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Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

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Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#381

Post by sradman »

tguvot wrote: post #318
sradman wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the misinterpretation is mainly by the media and the general public. When most of your population is vaccinated and most of the serious disease is in the unvaccinated, you need to report by rate and vaccination status as the Ontario Science Table [1] now does (rather than absolute case numbers). Simpson's Paradox is more of a data artifact that you have to be aware of. I didn't know about this statistical ano…

i know. as i said he miscalculated efficiency for age cohorts. israeli data for most age ranges is 45 to 25 percent lower than his calculated 95%-99%+ efficiency. So maybe, as paradox it's nice, but as calculation go, they suck. and now everybody running around with this site as proof that there is no need in booster because efficiency is still 95%

Do you have a link to the full age cohort effectiveness numbers? I didn't think these numbers were published yet, if they are or don't exhibit Simpson's Paradox then the question is what accounts for the discrepancy with the UK and Canadian data and the immunological lab research done by Shane Crotty and Rockefeller [1].

[1] https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-717/

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#382

Post by LurkingPenguin »

blagie wrote: post #352
LurkingPenguin wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We do have multiple studies about how immunity wanes over time from vaccination. Those provide better ground-truth data than theoretical arguments. I believe the studies you're referring to are those that address efficacy against symptomatic infection, not severe illness. Unless you're in a high-risk group because of age or comorbidities, with two doses of an mRNA vaccine within the past 8 months, to my knowledge a…

Now we're getting into value systems. - How much do you value your life? - How much do you value the trip? - How much do you worry about spending two weeks in a hospital? - How much do you mind memory lapses and brain fog from long COVID? From what you wrote, it's clear we have at least somewhat different value systems. Since you're an avid traveler, you should realize that's good, common, and healthy.

The subtle implication of your comment seems to be that I value my life and health less than you do? If so, I think that's unfair. But I'm happy to roll with it. If, in the face of substantial evidence that two doses of one of the mRNA vaccines remain highly effective at preventing hospitalization and death 8 months on, you still cannot tolerate the potential that you could end up in a hospital in a developing country, suffer from long COVID following infection and/or die, logic dictates that you should reconsider travel.

You might strongly believe or suspect that a booster will provide meaningful additional protection to you, but the ongoing booster debate reflects the fact that at the current time, there is no conclusive proof that a booster will definitely reduce risk in healthy already vaccinated individuals, nor has any potential risk reduction that booster proponents believe exists been conclusively quantified.

Put simply, just because one believes that they have meaningfully increased protection from a booster does not necessarily mean that they actually do. Science will eventually tell us but the data isn't in yet.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#383

Post by setgree »

JohnWhigham wrote: post #353
setgree wrote: post #258

I just got an unsanctioned booster in NY (a 2nd J&J). I expect a 2nd J&J, though classified as a booster, to provide an immunogenic response comparable to a second dose of Moderna or Pfizer; the fact that J&J marketed itself as a 1-dose rather than 2-dose solution seems to have been motivated by a desire to get to market faster [0] rather than something intrinsic about the vaccine, and we already know that one dose o…

Get a 2nd dose of what? J&J? I'm in the same boat as you (also got J&J). I thought it was temporarily pulled off the market by the FDA too?

yes J&J, and yes, it's back on the market; it got pulled off for like a week or two in April but returned shortly thereafter:

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-and-...

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#384

Post by logifail »

toast0 wrote: post #203
logifail wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> From the CDC > > Everyone 6 months and older should get a flu vaccine every season with rare exceptions According to the Nuffield Trust[0], international flu vaccination coverage varies widely. It appears from the chart the US is only reaching 65% - 70% of their over-65s with annual flu vaccine. How much does it cost to get the annual flu vaccine in the US? [0] https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/resource/adult-flu-va…

> How much does it cost to get the annual flu vaccine in the US? As with all things in the US healthcare system, nobody knows how much anything costs. That said, annual flu vaccine is included under mandatory no direct user cost vaccinations in insurance plans covered by the Affordable Care Act (although your insurer can pick and choose what locations they'll cover).

> As with all things in the US healthcare system, nobody knows how much anything costs

Once things are opaque one has to start wondering about motivations, financial incentives and the underlying politics.

Getting the vaccine into another wealthy & healthy child "for free" vs getting the vaccine into one poor & elderly adult ("but who will pay?") would appear to have very different outcomes, at least based on what we thought we knew about seasonal flu. The wealthy & healthy child might end up being off school for half a day less (maybe). It's almost certainly a bigger deal for the poor & elderly adult.

Perhaps it's just a lot easier to convince the healthy & wealthy family to take their kids to the pharmacy and have the insurer (cough) foot the bill?

Side note: the EU doesn't seem to be that keen on vaccinating healthy youngsters against seasonal flu[0]

"The immunity that is elicited by influenza vaccines is not as long lived as the immunity following natural influenza infection. This is especially so for individuals in the so-called risk groups, hence people have to be vaccinated annually [..]

The main strategy of immunisation programmes in Europe is to directly or indirectly protect the more vulnerable individuals"

[0] https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/seasonal-influenza/prevention-...

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#385

Post by tastyfreeze »

nafix wrote: post #206
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you don't have a vaccine by now, you want covid instead and this booster conversation is irrelevant Friend’s mother visiting from Jamaica. People in her country are dying while they wait for first shots. The voluntarily unvaccinated in America are idiots. The author’s point is there are billions of unvoluntarily unvaccinated around the world to whom these doses could go.

It's highly ignorant to call unvaccinated Americans idiots. Over 100 million Americans have already caught and recovered from Covid. I imagine many in that group don't see any value in getting the vaccine (rightfully so).

Anecdote to support your statement: A close friend that tested positive for COVID last year works at a hospital. They saw no value in getting vaccinated since they had already been infected and recovered. They were given an ultimatum last month of "get vaccinated or find a new job".

Reason has left the building.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#386

Post by gentryb »

setgree wrote: post #314
gentryb wrote: post #305

I put myself out there as a frontline healthcare worker and was vaccinated prior to Christmas. My second dose fell before the 1/20 time frame by over a week. It was a one-off thing for me - trying to help - did COVID testing and vaccination until late April... As one of the first groups of people to be vaccinated, I am concerned that my immune response is starting to lessen. It's sad and ironic that if I were the typ…

are you still on the frontline? If so I'd personally be less worried about getting severely ill because you've probably had many small doses of exposure in your time there. Which is not precisely equivalent to a vaccine but is in the same ballpark.

I am not. I reported something and was fired the next day. I was also wearing a PAPR (N100 Powered Air Purifying Resperator) for the time I was doing testing. Though I was in close contact with many infected patients, I was also in pretty hardcore PPE. I'm doing much more photography for now and some music work as I find the right place in tech again.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#387

Post by serf »

beamatronic wrote: post #310
tzs wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically). That seems worth checking. US flu deaths per year over the last 10 years ranged from 12000 to 61000, averaging 35900 [1]. That's 3.7 to 18.6 per 100k, averaging 10.9 per 100k. Weekly COVID deaths among vaccinated people is 0.1 per 100k [2]. The flu season is typically about 8 months. A weekly death rate of 0.1 per 100k over…

Any kind of equivalence statement to the flu is a well-known conservative "dog whistle"

that's exactly why you should rethink the concept of a 'dog whistle'.

1 ) painting an individual politically by extrapolating a single opinion across their entire persona is irresponsible and over-simple.

2 ) 'conservative' is over-generalized to the point of uselessness and ambiguity.

it's a concept (dog whistle) that is used strictly for generating rage and calling other individuals to arms so that the crowd picks up torches and pitchforks and follows your lede in attacking an individual's opinion with as little prompting or individual thought as possible.

the classification and announcement of a 'dog whistle' makes civil conversation near impossible afterwards, even if those who announce it are dead-wrong or working in poor faith against an individual.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#388

Post by gentryb »

beamatronic wrote: post #308
gentryb wrote: post #305

I put myself out there as a frontline healthcare worker and was vaccinated prior to Christmas. My second dose fell before the 1/20 time frame by over a week. It was a one-off thing for me - trying to help - did COVID testing and vaccination until late April... As one of the first groups of people to be vaccinated, I am concerned that my immune response is starting to lessen. It's sad and ironic that if I were the typ…

"It's easier to regret something you have done, than something you haven't done"

I so want to respond with Orbital lyrics... but this is a very good point.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#389

Post by ChrisClark »

alexktz wrote: post #345
newbamboo wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get so frustrated by this stuff. Here’s where you went wrong. Your number is not based on efficacy last week. It’s cumulative! The vaccine efficacy wanes. For those who get a vaccine 8 months ago, it’s almost worthless now. The worst part of you logic, you lump all risk groups together! A 90 year old is not a 20 year old. Argh! People have been doing this, even public health people, since the beginning of the pande…

> For those who get a vaccine 8 months ago, it’s almost worthless now. You need to back this claim up with data please.

Pretty sure he thinks antibody count is the same as being protected. And since antibodies fade over time, he thinks the protection fades. But the immune system is immensely more complicated with memory cells and such.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#390

Post by cloverich »

IG_Semmelweiss wrote: post #177
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> hospital beds are overrun with unvaccinated Covid patients, there is less room for others Was in Jackson Hole for Labor Day weekend. They border Idaho, whose voluntarily unvaccinated have filled its hospitals. In four days I met as many nurses and one doctor who quit out of frustration. They could no longer empathise with their patients, each describing a visceral anger at tending to ICUs of COVID patients, all unv…

I was there too. I was also in Boise, and Twin Falls, ID. I went to no less than 20 doctors or nurses in the space of 2 weeks Not one doctor mentioned anything about quitting or being short-staffed.

This is definitely one of the reasons I bailed after Medical school. Unvaccinated COVID patients are new, but that kind of decision making is not. Once I realized medicine was as much begging people to make good decisions as it was actually helping people, I just didn't think I could spend a lifetime doing that. Anecdotally, the few physician contacts I've kept are regularly posting about how much they are working. Which is impressive, because to them working 60+ hours a week is not considered too much.
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