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Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

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Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#361

Post by d0mine »

newbamboo wrote: post #338
tzs wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically). That seems worth checking. US flu deaths per year over the last 10 years ranged from 12000 to 61000, averaging 35900 [1]. That's 3.7 to 18.6 per 100k, averaging 10.9 per 100k. Weekly COVID deaths among vaccinated people is 0.1 per 100k [2]. The flu season is typically about 8 months. A weekly death rate of 0.1 per 100k over…

I get so frustrated by this stuff. Here’s where you went wrong. Your number is not based on efficacy last week. It’s cumulative! The vaccine efficacy wanes. For those who get a vaccine 8 months ago, it’s almost worthless now. The worst part of you logic, you lump all risk groups together! A 90 year old is not a 20 year old. Argh! People have been doing this, even public health people, since the beginning of the pande…

Good news: it may actually last several years not months: "A series of new studies, including two led by Ellebedy, suggests that mRNA vaccines like those from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna trigger the immune system to establish long-term protection against severe COVID-19 — protection that likely will last several years or even longer, Ellebedy says." https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/08/30/1032520...

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#362

Post by iszomer »

evgen wrote: post #289
Akronymus wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I remember, it started with saying you'd be stupid to take "the trump vaccine". (In less pleasant language) To me, it seems to have been politicized by the left first. This in combination with the RAPID flip of the coverage/opinion from the left after Biden took the presidency seems like a pretty good explanation for a good part of the rights defiance.

NO ONE was calling it 'the Trump vaccine.' No one. No one on the left was polarizing response to Covid other than complaining that the current government was downplaying the severity. Even when it was apparent to the entire planet that this was a serious pandemic the right was pretending nothing was wrong. Then it was not really a problem because the first places it hit were large urban centers (aka Democratic-voting…

Outside of social media, iirc, there was footage of certain political figures such as then Gov. Cuomo publicly rejecting the vaccine deployment in his state, during Trump's administration. Since people relied on social media more often than cable TV, I suppose there were lots of amplified "lost in translation" moments.

A simple keyword search of "Trump vaccine" on reddit yields massive cognitive dissonance and a sociopath would conflate their bias from all the subreddits the keywords are found.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#363

Post by devwastaken »

chitowneats wrote: post #223
devwastaken wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of those people don't actually know they had COVID. They make up stories that "they've already had it". Remember that vaccinated still get COVID, those numbers include them.

What evidence do you have for your claim? An anecdote or two from your own life? How is that any more scientific than what you claim to be decrying? In the U.S. at least, there is a mass testing regime that many must submit to for work, school, etc. Are you suggesting those who have tested positive in these situations are "making up stories"?

Overwhelmingly people did not have to test for COVID, and never did. They had a few "symptoms" and claimed they got COVID and it "was no big deal". When in reality they have no proof of it. Humans overwhelmingly make up stories so reinforce their opinions. And no, most work did not require testing, even government work. Even federal government work.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#364

Post by peter422 »

newbamboo wrote: post #338
tzs wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you have a vaccine, then your risk of death is far below that of the flu (statistically). That seems worth checking. US flu deaths per year over the last 10 years ranged from 12000 to 61000, averaging 35900 [1]. That's 3.7 to 18.6 per 100k, averaging 10.9 per 100k. Weekly COVID deaths among vaccinated people is 0.1 per 100k [2]. The flu season is typically about 8 months. A weekly death rate of 0.1 per 100k over…

I get so frustrated by this stuff. Here’s where you went wrong. Your number is not based on efficacy last week. It’s cumulative! The vaccine efficacy wanes. For those who get a vaccine 8 months ago, it’s almost worthless now. The worst part of you logic, you lump all risk groups together! A 90 year old is not a 20 year old. Argh! People have been doing this, even public health people, since the beginning of the pande…

Vaccine efficacy against infection wanes, but not severe disease and death. This is likely due to the difference in speed in which the B cells (faster) and T cells (slower) wane from the vaccine.

Your claim is frustrating because it is inaccurate and misleading.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#365

Post by ufo »

adolph wrote: post #360
ufo wrote: post #307

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the first efficacy data is going to be about preventing infections. Data about preventing deaths will take longer to obtain.

Infections in a world where asymptotic spread is possible seems tough to measure. Are infections measured by symptoms such as cough, fever, etc, or by enough virus replication to shed or expel viral enough material to infect others?

Depends on the study design. Infections are detected by doing a PCR covid test. However, different studies might have different criteria for exactly who gets tested.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#366

Post by throwawayboise »

mrrv wrote: post #233
refurb wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Calling the unvaccinated idiots is about as effective as calling the obese, alcoholics, people who don’t take their medication, etc, idiots. Apparently we have sympathy for people who fail to make good health choices except for the unvaccinated. Not effective at all.

The unvaccinated are putting others at risk, including kids. I can't say the same about the obese or people who don't take their medication.

Obese people take up health care resources that could go to keeping kids healthier at lower cost or making those resources more available to kids in an emergency.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#367

Post by crackercrews »

rattlesnakedave wrote: post #213
thesis wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yikes. Idiots? All this condescension all the time. Maybe some people won’t get the vaccine because they already had Covid. Israeli study showed that people who had Covid are more protected than the vaccinated.

I’m not sure what else you would call someone with such a skewed risk assessment that they think taking a vaccine that has proven to be incredibly safe and effective, provided free of charge, isn’t worth their time. Research has not yet shown how long you are protected from getting COVID-19 again after you recover from COVID-19. We have a much better idea with the vaccines. Even more, studies suggest that unvaccinate…

> a vaccine that has proven to be incredibly safe and effective

I understand that there have been very few deaths or serious injuries from the vaccines. At the same time, I am aware of the unexplained menstrual side effects. I completely understand why women who plan to have children, and parents of girls, don't view the vaccine as zero risk.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#368

Post by kenjackson »

refurb wrote: post #298
RHSeeger wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> obese Requires lifestyle change > alcoholics Requires lifestyle change > people who don’t take their medication Requires lifestyle change > Vaccine Requires a choice and a half day off. There is a BIG difference there.

What you call lifestyle changes I call “need to make a decision”. Patients make terrible healthcare choices all the time. If we’re going to hammer them on vaccines let’s go all in, huh? Obesity causes massive costs and burden on our healthcare system yet I don’t see people calling them idiots.

Obesity is also way more complex than taking a shot. Its not as simple as "eat as much as your neighbor". Minor systemic differences in metabolism can have huge long-term weight implications.

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#369

Post by mythrwy »

samtheprogram wrote: post #336
CydeWeys wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is it to protect the unvaccinated? COVID is not going away, so IMO here we just want everyone in this population to get the disease as fast as possible to get it over with. No we definitely do not want that. There are large deaths of the country where vaccinated people are dying of unrelated conditions simply because hospitals are too full of dying unvaccinated COVID patients. The only way this works is if hospital…

Where are people dying because the hospitals are too full of unvaccinated patients dying of COVID-19?

On the twitter!

Re: Vaccine experts: Covid-19 booster shots aren't needed now

#370

Post by throwaway20371 »

alexktz wrote: post #345
newbamboo wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get so frustrated by this stuff. Here’s where you went wrong. Your number is not based on efficacy last week. It’s cumulative! The vaccine efficacy wanes. For those who get a vaccine 8 months ago, it’s almost worthless now. The worst part of you logic, you lump all risk groups together! A 90 year old is not a 20 year old. Argh! People have been doing this, even public health people, since the beginning of the pande…

> For those who get a vaccine 8 months ago, it’s almost worthless now. You need to back this claim up with data please.

Good point - another data point that is actually not one, but many. There are 13 different COVID-19 vaccines around the globe, which work in different ways.

"The overall age-adjusted vaccine effectiveness against infection for all New York adults declined from 91.7% to 79.8%." - https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e1.htm?s_cid=mm...

"Two doses of mRNA vaccines were 74.7% effective against infection among nursing home residents early in the vaccination program (March–May 2021). During June–July 2021, when B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant circulation predominated, effectiveness declined significantly to 53.1%." - https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e3.htm?s_cid=mm...

"The efficacy figure, which is based on an unspecified number of people between June 20 and July 17, is down from an earlier estimate of 64% two weeks ago and conflicts with data out of the U.K. that found the shot was 88% effective against symptomatic disease caused by the variant." - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-v...

"“As seen in real world data released from the Israel Ministry of Health, vaccine efficacy in preventing both infection and symptomatic disease has declined six months post-vaccination, although efficacy in preventing serious illnesses remains high,” the companies said in a written statement. “These findings are consistent with an ongoing analysis from the Companies’ Phase 3 study,” they said. “That is why we have said, and we continue to believe that it is likely, based on the totality of the data we have to date, that a third dose may be needed within 6 to 12 months after full vaccination.” ...... Executives from Pfizer and BioNtech have repeatedly said people will likely need a booster shot, or third dose, within 12 months of getting fully vaccinated because they expect vaccine-induced immunity to wane over time. They also said it’s likely people will need to get additional shots each year." - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/pfizer-says-it-is-developing...

So, while it's true that the effectiveness wanes, the same articles also point out that it is still effective at preventing severe hospitalization. If you're vaccinated, you're more likely after 6 months to get COVID anyway, but you are much less likely to be sent to the hospital or die.

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