Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#411

Post by sjwalter » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:30 PM UTC

Dick Thaler, who won a Nobel prize in econ, wrote a book called Nudge (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nudge_(book for more info), which I'd bet good money Fauci and the entire public policy elite have read and internalized.

The book is basically about how the ruling class should think about structuring policy and messaging to create the outcomes they desire--"choice architecture". Thaler's work describes how public policy "experts" should frame their messaging such that us sheep submit to their will.

Notably, nothing in the book is about how to make public policy to benefit the actual people--the built-in assumption is that our rulers have the unique ability to see the future that is best, and this book simply describes how to achieve that future. Honesty is not a consideration in itself--it is only one factor among many in considering second- and third-order consequences of particular messaging techniques and policy actions.

Our (that is, the peoples') "best interests" don't factor into their thinking one single iota.

If anyone thinks any of this pandemic crap has anything to do with helping people, at least as far as the rulers go, I feel so sorry for them.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#412

Post by whimsicalism » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:31 PM UTC

cat_plus_plus wrote: post #356

How about the biggest dishonesty - lack of admission that not everyone is at the same risk and that lockdowns have significant irreversible costs for low risk individuals and for society? Young children are not getting critical development years back. Healthy 20 somethings only have limited time to date, party and have fun before being saddled with adult responsibilities forever. Most of shattered local businesses ar…

> lockdowns have significant irreversible costs for low risk individuals and for society

Sure, but let's keep in mind what they can do when they are effective.

China averted the deaths of 2.5-3 million people with an effective lockdown program. That's incredible.

I'm not confident I can really think of any policy proposition that would save more lives off of the top of my head.

The fact that we failed to do the same will go down as a tragedy of massive magnitude.

e: The jingoism here can be a bit too much. Any praise of any Chinese policy gets downvotes, even if one recognizes them as a despotic, racist regime. It's nativistic ignorance, plain and simple.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#413

Post by jjgreen » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:31 PM UTC

Natsu wrote: post #393

clairity wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

'just follow the rules'... that's exactly how we get the blind unreasonableness we're seeing everywhere. you need to examine your assumption that masks are doing anything at all in most common situations, and then consider what's actually reasonable vs. what you've rationalized yourself into. humility is missing in your thrust to convince others of your correctness.

I think you meant to reply to someone else, because you're quoting words that I didn't write. If I was running things, I would tell people that they have no power to punish anyone whatsoever and design the Covid rules with that in mind, making them focused entirely on helping people instead of controlling them.

To be fair, "helping people comply with rules" and "just follow the rules" are pretty much synonymous.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#414

Post by whimsicalism » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:34 PM UTC

sjwalter wrote: post #411

Dick Thaler, who won a Nobel prize in econ, wrote a book called Nudge (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nudge_(book for more info), which I'd bet good money Fauci and the entire public policy elite have read and internalized. The book is basically about how the ruling class should think about structuring policy and messaging to create the outcomes they desire--"choice architecture". Thaler's work describes how publ…

I'll go mask off: yeah, I think "nudging" is probably necessary in a country where 45% of people legitimately believe in ghosts and 30% believe they've interacted with one before.

You've got to be in a serious intellectual bubble to be thinking that most people are carefully considering the options and making the best choices for themselves.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#415

Post by kyleee » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:34 PM UTC

kelnos wrote: post #375

colpabar wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point of the comment you're replying to isn't that we don't just distrust the government now , it's that distrusting the government was expected of all citizens by the people who founded the country. We have an amendment that basically says "if the government becomes tyrannical, use guns to make them stop." Some people think that we are supposed to distrust them, always .

No, I get that, and I explicitly reject it as "part of the country's DNA". Talk and assumptions like that merely perpetuate the status quo.

It's a governance technique meant to curb excesses of the ruling elite, informed by the historical frequency of ill behaved governing bodies and their miscellaneous maltreatment of the governed

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#416

Post by iammisc » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:37 PM UTC

hackingforfun wrote: post #307

8eye wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

no disrespect but i know plenty of liberals who will not get the vaccine. the media turned it into a bi-partisan issue when in all actuality it was a government handling issue in which the rest were used as scapegoats. you remember that they gave themselves raises while the rest of us were told not to go into work. which obviously we are gonna listen if we believe that covid is as dangerous as the scientist were sayi…

> no disrespect but i know plenty of liberals who will not get the vaccine. Anecdotally, the liberals I know seem much more open to the science behind the COVID vaccine and I don't know any of them who didn't get the shot. > the reason why blockchain (primary crypto) technology took last year was because of the censorship issues. Not sure I understand your point here. I think crypto is being adopted for other reasons…

> Anecdotally, the liberals I know seem much more open to the science behind the COVID vaccine and I don't know any of them who didn't get the shot.

Anecdotally, most people only know others who view things very closely to themselves.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#417

Post by PeterisP » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:38 PM UTC

iammisc wrote: post #405

bad_username wrote: post #369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Massive, coordinated, media-sponsored mocking of people who discuss Ivermectin, calling them stupid horse paste guzzlers. I don't know if works for covid, but there is enough serious data and published science for a normal conversation to be had about it, instead of disdain, ridicule and suppression.

It also completely ignores the fact that ivermectin, whatever its merits for covid are, is an actual human medication. It is not a veterinary drug, although it has utility in animals too.

Isn't it as a prescription-only drug for humans (as a dewormer)? In that case, everybody who considers self-medicating with Ivermectin would be using the veterinary supplies (because they can more easily buy the intended-for-horses version), which the associated risks of overdosing.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#418

Post by whimsicalism » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:38 PM UTC

AzzieElbab wrote: post #260

dehrmann wrote: post #55

Fauci (and the CDC) lying about masks out of fear it would cause a shortage for healthcare providers burnt a lot of trust quickly. It probably helped the US get into the polarized situation it's in now.

Hospitals dont buy masks at COSCO stores and neither does the gov.

But where do the stores buy masks, hm?

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#419

Post by LeifCarrotson » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:40 PM UTC

kelnos wrote: post #272

ssully wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's also worth pointing out that even with them saying masks aren't effective for the public, there was still a run on masks. I don't have the exact date, but when I looked for n95's at my local hardware store in March 2020, they were all gone and this was definitely before we were told to wear masks. And soon after we started getting stories about hospitals running low on PPE. I am not saying what the right…

> American perspective, no matter what the government told people to do, there was going to be a contingent of people that would do the exact opposite because we are a stubborn and distrustful people. Right, but you have to start somewhere. The reason we are distrustful is because past experience with the US government has taught us to be distrustful. The first time the US government applies this idea to trust the pe…

> ...create social stigma around hoarding masks. It won't stop hoarding 100%, but it can help...

That only works in a society with a certain baseline of trust, accountability, and empathy. If you remember 2019, things were already hyper-partisan, a large minority of the population was in a cult of disinformation, and the media was reeling from the shift away from print and moving towards a clickbaiting 24-hour news cycle.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#420

Post by sjwalter » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 10:41 PM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #414

sjwalter wrote: post #411

Dick Thaler, who won a Nobel prize in econ, wrote a book called Nudge (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nudge_(book for more info), which I'd bet good money Fauci and the entire public policy elite have read and internalized. The book is basically about how the ruling class should think about structuring policy and messaging to create the outcomes they desire--"choice architecture". Thaler's work describes how publ…

I'll go mask off: yeah, I think "nudging" is probably necessary in a country where 45% of people legitimately believe in ghosts and 30% believe they've interacted with one before. You've got to be in a serious intellectual bubble to be thinking that most people are carefully considering the options and making the best choices for themselves.

I think the point of view that nearly half of your fellow citizens aren't capable of making good choices is pretty silly.

I think sane citizens supporting patriarchal rulers, especially when those rulers have proven themselves basically selfish and untrustworthy, their shameless behaviour openly on display for decades, is super surprising.

By the way, that's Thaler's own description: patriarchal. He views the ruling class as basically responsible for cajoling and nudging an unruly mass of unthinking golems toward some future state.

It seems you're a big fan of this patriarchs. Seems strange to support that unless you're part of the ruling class. If so, more power to ya, if not, can I ask why you think they're qualified in any way to do this nudging? Why do you think the outcomes they want are going to be good for you personally?