Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#281

Post by 18pfsmt » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 6:33 PM UTC

philovivero wrote: post #252

squeaky-clean wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The link you shared is from March 2021 https://web.archive.org/web/*/https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volum... From a now-deleted tweet from February 29 2020 https://web.archive.org/web/20200229123317/https://twitter.c... > @Surgeon_General > Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS! > They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patien…

Yep. The memory-holing is already going strong. In another year, all those "now-deleted" links won't work anymore, and everyone will keep claiming the government never lied, and you'll be a nutter if you claim the government ever said masks don't work. You'll be banned from all forms of conversation, and labeled "alt-right." The techno-utopia is awesome.

Given that one of Fauci's emails shows the same opinion on mask inefficacy, I believe the lie came in the 180 about face claiming they do work (and there wasn't any cost to imposing them).

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#282

Post by ssully » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 6:34 PM UTC

Jensson wrote: post #266

ssully wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for clarifying. This is why I don't know what the right answer is on the messaging. The US government, and nearly every government, has a history of lying to people. The other side of the coin though is that during those early months, and well into lock down, everything was up in the air about the virus, how it transmitted, and how to fight it. If I was in the position of how to convey that information to p…

> The US government, and nearly every government, has a history of lying to people. This is something you should work to fix rather than just say things like "but the other party lies a bit more, so I also have to lie to defend myself! And people doesn't listen anyway so why does it matter if I lie?" etc. I see so much bullshit people use to defend their sides lies and deception here. To me ensuring the government st…

I agree to an extent, but at the end of the day it's unrealistic. The government is an entity made up of people with their own biases, problems, and their job on the line if they fuck up. I think there is a meme of honorable government employee who will resign before letting down the American people, but the reality is most people (and government employee's) would be more concerned about covering their ass.

This is a long way of me saying that people are liars, the government is made of people, so the government will always lie. Same for partisan pissing matches. The important thing to me is how they react when new information comes to light, or they are caught out on their lies. Or when the lies are big enough (I.E. lead to great suffering), repercussions are put on the table.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#283

Post by notahacker » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 6:34 PM UTC

rob_c wrote: post #29

jerf wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's two aspects to this, I think. One is true protectionism. My objection to this is that if we perhaps had superhumans guiding us mere humans, they might be capable of modulating our information flow to protect us, but mere humans lack this power. Indeed, let's be honest, being a politician is if anything a counter -indicator in being the sort of person capable of dealing with the real issues that arise in a cri…

Broadly after seeing some of the material coming out of the UK "think tanks" in early 2020 this was really "govt, starched collar, upper class" thinking that the proles will start eating themselves if we even mention that there's a chance they could die. I think projected compliance with a lockdown in the UK was initially estimated and serious attempts were made to model it at 40% compliance. When govt got near 95%+…

We still haven't reached herd immunity in the UK, and we have 49 of 67 million people vaccinated (plus some of the rest previously infected). The idea we'd have had fewer COVID casualties by allowing it to spread more easily before the winter is not one supported by evidence.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#284

Post by dragonwriter » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 6:35 PM UTC

greenail wrote: post #134

betterunix2 wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Censorship is not what causes large numbers of US citizens to refuse this vaccine. If the Republicans in leadership positions took this seriously from the start and did not go around casting doubt on vaccination far more people would get the vaccine. If the previous president had not politicized the response to COVID and had simply told his followers to do what the CDC says we would have many millions more people get…

You are assuming "they" trust the Republican leadership. this Gallup poll says only 12% of Americans trust congress. https://news.gallup.com/poll/352316/americans-confidence-maj... Lots of other interesting tidbits about trust in there...

> You are assuming "they" trust the Republican leadership. this Gallup poll says only 12% of Americans trust congress.

Congress ≠ the Republican leadership ≠ at least one member of the Republican leadership, or GOP members aligned therewith, enough to overcome dis- or non-trust of the rest.

“Congress” as an institution usually polls really badly when compared to individual politicians in their own districts, because Congress consists of 535 members, 532 of which the person answering the poll had no say in electing and represent people with different interests living elsewhere, and (usually) approximately half of which represent the least preferred of the two major parties, who usually have the power to at least block legislation (thanks to either split between the partisan majority of the House and Senate or, failing that, the Senate filibuster.)

Trust of either party leadership, and particularly voter’s own members of Congress, tends to be much higher than that of Congress as a whole.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#285

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 6:36 PM UTC

tomp wrote: post #250

rob_c wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not just US, I would say there's a large number of very well educated people even in well off countries who have a large amount of hesitation toward this mainly due to information handling and lack of transparency. (Yes there is a very vocal anti-vax nut job crowd, but frankly that will always be there, and is always different to those who object to policy decisions on moral grounds of their failings and the deaths t…

> "please take it to stop it killing others" Given that the vaccine doesn't work to stop transmissions, I'd reckon this was just another way for the "experts" to further loose trust with the public.

[deleted]

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#286

Post by ssully » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 6:36 PM UTC

kelnos wrote: post #275

bigodbiel wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America is like that from foundation! Distrust in the government is in this nation’s DNA! Right now Gov. Abbott is taking a major stand against Biden’s vaccine mandates.

I hear this a lot, but there's no reason why this has to be the case. The government has a lot to say in how much the people trust it. If they make the first move (and probably the second, and third, and fourth) in being trustworthy and trusting people with information, they can change this perception. It would take decades at minimum, probably longer than our lifetimes, but this doesn't need to be a foregone conclus…

That's why I don't think it's possible. The priorities and operation of the government change whenever the administration/majority changes. Having decades of consistency like that just isn't going to happen.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#287

Post by cloverich » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 6:37 PM UTC

ravenstine wrote: post #238

alkonaut wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you are confusing “statements and policy from available and changing information” with “lies”.

If that's consistent with reality, then what exactly does the CDC exist for if not to study if masks control disease ? SARS-CoV2 isn't the world's first coronavirus by any stretch of the imagination. The fact that seemingly the whole country spent months debating whether masks can stop a virus tells us all we need to know, which is that organizations like the CDC fail . There's zero reason why we had to act like we w…

*reduction after state mask mandates in the united states. It's an important distinction because mask mandates in the US were followed at varying levels, from relatively stringent to barely at all. Separately, I don't think anyone ever claimed masks (outside of a properly fitted n95) stop the virus, only that it reduces the spread. Lastly, if an area's hospitals have only a few open ICU beds available, then even 2% would be significant enough to warrant mandates in the future.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#288

Post by hackingforfun » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 6:38 PM UTC

evandwight wrote: post #246

valeness wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a pretty privileged viewpoint imo. This one small thing lost the public's trust? Not the fact that cops used to pull me over for no reason because I lived in a poor neighborhood? Not the fact that my family member's lives were ruined because of tiny drug-related infractions? Not the fact that we went on a pointless 20+ year war for no reason (just the one within my lifetime)? Really. Wearing a mask is the bre…

I think you are misinterpreting. They lost faith in medical experts. I don't think hes talking about the US system as a whole but instead trusting the advice that vaccines are safe, masks work, etc. Medical advice.

Just so I understand, the one thing about flip flopping on masks cost them to lose faith in all medical experts? Doesn't that seem a little unreasonable? I agree we shouldn't have flip flopped on masks, but I don't think making a whole narrative out of that makes sense.

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#289

Post by remarkEon » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 6:39 PM UTC

NoblePublius wrote: post #181

colordrops wrote: post #10

The article is discussing the media and government being intentionally vague or even misinformative because they don't trust the public, but it backfires and causes more distrust. The flip side that wasn't discussed is the belittling and censoring of voices that were skeptical of the narratives, which engendered even more distrust. Their strategy of information control backfired, and they doubled down. Now we've got…

You’ve got a huge swath of america who doesn’t want the vaccine because they either have superior natural immunity already OR understand that the virus poses little-to-no-risk to them or their family. Covid is essentially equal to the flu in terms of mortality for people under ~55 and children are virtually immune from serious Covid illness.

>Covid is essentially equal to the flu in terms of mortality for people under ~55 and children are virtually immune from serious Covid illness.

Previously this would've been "COVID misinformation", but it isn't anymore as the NYT said it this morning. I'd quibble a bit about natural immunity being "superior" but honestly who knows anymore.

FTA:

>For children without a serious medical condition, the danger of severe Covid is so low as to be difficult to quantify.

[1]https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/12/briefing/covid-age-risk-i...

Re: Covid lesson: trust the public with hard truths

#290

Post by ajkdhcb2 » Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 6:40 PM UTC

hackingforfun wrote: post #264

ajkdhcb2 wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've disagreed with the general global response at essentially every step. I think any reasonable person would have done better, and get the feeling that there are likely ulterior motives and disgraceful politicised actions to explain how bad the response was. In particular, in the beginning there were very clear indications given by Taiwan and China that there was a dangerous virus spreading among the people. Yet si…

> Yet sick Chinese people were free to spread over the world for months with no response except down-playing it. > When politicians knowingly lie to everyone's faces and take harmful actions against the people, pushing toward a more authoritarian society at every opportunity, how can you have any trust and not wonder about conspiracies? Wouldn't pushing toward a more authoritarian society been not allowing sick Chine…

Doing health checks and restricting foreign nationals arriving from specific high risk areas is not extreme at all, that has been done plenty of times. I don't think it is comparable at all to the unprecedented restrictions that become normal in the last 1-2 years.

>Do you think it would have been OK to implement restrictions at the start of the pandemic, just not now?

Yes. In the beginning nobody knew how dangerous the virus was, so risk management should have been much more strict. It could have been a virus orders of magnitude worse than covid.