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Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

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Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#301

Post by 13415 »

swader999 wrote: post #50
technothrasher wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What data are you referencing to claim that the vaccines do not provide some immunity? But importantly, the vaccines do reduce transmission. See the below study along with others. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2107717 Admittedly, one weakness of the above study is that it took place before Delta was widespread. There isn't a lot of data yet on how much the vaccines reduce transmission with Delta, but the…

Reducing transmission isn't good enough! If you have an R naught above one you're still in trouble. It's common knowledge that countries with highest vaccination rates have spikes in cases right now. Israel and Gibraltar for example. Herd immunity for this was always impossible.

As a counterpoint, Portugal currently has 81.10% fully vaccinated and 86.85% vaccinated once (meaning they'll be vaccinated again in 4 weeks or earlier), and the new infections are going down slowly but continuously for a while now.

My point is not that you're wrong, but that you were cherry picking examples and there can be numerous other reasons for spikes in infections such as relaxed measures and mask mandates, holiday season, schools re-opening, etc. It requires a more careful analysis than yours.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#302

Post by wyager »

tzs wrote: post #246
mchusma wrote: post #139

The whole booster conversation seems like a political game. If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically). If you don't have a vaccine by now, you want covid instead and this booster conversation is irrelevant. Kids are banned from taking anything. So I expect booster or no booster, frankly it just won't matter much at the population scale. I also don't understand the mas…

> If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically). That seems worth checking. US flu deaths per year over the last 10 years ranged from 12000 to 61000, averaging 35900 [1]. That's 3.7 to 18.6 per 100k, averaging 10.9 per 100k. Weekly COVID deaths among vaccinated people is 0.1 per 100k [2]. The flu season is typically about 8 months. A weekly death rate of 0.1 per 100k over…

Flu is under-diagnosed compared to covid because it kills a lot of old people and their cause of death is frequently not listed as flu. With covid, every death that might be attributable to it is counted. So it’s probably actually a more extreme difference under a fair comparison.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#303

Post by slices »

spywaregorilla wrote: post #268
bwship wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most vaccines contain the actual virus. This vaccine does not.

Some of them are traditional inactivated virus vaccines. If that's your only point of concern, you should simply be advocating for J&J. All of them still work by teaching your own immune system.

the difference with the J&J isn't the payload (spike protein), it's the delivery mechanism (adenovirus vs. mRNA)

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#304

Post by _ea1k »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #149
Ambolia wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems more an acknowledgement that zero-Covid is never ever going to happen. At which point not sure if vaccinating outside of risk populations or to control hospitalizations if they are too high makes any sense.

> not sure if vaccinating outside of risk populations or to control hospitalizations if they are too high makes any sense Based on this logic, flu shots are useless. As is any treatment without guaranteed success, i.e. most medicine. (Note: prioritising vaccinating when hospitals fill up is programmatically, repeatedly peaking the healthcare system. It will do to it what repeatedly flooring the gas and hard braking w…

I don't see how that follows from his statement. Maybe something more like "based on this logic, flu shots should be targetted at high risk populations or to control hospitalizations". Doesn't France already do something like that with the flu vaccine?

Given the risk variability with coronavirus, I'm not sure that it would make sense to approach it the same way, but targeting highest risk populations still seems very different from "prioritising vaccinating when hospitals fill up".

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#305

Post by gentryb »

I put myself out there as a frontline healthcare worker and was vaccinated prior to Christmas. My second dose fell before the 1/20 time frame by over a week.

It was a one-off thing for me - trying to help - did COVID testing and vaccination until late April... As one of the first groups of people to be vaccinated, I am concerned that my immune response is starting to lessen.

It's sad and ironic that if I were the type to lie at all about this, I'd even have my state paying me to get a first vaccination - no ID required...

It's a hard decision - and I suppose my actions may depend on how booster shots are or are not approved.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#306

Post by beamatronic »

mchusma wrote: post #139

The whole booster conversation seems like a political game. If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically). If you don't have a vaccine by now, you want covid instead and this booster conversation is irrelevant. Kids are banned from taking anything. So I expect booster or no booster, frankly it just won't matter much at the population scale. I also don't understand the mas…

The risk to the vaccinated increases over time, as the protection wears off.

Not to mention, the original version of the virus is gone, it has been outcompeted by the variants. The booster should be updated to work against the latest dominant variants. Think of it as a software update.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#307

Post by ufo »

adolph wrote: post #275
pkulak wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The FDA initially wanted 2 months of data for under 12, just like adults. Then they changed their minds and wanted 6 months instead. I'm sure they had a reason, but in 70 years of vaccines, we've never had a side effect after 2 months. If they changed their minds once, they can damn well do it again and get this thing out there. Then there's the objections (and resignations) to the booster. The specific reasons being…

How are they going to model efficacy if child mortality is very low already?

I think the first efficacy data is going to be about preventing infections. Data about preventing deaths will take longer to obtain.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#308

Post by beamatronic »

gentryb wrote: post #305

I put myself out there as a frontline healthcare worker and was vaccinated prior to Christmas. My second dose fell before the 1/20 time frame by over a week. It was a one-off thing for me - trying to help - did COVID testing and vaccination until late April... As one of the first groups of people to be vaccinated, I am concerned that my immune response is starting to lessen. It's sad and ironic that if I were the typ…

"It's easier to regret something you have done, than something you haven't done"

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#309

Post by [deleted] »

mr_overalls wrote: post #269
nafix wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's highly ignorant to call unvaccinated Americans idiots. Over 100 million Americans have already caught and recovered from Covid. I imagine many in that group don't see any value in getting the vaccine (rightfully so).

Choosing to risk catching a disease with a 1-2% case fatality rate, while refusing an overwhelmingly safe and effective vaccine is the definition of idiocy.

[deleted]

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#310

Post by beamatronic »

tzs wrote: post #246
mchusma wrote: post #139

The whole booster conversation seems like a political game. If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically). If you don't have a vaccine by now, you want covid instead and this booster conversation is irrelevant. Kids are banned from taking anything. So I expect booster or no booster, frankly it just won't matter much at the population scale. I also don't understand the mas…

> If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically). That seems worth checking. US flu deaths per year over the last 10 years ranged from 12000 to 61000, averaging 35900 [1]. That's 3.7 to 18.6 per 100k, averaging 10.9 per 100k. Weekly COVID deaths among vaccinated people is 0.1 per 100k [2]. The flu season is typically about 8 months. A weekly death rate of 0.1 per 100k over…

Any kind of equivalence statement to the flu is a well-known conservative "dog whistle"
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