Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine • Hacker News Board

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#161

Post by twofornone » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:39 PM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #95

nabla9 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like if you take everything into account, taking the vaccine might not provide any benefit from men under 30. Any medical intervention must be beneficial to justify the use. If it's so and so, or equal risk, then it's not done. EDIT: The alternative is not stopping vaccinations. Men under 30 are given Pfizer.

The number of C19 fatalities under 30 in the US appears to easily exceed the number of vaccine-related myocarditis cases. The overwhelming majority of those myocarditis cases followed a benign course. Later Another thing to consider is that the myocarditis rate from C19 itself may exceed that of the vaccine, which would basically refute the argument against vaccination. (By all means, pick vaccines strategically.)

>Another thing to consider is that the myocarditis rate from C19 itself may exceed that of the vaccine, which would basically refute the argument against vaccination

No, because you need to consider not just the odds of getting myocarditis from covid vs vaccine (Pc:Pv), but the bayesian probabilities of getting infected (Pi) or vaccinated (1) and then getting myocarditis, such that the full risk analysis would look more like Pi*Pc:Pv[1]. Point being when you are talking about vaccinating the entire population, you can easily end up in a position where there are more cases of heart inflammation from fully vaccinating the population than simply letting the virus run its course. I believe the term is relative risk reduction but don't quote me.

1. This isn't quite right, there should be a 1-x term or two in there somewhere to account for the probabilities of getting vaccinated/infected and not developing myocarditis, but its been a few years since my probability course...In any case the point still stands, that the vaccine may be less likely to cause heart inflammation does not imply that it would produce fewer cases overall if a sizeable proportion is vaccinated. To properly estimate that you need an accurate estimate for the myocarditis rate from both covid and vaccine, which I don't think anyone has.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#162

Post by 908B64B197 » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:40 PM UTC

nicoburns wrote: post #30

mikeyouse wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The study is preliminary - but they're being cautious and recommending young men switch to the Pfizer vaccine since the risk of myocarditis is lower. But just so people don't get the wrong idea, they're finding that the risk of myocarditis in young men who've actually caught Covid is something like 6x more likely than in those who received the vaccine: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998v... S…

As a young male who got myocarditis from both covid and the vaccine, the other thing that's worth knowing that I wish I'd known earlier: if you do get it, then the best thing to do to prevent long-term damage is to avoid exercise completely (potentially for 6 months to a year, or until you've been cleared by a doctor).

Is rest the only treatment for it?

Also, how was it diagnosed?

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#163

Post by pyronik19 » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:40 PM UTC

floor2 wrote: post #154

noetic_techy wrote: post #110

The problem is that the perception of public trust is eroding significantly the more we learn and the more fervent the mandates become. We pulled the swine flu vaccine for way less back in 2010, I think it was 12 cases of GBS only! The fact that I know of people who have either had mycarditis AND clots tells me the rate is much higher then reported by VAERS. The reason damn near everyone except for adamant anti-vax h…

> let those who want it take the risk This is the fallacy in your argument. It's an infectious disease that spreads through the air. An infected individual will emit particles of the virus which will cause other people to become sick, permanently disabled or potentially die. The rules of society are generally built around preventing and minimizing harm to other people. Sometimes that harm is intentional and obvious,…

>This is the fallacy in your argument. It's an infectious disease that spreads through the air. An infected individual will emit particles of the virus which will cause other people to become sick, permanently disabled or potentially die.

This argument would be stronger if a) People who wanted to be vaccinated couldn't get the vaccine that protects them and b) if vaccinated people themselves weren't able to spread the virus too.

All in all you are cramming down a rushed vaccine down peoples throat at the risk of their livelihoods for marginal impacts in the virus's ability to spread and little significant risk to those who are already vaccinated.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#164

Post by pyronik19 » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:44 PM UTC

iratewizard wrote: post #157

timothycrosley wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While we are sharing meaningless anecdotes, almost everyone I know (since I live in Seattle) has been vaccinated. No one has reported any issues, a couple have since successfully had a child. None have even gotten a breakthrough infection of covid. Among friends I know from back east, who haven't gotten vaccinated, one had just turned 30, only health issue was obesity. He died. One was 35, best shape of any of my fri…

What's the hospitalization rate for 20s - 40s for getting the vaccine? What's the hospitalization rate for covid?

Do we even know the real number? VAERS is highly underreported and how many vaccine cases are just getting labeled as "covid cases"... I love the southpark skit about this "covid related"... worth a watch.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#165

Post by Certhas » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:46 PM UTC

noetic_techy wrote: post #110

The problem is that the perception of public trust is eroding significantly the more we learn and the more fervent the mandates become. We pulled the swine flu vaccine for way less back in 2010, I think it was 12 cases of GBS only! The fact that I know of people who have either had mycarditis AND clots tells me the rate is much higher then reported by VAERS. The reason damn near everyone except for adamant anti-vax h…

Anecdote. Fear mongering. Misleading statistic. Misleading/demonstrably wrong information presented with an air of "obviously". Conspiracy... What is eroding trust in vaccines are narratives like this. You pretend like every single point you raise (accelerated development, VAERS) doesn't have a clear explanation that is readily available with a single search. You pretend as if these "issues" you identify are swept under the rug to push unsafe vaccines on people, when in fact they are openly and frequently discussed. It's a (sadly common) argumentative sleight of hand.

Back when the virus was less infectious and it was plausible to get to herd immunity with 60% of the adults vaccinated, I thought a good information campaign can get you there. In the US about a third of the population believes that Biden won through Voter fraud. Factual information, no matter how well presented or corroborated, only gets you so far if someone with a megaphone has a narrative to push.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#166

Post by pyronik19 » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:47 PM UTC

tw04 wrote: post #152

gorwell wrote: post #59

A lot of comments here asking for specific numbers and making comparisons to other risks. That's exactly how one should be looking at this. What I don't understand is why people don't apply this same critical thought process to the risks of Covid? For example, do you know what the risk of hospitalization from Covid is when unvaccinated? If you said >50%, you would be in good company. It's the most common answer. But…

There isn't a medical system on planet earth that is prepared or capable of having 1% of their population in the hospital at the same time. So " Ignoring the massive financial burden on hospitals who are also not financially setup to have the entire hospital full of people sick with COVID - they are bleeding cash without elective surgeries. They can only bleed for so long without significant government intervention.…

"Beds" is a meaningless figure... it really refers to staff. Now they are massively firing nurses who won't get vaxxed (which should be red flag in and of itself, wonder what they are seeing day to day) which in turn leads to less beds... which then in turn helps justify the "need" for mandates. All of those nurses have been getting daily boosters of covid from actual patients every day and we are pretending like they all don't have preexisting immunity.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#167

Post by nojokes » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:52 PM UTC

kaczordon wrote: post #39

mikeyouse wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The study is preliminary - but they're being cautious and recommending young men switch to the Pfizer vaccine since the risk of myocarditis is lower. But just so people don't get the wrong idea, they're finding that the risk of myocarditis in young men who've actually caught Covid is something like 6x more likely than in those who received the vaccine: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260998v... S…

This isn’t true, the risk for young men 22 and younger from vaccine induced myocarditis exceeds the risk from COVID. Even more true for 17 and younger males: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v... https://www.science.org/news/2021/06/israel-reports-link-bet...

Tracy Beth Høeg was touting ideas against children vaccination well before this study she coauthored.

A cardiologist commentary for this was that raw VAERS data is not to be trusted and CDC will know better. End of story.

This study also seriously underestimates the virus speed and complications.

Do not let any random quack fool you. Verify it.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#168

Post by pyronik19 » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:53 PM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #88

sergiotapia wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's heretical to say such things and "anti-science" as branded by the media. The fact that California now wants kids to get the vaccine is bonkers to me. Kids don't even feel this shit if they catch it. Pharmaceutical companies must be paying big bucks to the politicians in that state.

> Kids don't even feel this shit if they catch it. In general, sure, but that's a bit like arguing people should be able to drive drunk because drunks are more likely to survive a car accident. https://www.scientificamerican.com/podcast/episode/odds-favo... > A retrospective study of nearly 8,000 trauma patients found that seven percent of people who came in sober died of their injuries, while those who were hurt whi…

Then the establishment should just be honest about it instead of trying to fear-porn parents into wanting to "protect your kids from the deadly disease".... Just say.... we are going to put your kids at risk from the vaccine because we think the ends justify the benefits for old people.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#169

Post by deepnotderp » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:54 PM UTC

orf wrote: post #27

~2.7 cases of myocarditis per 100k. Deadly car crashes in the US is about 11 deaths per 100k (between 3.3 and 25 when looking at states directly, 18.2 worldwide average). That's not even counting indirect deaths caused by car fumes. So to the person posting the same thing from new accounts about vaccines being a great risk to yourself, I hope you take driving and crossing the road as seriously as you take getting vac…

I think it's interesting that your comment is being interpreted as downplaying the risks of covid and is getting anger because of that.

An interesting lesson in human psychology.

Re: Finland joins Sweden and Denmark in limiting Moderna Covid-19 vaccine

#170

Post by justsee » Thu, Oct 07, 2021, 9:56 PM UTC

cletus wrote: post #147

noetic_techy wrote: post #110

The problem is that the perception of public trust is eroding significantly the more we learn and the more fervent the mandates become. We pulled the swine flu vaccine for way less back in 2010, I think it was 12 cases of GBS only! The fact that I know of people who have either had mycarditis AND clots tells me the rate is much higher then reported by VAERS. The reason damn near everyone except for adamant anti-vax h…

> The problem is that the perception of public trust is eroding significantly ... There are many problems. That's not one of them. Here is a better list of problems: 1. People don't understand what "research" means. Hint: watching a Youtube video with no peer-reviewed research is not "research"; 2. People fundamentally don't understand and assess risk correctly. This long predates the anti-vaxxer hyseria. It's why, f…

You seem to have a few misconceptions here:

1. That only uneducated 'researchers' have concerns, and ill-formed ones. Petrovsky, as a leading vaccine developer, outlines a clear, educated position on why it's still reasonable to have concerns over the current options [1]

2. That because billions of doses have been administered, there are no serious problems. You can certainly make a very sound case that Covid side effects are worse in defence of using these current options. But they are irrefutably far less safe and effective (relatively) than any other vaccines authorised and widely used over the last few decades. Considering this it's understandable why there is still concern over overdone claims around the safety of the current options. Even in a pandemic numerous regulatory authorities have had to add additional warnings and modify use of the current options.

3. Your last cited point on Covid deaths is very wrong. You just need to look at UK statistics (and other countries) to realise there is something very, very odd about the claimed US stats from the CDC.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yL_2Rq1zoRg&t=3063s