Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England • Hacker News Board

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#31

Post by obelos » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 4:46 PM UTC

human wrote: post #9

I have been looking for one number. Maybe someone can help me. What is the mortality rate for unvaxxed healthy adults between the age of 18 and 50? I can’t help but be dubious that this group needs vaccination.

How can we be 18 months into a global pandemic and so many people still not understand that diseases are contagious and “healthy” people who manage to avoid dying from the disease still spread it and also take away healthcare resources from other people who need treatment for any number of injuries and maladies?

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#32

Post by cortesoft » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 4:46 PM UTC

human wrote: post #9

I have been looking for one number. Maybe someone can help me. What is the mortality rate for unvaxxed healthy adults between the age of 18 and 50? I can’t help but be dubious that this group needs vaccination.

Personally surviving is only one of the reasons you should get vaccinated. It also helps reduce the prevalence of covid in the community in general, which will prevent other people from dying, not just the person who is vaccinated.

This is the same thing with wearing masks... you can't just look at the effect on the person wearing the mask, but also on other people around them.

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#33

Post by howlong » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 4:46 PM UTC

almost_usual wrote: post #18

human wrote: post #9

I have been looking for one number. Maybe someone can help me. What is the mortality rate for unvaxxed healthy adults between the age of 18 and 50? I can’t help but be dubious that this group needs vaccination.

Mortality only matters to you. Hospitalization matters to everyone.

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736...

This study suggests about 0.5% of unvaccinated population requires hospitalization.

Obviously just one study, but across about six million people, seems a decent back of the envelope guess.

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#34

Post by lokedhs » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 4:47 PM UTC

Claudus wrote: post #20

allturtles wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this is a particularly interesting stat without a baseline of what % of people fell into that category. Since this is computed over the time period January 2 to July 2 and mass vaccination didn't really take off until the spring, you wouldn't have a large number of people in that category until near the end of the study period.

Yes, what is the the overall mortality rate for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. Ballpark estimates looking at the vaccination rate over time, it seems like vaccinated people had almost double the mortality rate of unvaccinated. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations Vaccinated are less likely to die of Covid-19, but more likely to die? Not very reassuring.

Well, if you think about who got vaccinated first, it should be pretty obvious why that is the case, don't you think?

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#35

Post by tomrod » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 4:47 PM UTC

lmilcin wrote: post #10

allturtles wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this is a particularly interesting stat without a baseline of what % of people fell into that category. Since this is computed over the time period January 2 to July 2 and mass vaccination didn't really take off until the spring, you wouldn't have a large number of people in that category until near the end of the study period.

I think you need to read it again. Especially table 1. In the data they have they found that: 1. For all unvaccinated people, they had 38,964 covid-related deaths and 65,170 of other, non-covid-related deaths of unvaccinated people. 2. For all vaccinated people 21 days or more after second dose they found 458 covid-related and 57,263 non-covid-related deaths. It doesn't matter when these were recorded (unless we want…

The ratio of Vax vs. Non-vax death proportions is 1.3%.

So,50X to 100X reduction in deaths versus all-cause

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#36

Post by lmilcin » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 4:47 PM UTC

newbamboo wrote: post #13

allturtles wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this is a particularly interesting stat without a baseline of what % of people fell into that category. Since this is computed over the time period January 2 to July 2 and mass vaccination didn't really take off until the spring, you wouldn't have a large number of people in that category until near the end of the study period.

As stated in the report, “ the characteristics of the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are changing over time, which limits the usefulness of comparing counts between the groups.”

It is still useful to be able to answer "What was your chance of dying of covid compared to all other types of deaths based on your vaccination status".

Because if you can't do that you can compare data even with the status and vaccination rates changing over time.

So even if we lump together all different cases at different times saying that person in this class of people had less than 1% of chance of dying to covid vs. another class where you had 30% of chance of dying to covid is a clear indication that one class was much more resistant to dying than other.

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#37

Post by Claudus » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 4:48 PM UTC

cortesoft wrote: post #26

Claudus wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, what is the the overall mortality rate for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. Ballpark estimates looking at the vaccination rate over time, it seems like vaccinated people had almost double the mortality rate of unvaccinated. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations Vaccinated are less likely to die of Covid-19, but more likely to die? Not very reassuring.

Depends on the demographics of who gets vaccinated and who doesn't. If the elderly get vaccinated at a higher rate, it seems normal that vaccinated people would have a higher non-covid mortality rate. It is also not surprising if healthy people are less likely to get vaccinated.

Wouldn’t the original study depend on demographics as well? If the young get vaccinated at a higher rate, it seems normal that unvaccinated people would have a higher covid mortality rate.

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#38

Post by elliekelly » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 4:48 PM UTC

Claudus wrote: post #20

allturtles wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this is a particularly interesting stat without a baseline of what % of people fell into that category. Since this is computed over the time period January 2 to July 2 and mass vaccination didn't really take off until the spring, you wouldn't have a large number of people in that category until near the end of the study period.

Yes, what is the the overall mortality rate for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. Ballpark estimates looking at the vaccination rate over time, it seems like vaccinated people had almost double the mortality rate of unvaccinated. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations Vaccinated are less likely to die of Covid-19, but more likely to die? Not very reassuring.

I don’t see any mortality data for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated in your link?

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#39

Post by sprawld » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 4:48 PM UTC

lmilcin wrote: post #10

allturtles wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this is a particularly interesting stat without a baseline of what % of people fell into that category. Since this is computed over the time period January 2 to July 2 and mass vaccination didn't really take off until the spring, you wouldn't have a large number of people in that category until near the end of the study period.

I think you need to read it again. Especially table 1. In the data they have they found that: 1. For all unvaccinated people, they had 38,964 covid-related deaths and 65,170 of other, non-covid-related deaths of unvaccinated people. 2. For all vaccinated people 21 days or more after second dose they found 458 covid-related and 57,263 non-covid-related deaths. It doesn't matter when these were recorded (unless we want…

Yes although the vaccine was given first to the most vulnerable people (ie more likely to die from other things) so this still doesn't give a clear sense of the improvement. No one is doubting the effectiveness of vaccines (ok a bunch of idiots, but not me) but this isn't the most helpful stat to assess the relative improvement.

Re: Deaths involving Covid-19 by vaccination status, England

#40

Post by ddek » Wed, Sep 15, 2021, 4:48 PM UTC

Claudus wrote: post #20

allturtles wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think this is a particularly interesting stat without a baseline of what % of people fell into that category. Since this is computed over the time period January 2 to July 2 and mass vaccination didn't really take off until the spring, you wouldn't have a large number of people in that category until near the end of the study period.

Yes, what is the the overall mortality rate for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. Ballpark estimates looking at the vaccination rate over time, it seems like vaccinated people had almost double the mortality rate of unvaccinated. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations Vaccinated are less likely to die of Covid-19, but more likely to die? Not very reassuring.

UK had strict age-banded rollout, starting with the eldest. By the end of this study, I had just had my first dose (I'm 27, and I booked it as soon as possible). It's not at all surprising that older populations were more likely to die.