Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now • Hacker News Board

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#391

Post by IAmEveryone » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 4:54 PM UTC

tzs wrote: post #246

mchusma wrote: post #139

The whole booster conversation seems like a political game. If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically). If you don't have a vaccine by now, you want covid instead and this booster conversation is irrelevant. Kids are banned from taking anything. So I expect booster or no booster, frankly it just won't matter much at the population scale. I also don't understand the mas…

> If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically). That seems worth checking. US flu deaths per year over the last 10 years ranged from 12000 to 61000, averaging 35900 [1]. That's 3.7 to 18.6 per 100k, averaging 10.9 per 100k. Weekly COVID deaths among vaccinated people is 0.1 per 100k [2]. The flu season is typically about 8 months. A weekly death rate of 0.1 per 100k over…

You can’t discount COVID deaths by using yearly flu deaths, but then only extrapolating to 8 months. Think of the other four months as “low-activity flu-months” and should be obvious why. You are intuitively mixing an attempt to estimate risk per year and risk per infection, I believe.

I’m also not entirely sure how good surveillance is for the flu? I could imagine it being recorded as “pneumonia” or “respiratory arrest”, especially when it affects poorer people, or those not admitted to hospitals.

(please not that the two issues above would pull any conclusion into opposite directions, then reflect on the relative amounts of hate and love, respectively, before deciding that I must be wrong because disagree)

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#392

Post by Madmallard » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 4:56 PM UTC

detaro wrote: post #378

SV_BubbleTime wrote: post #375

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm sure they had a reason, but in 70 years of vaccines, we've never had a side effect after 2 months. Have we ever had mRNA vaccines?

no, but nothing about the mechanism of mRNA vaccines suggests they'd be an exception in that regard, since mRNA is very short-lived and thus if you'd get long-term effects, you'd have them from other delivery methods too.

As Vinay Prasad would say, It is often our mechanistic understanding that misaligns with study results. All we can do is test.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#393

Post by SV_BubbleTime » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 4:56 PM UTC

zamalek wrote: post #280

mchusma wrote: post #139

The whole booster conversation seems like a political game. If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically). If you don't have a vaccine by now, you want covid instead and this booster conversation is irrelevant. Kids are banned from taking anything. So I expect booster or no booster, frankly it just won't matter much at the population scale. I also don't understand the mas…

> Is it to protect the vaccinated? Unfortunately, yes. The unvaccinated are a fertile ground for strains to develop. Protecting the unvaccinated is in your own best interest. We're going to need new vaccines when the the virus evolves in the unvaccinated, but the vaccinated can delay that eventuality.

Do you know about ADE?

People with a vaccine that doesn’t stop infection may have a higher chance and time to help develop mutations in order for it to survive.

It was extremely dangerous to push an imperfect vaccine, and because we know the current ones do not stop infection, transmission, or lower the viral load, that might be what has happened. IDK, not an epidemiologist.

https://www.chop.edu/centers-programs/vaccine-education-cent...

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#394

Post by lamontcg » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 4:58 PM UTC

throwaway20371 wrote: post #370

alexktz wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For those who get a vaccine 8 months ago, it’s almost worthless now. You need to back this claim up with data please.

Good point - another data point that is actually not one, but many. There are 13 different COVID-19 vaccines around the globe, which work in different ways. "The overall age-adjusted vaccine effectiveness against infection for all New York adults declined from 91.7% to 79.8%." - https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e1.htm?s_cid=mm... "Two doses of mRNA vaccines were 74.7% effective against infection among nur…

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e2.htm

77% efficacy against infection for Pfizer, 92% efficacy against infection for Moderna in the US.

Really wish people would stop saying vaccines have waned to uselessness. That just isn't even true for VE against infection. All the studies that I see at the lower level of ~50% VE against infection are highly problematic (there was a study of healthcare workers in San Diego where their unvaccinated control was only monitored via PCR for infection and only had a 3x increase of infections during the delta spike in Jul which suggests their unvaccinated controls had a significant amount of natural resistance or were taking many more precautions).

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#395

Post by SV_BubbleTime » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 4:59 PM UTC

beamatronic wrote: post #306

mchusma wrote: post #139

The whole booster conversation seems like a political game. If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically). If you don't have a vaccine by now, you want covid instead and this booster conversation is irrelevant. Kids are banned from taking anything. So I expect booster or no booster, frankly it just won't matter much at the population scale. I also don't understand the mas…

The risk to the vaccinated increases over time, as the protection wears off. Not to mention, the original version of the virus is gone, it has been outcompeted by the variants. The booster should be updated to work against the latest dominant variants. Think of it as a software update.

> Not to mention, the original version of the virus is gone, it has been outcompeted by the variants.

No, that is not true. Also, for note, there are ZERO tests for variants so you know. It must be genetically sequenced. All the data we have is from sampling. Last report I saw put delta at 20% of Covid cases in the UK based on sampling sewage water which seems like it could have a high margin of error. But I’m open minded if you have a different source.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#396

Post by gorwell » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 5:01 PM UTC

nafix wrote: post #206

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you don't have a vaccine by now, you want covid instead and this booster conversation is irrelevant Friend’s mother visiting from Jamaica. People in her country are dying while they wait for first shots. The voluntarily unvaccinated in America are idiots. The author’s point is there are billions of unvoluntarily unvaccinated around the world to whom these doses could go.

It's highly ignorant to call unvaccinated Americans idiots. Over 100 million Americans have already caught and recovered from Covid. I imagine many in that group don't see any value in getting the vaccine (rightfully so).

It's not only ignorant of the science, as you point out regarding prior immunity, but highly ignorant of history and social dynamics. Creating an underclass that is considered diseased and "dangerous to us" ends badly, to say the least.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ten_stages_of_genocide

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dehumanization

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#397

Post by vaidhy » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 5:02 PM UTC

spfzero wrote: post #312

mr_overalls wrote: post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Choosing to risk catching a disease with a 1-2% case fatality rate, while refusing an overwhelmingly safe and effective vaccine is the definition of idiocy.

If they've already had and recovered from Covid, as in the case of this 100 MM, their case fatality rate is nothing near that, and may well be lower than that for vaccinated-but-never-infected people. Their choice is this, if they are otherwise healthy and young: With protection as good or better than the vaccinated, should I get a shot that might lower my already minuscule chance of dying or serious disease by a fur…

Let us assume person x already got covid? The rationale for refusing the vaccine is either (a) they believe they do not need it or (b) they do so on ideological belief.

If it is (a), evidence shows that covid + vaccine is better than either alone and hence no reason to refuse the vaccine.

If it is (b), there is perfect justification for calling that stancy as an idiotic stance.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#398

Post by BitwiseFool » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 5:03 PM UTC

bedhead wrote: post #190

delecti wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Considering the head start they had on most of the world and the vaccine supplies this can't be described as anything other than a complete and utter failure on all levels. That's probably why the GP comment described it as "their"(our) maximum vaccination percentage. The vaccine and virus have both been politicized too much, and too many people are obstinately refusing it as a result.

It feels like more and more people whom I would consider very partisan (either side) simply act out of spite nowadays. Whatever the other side wants, well, we're just going to unconditionally fight it. You saw this accelerate after Trump won with "Resist", an ethos that literally means to defy regardless of circumstances. And now you see the right's version of "Resist" by avoiding vaccinations. Why? Because screw the…

The one that made me the most upset was how large gatherings were bad, unless one was protesting about racial injustice. In which case, don't worry, those protestors had masks on.

Well, if merely having a mask on in a thousands large march is okay, why not just allow all sized gatherings provided one is wearing a face covering?

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#399

Post by betwixthewires » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 5:03 PM UTC

rattlesnakedave wrote: post #213

thesis wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes. Idiots? All this condescension all the time. Maybe some people won’t get the vaccine because they already had Covid. Israeli study showed that people who had Covid are more protected than the vaccinated.

I’m not sure what else you would call someone with such a skewed risk assessment that they think taking a vaccine that has proven to be incredibly safe and effective, provided free of charge, isn’t worth their time. Research has not yet shown how long you are protected from getting COVID-19 again after you recover from COVID-19. We have a much better idea with the vaccines. Even more, studies suggest that unvaccinate…

Alright so I'd like you to draw me a picture of your reasoning behind the statement that we do not know how long immunity from infection lasts but we have a better idea with the vaccines. Because in the world I live in, we have had infections longer than vaccines, which means more data on immunity from infections than vaccines. Where did you get that statement from and why did you say it?

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#400

Post by IAmEveryone » Tue, Sep 14, 2021, 5:06 PM UTC

pkulak wrote: post #261

tw04 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Is it to protect kids? If so, then all that effort is better directed at the FDA who has banned them from getting the vaccine. I think this is the area where people should have the most anger and Biden should frankly push legislation to replace or reform the FDA. Their behavior has been atrocious. What specifically has been atrocious? The FDA has ALWAYS been extremely cautious in approving vaccinations for children.…

The FDA initially wanted 2 months of data for under 12, just like adults. Then they changed their minds and wanted 6 months instead. I'm sure they had a reason, but in 70 years of vaccines, we've never had a side effect after 2 months. If they changed their minds once, they can damn well do it again and get this thing out there. Then there's the objections (and resignations) to the booster. The specific reasons being…

I believe part of the difficulty was the lull in infections before delta, plus the effectiveness of school closures. If nobody is getting sick, you cannot say anything about effectiveness.

I don’t know if they want proof of effectiveness again, or are specifically looking at risk (which would not be impacted by the above).

If guess the risk of death is so low among children, you need far more data to exclude a risk from vaccination at that (small) magnitude. Think of helmets, and how they are exactly as comfortable to wear in a car as they are on a motorcycle.