grindstone, focus on feeding your family and paying your mortgage?

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#770

Post by whimsicalism »

AzzieElbab wrote: post #570
whimsicalism wrote: post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But where do the stores buy masks, hm?

wouldn't it be easy for a competent government to identify and control maks suppliers? btw, here in Canada, most notable ppe hoarders were shipping it to China

Not the US government, which gives massive deference to private actors.

It would take weeks if not months to do something like that at the federal level, our government doesn't move fast.

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