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Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#431

Post by blagie »

hker wrote: post #379
JackeJR wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some think that if the US extended their protection to Taiwan, Beijing would not attempt to take Taiwan. Let's just assume for a moment that the US will fight off attacks by China to take Taiwan. And that US successfully ward off an attack. What next? What is there to prevent China from trying again and again and again? Will the US be prepared to ward off attacks after attacks after attacks? This is unlikely to happe…

> Some think that if the US extended their protection to Taiwan, Beijing would not attempt to take Taiwan. > What next? What is there to prevent China from trying again and again and again? > The only way the regime can be changed is from the inside. Worth noting that the Chinese Army “may not be willing to fight” (‘pay the bill’ for the aggressive stance of the Foreign Ministry). [1] If the Chinese Army did not scor…

I predict:

1) China won't attack Taiwan until it can be assured a swift victory.

2) China will reach that state within our lifetimes.

WWII was won, in part, by US manufacturing prowess. China has that advantage. It's military is currently behind in equipment, but if it chose to, it could build a blue water navy or whatever else it wants in record time. It also has the political ability to engage in major projects like these (see respective COVID19 responses).

I suspect Chinese military leadership is far more competent than US or EU. The cream of the crop in the West doesn't go into the military (see Afghanistan for an good example of how US armed forces are managed).

I also think we will see major disruptions in military from autonomous and semi-autonomous machines which will really reduce the US lead. DJI is headquartered in China, as are many of the other players here. If heave machines like carriers are obsoleted, the US advantage might turn into an expensive liability.

The Chinese military also has more manpower.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#432

Post by nl »

kenneth wrote: post #401
nl wrote: post #371

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't know what you mean. 9/11 resulted in two major wars and that was a non-state actor. As I said elsewhere: In the last few years the US has been run out of Iraq by Iran, Syria by Russia and Afghanistan by the Taliban. I don't see much appetite for going back to any of those. Or more starkly: The US lost both those wars and the US population is sick of it. If China sank a couple of US ships, I'm sure the US wo…

> As I said elsewhere: In the last few years the US has been run out of Iraq by Iran, Syria by Russia and Afghanistan by the Taliban. I don't see much appetite for going back to any of those. As was said elsewhere here, the Afghanistan war was won quickly. Afghanistan was also easily kept. And that's fighting against an opponent using guerilla tactics. What failed was nation-building. But that's not the goal with a c…

At what point was the Taliban defeated?

There was perhaps a short period before the Iraq war where they were close to defeat but from memory there was never a point they stopped fighting.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#434

Post by dTal »

blagie wrote: post #431
hker wrote: post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Some think that if the US extended their protection to Taiwan, Beijing would not attempt to take Taiwan. > What next? What is there to prevent China from trying again and again and again? > The only way the regime can be changed is from the inside. Worth noting that the Chinese Army “may not be willing to fight” (‘pay the bill’ for the aggressive stance of the Foreign Ministry). [1] If the Chinese Army did not scor…

I predict: 1) China won't attack Taiwan until it can be assured a swift victory. 2) China will reach that state within our lifetimes. WWII was won, in part, by US manufacturing prowess. China has that advantage. It's military is currently behind in equipment, but if it chose to, it could build a blue water navy or whatever else it wants in record time. It also has the political ability to engage in major projects lik…

Carriers are already obsolete in a superpower war. Both sides possess weapons that can destroy them utterly from a great distance, and their location cannot be kept secret. Carriers won't last a day.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#435

Post by Dah00n »

Haga wrote: post #383
justicezyx wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It wasn't part of China HK was sold to Britain as part of the corrupted and weak China's humiliation. What do you want to say? Are you trying to depict the image that HK has been forcefully claimed by China? Please stop this type of propaganda behavior. I don't like CCP, but that does not make HK not part of China. We Chinese eventually will get rid of CCP, but we don't want the great nation get split. Just like an…

This "great" nation was built on the corpse of several smaller nations a d ethnic groups. Theire reservations are a Disneyland of death by funny dances and deserve to be protected?

The same could be said of the US. I'd even go as far as saying it is historically worse in the US.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#436

Post by Dah00n »

tomrod wrote: post #174
neom wrote: post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only thing that will stop china from interfering in Taiwan is, universal consciousness willing, South Korea and Japan along with the other Asian nations having enough sway with China to keep them at bay. I very much prefer not to entertain WW3, but as others have said many times recently, if it is going to start, it may very well be over Taiwan.

The issue is, the CCP sees Taiwan as theirs when in reality China belongs to Taiwan. It would seem a treaty acknowledging Taiwan as an independent sovereign would be an ideal outcome, but it's weird to see nations express wounded pride, imo

That would be like saying the US belongs to the Native Indians, the Vikings or the British. It might be true, but what is the point exactly? Like it or not but Might Is Right and in less than 20 years Might equals PRC above all else (including the US, yes).

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#437

Post by Dah00n »

salawat wrote: post #320
nradov wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Possession counts for a lot more than theoretical legal legitimacy. Who is physically in control of the bulk of Chinese territory?

Might does not make right in questions of rule of law. Unless it's barbarism then. At that point I'm pretty sure the biggest functional nuclear stockpile wins though.

>Might does not make right in questions of rule of law

Sure it does. The laws are written by those who can enforce them. That is by definition those with Might. If that is barbarism then all of earth is under barbarism (and I'd argue that this is true).

History is full of good examples. The Nuremberg trials is a great example of Might Is Right. The exact same laws used against the Nazis never were enforced on US citizens.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#438

Post by Haga »

davesque wrote: post #378
kunagi7 wrote: post #9

The Chinese Government is speeding up their efforts to swallow Hong Kong and Macau into the Mainland. Closing the media outlets, museums, websites that speak against them. And a few key people get abducted here and there to scare more people and force them to accept the Beijing Regime. But... The people from Hong Kong still demonstrates and tries to fight for their lost rights.

Hong Kong seems really like a canary in a coal mine. Shouldn't it be easy for any of the world's democracies to speak out for such a small territory that is being threatened by a dictatorship? Apparently not in this sad era of decline. I swear I can feel it in the air. Principles are seeming more and more old fashioned. Money trumps all.

Wrong first is a knowledge (technology) gradient.

Then a economic rift.

A framework to explain the difference as natural.

Then comes the cruelty.

The next knowledge leap destroys the local maximum empire.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#439

Post by Dah00n »

analognoise wrote: post #71
president wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very sad and parallels what seems to be happening in the US and other western democracies as well. There is a trend of certain dominant power in all of these countries that is quashing all opposing voices. I predict that some major global events are going to happen within the next few years. EDIT: Case in point - the quashing of opposing voices occurs on this board on this very comment. You cannot even bring up this…

Whose voice is getting quashed in the US? Everyone has a Facebook, Twitter, email, phones, a magazine, protests, their own news channels, subReddits. What group doesn't have all those things? Whose voice is being quashed - exactly? Even straight up Nazis have websites, newsletters, gatherings, organized protest marches and Facebook pages. The fucking Taliban is on Twitter. So...who is being quashed because of their b…

Having a voice doesn't not equal being heard. Especially not if you define A Voice as writing on Facebook or Twitter. You might as well stand on a box in the dead parts of Detroit and talk politics. Being heard in a democratic country means your vote matters.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#440

Post by jpgvm »

iheartlife wrote: post #372
stingrae wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HK doesn't really have value to China other than making the case to its population that it never stands down or loses. Economically HK isn't that big of a deal compared to the rest of China at this point.

Thats an incredibly simplified take on it. HK might not represent a large part of the chinese economy but it still facilitates a large part of foreign investment into chinese companies. In CN there are largely three types of listings A shares, B shares and H shares. A & B are listed on SZ and SH exchange and are not freely traded like you know it from the west. H shares are listed on HK exchange and are freely traded…

It's also listed OTC in the US as the TCEHY ADR.
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