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Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#301

Post by sudosysgen »

anonymousiam wrote: post #234
nl wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I expect his argument is that the former national government of mainland China fled to Taiwan during the revolution. This is true, but it doesn't make a strong argument for legitimacy. Former governments flee countries frequently, and unless there is a rapidly implemented plan to try to get them back into power they are generally ignored. Taiwan is better viewed as a breakaway state than having any legitimate stake i…

One could even argue that the agreement Great Britain had for the 100 year lease of Hong Kong was with the Nationalist (Taiwan) government and not the PRC.

In any case, the treaty is broadly illegitimate as a colonial treaty nowadays.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#302

Post by jollybean »

xnyan wrote: post #255
jollybean wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They would not be able to stop it though. By the time it was announced, it would already be done. The only real option China would have would be 'force' and a frontal war with China is a really big deal. That said, US-provided nukes for Taiwan would be a major escelation and fingers would be pointed in the direction of the US for 'blame' etc.. A lot of people would throw a fit over that. It might be better to just pu…

Something that most westerners, particularly my fellow Americans, are unaware of is that the Soviets already had over 100 nuclear warheads in Cuba, many of them having fully functional delivery systems capable of striking the US. Even if we got them there, it’s not the end of the story For some reason the following simple truth is difficult for my countrymen to accept, but you have to know on some level that all of t…

'They will always win in the East'?

The didn't win in Korea, they didn't win in Japan.

They didn't even win in Vietnam, the US completely destroyed N. Vietnam military machine ... and then left.

By the time the US actually left Vietnam there was very little fighting and no casualties. The US could have stayed.

Similarly in Afghanistan ... there were very few soldiers there, with a different Foreign Policy there's no reason to believe the US could have chosen to 'stay'.

There are still major bases in Korea, Japan and Germany, no reason not to keep a base in Afghanistan if they thought they wanted to.

Nukes in Taiwan would really upset China (a lot!) and throw a big wrench into everything, but it's a very legit threat, it would make direct assault really hard.

Certainly one 'Omega Weapon' would be a short range, small yield nuke that Taiwan could use against an invading maritime force. Scary, but real power.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#303

Post by sudosysgen »

warning26 wrote: post #256
xnyan wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I could be wrong, but I don’t think you’re really giving it a good faith effort to look at this from the eyes of China. Imagine it in your head: the senior intelligence officer walks into the briefing room and says “The United States has placed their nuclear missiles in Taiwan, but don’t worry - that’s exactly the same as Russia having missiles, or India having done some nuclear tests and maybe having a shitty delive…

I agree that Taiwan wouldn't want to accept US nukes for the reason you state. However, what if they had domestically developed nukes instead? I feel like that would be a much more tenable position that would largely address your concern, and also grant Taiwan the ability to forestall any invasion indefinitely.

There is zero possibility for Taiwan to domestically develop nukes and the ways to deliver them reliably without the Chinese figuring it out and shutting it down with massive prejudice.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#304

Post by sudosysgen »

dustintrex wrote: post #188
refenestrator wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As of right now, there's no battlefield. China's official doctrine has been non-interference in other nations since Mao and they've mostly stuck to it with a few aberrations like a 30 day war in Vietnam. Xi has been pushing the limits internally and maybe one day that turns external but people here are talking about pre-emptive cold war. EDIT: diplomatic recognition is a purely symbolic move, and in this case the sym…

China's official doctrine is also that Taiwan is a part of China, and the status of Taiwan is purely an internal affair.

Agreed, but that's inconsistent with a claim that China is a threat for the world that justifies atrocities to stop.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#305

Post by tikwidd »

BurningFrog wrote: post #102
jmclnx wrote: post #5

I really wish the US and Europe would get *lls and punish China for breaking the treaty with Hong Kong and the UK

All we can do is open our borders for Hongkongers who want to leave. This is maybe the most highly educated and productive population in the world. Any country would be lucky to get them.

Another thing the US can do (and other countries that criticise China's human rights policies) is set a better example in international affairs. People in the US and US-aligned countries can organise opposition, for example to end the blockade of Cuba, take care of the disadvantaged, and end the illegal wars and terrorism. Meaningful action we can all take, utilising the freedoms and privileges we have to criticise the actions of our governments.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#306

Post by sudosysgen »

cabalamat wrote: post #110
warning26 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an interesting idea, but it would amount to calling China's bluff. China has stated that they would definitely commit to a ground invasion of Taiwan if the US recognized it. The question is -- how serious are they about that? Personally, I think they'd go for it. They've been itching to take over Taiwan by force anyway.

> Personally, I think they'd go for it. If there were sizable numbers of US troops on Taiwan, I don't think they'd attack. They don't want a major confrontation, at least not yet.

Absolutely not. US troops in Taiwan create a long term issue. It's objectively better for China to strike Taiwan before there are sizeable troops there than wait for those trooos to accumulate forever.

China would strike as soon as US troops officially settle in China in a military and not police/security/training/sales capacity.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#307

Post by sudosysgen »

busterarm wrote: post #58
onethought wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Punish them how? The global economy is heavy reliant on a cooperative China. UK have made it clear they aren’t part of the EU so why would the EU care? Just recall the context China are operating from: Hong Kong was stolen from them at the height of the opium wars. There is no fairness in these geopolitical dealings. Overall this sucks for HK… but it’s actually easy to understand all the parties involved actions/inac…

Not as reliant as you think. Chinese exports are rapidly becoming too expensive relative to their neighbors and they seem to be unable to further cheapen the price of their labor. Economically, China is actually in a real bind.

The solution is pretty simple, direct low value labour to the internal economy or phase it out, and trade increasingly in difficult products (or products that difficult at scale, of which there are more than you think) as far as foreign trade. It's a fairly proven strategy, it has good odds of working with an already strong internal market.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#308

Post by simonh »

sudosysgen wrote: post #295
dforrestwilson wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan would care a lot if China made a move on Taiwan. They recently strengthened defense ties there. Wouldn't just be the U.S. Oh, and two of the above mentioned countries have real blue water navies that can go anywhere to cut supply lines like say, oil from the Middle East. One does not.

There is absolutely nothing that Japan could do. Cutting oil from the ME would not be enough. China would ration oil and increase imports from Russia massively as well as reactivate domestic oil production, it would be great for the environment, China would carry on, and the US would make a lot of enemies.

If China invaded Taiwan, Europe would stand together with the US on any retaliation. It would be the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait all over again, geopolitically. China would be cut off dead from the global economy, no matter the cost. I don’t think it would be practical to liberate Taiwan, but China would be ruined.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#309

Post by vimy »

yodsanklai wrote: post #142
asdff wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Beijing ever martyrs the protestors like tianeman again I don't think the world will take kindly to that at all. I even think russia would join an american coalition. China has no strong allies that wouldn't prefer to spare themselves in the event of worldwide intervention and they can't fight off the entire developed world alone no matter how far they came in recent decades.

I really think nobody cares. Even if China were to military invade Taiwan tonight, I'm not sure there would be any form of retaliation from western countries.

Except China would control TSMC after an invasion. And since the whole world runs on chips this would be unacceptable to the West.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#310

Post by vimy »

billiam wrote: post #228

Heartbreaking. I can't even talk about Tiananmen with Chinese -born friends under 40 in the US or Europe. TikTok and WeChat has achieved their goals of driving historical memory from their brains. And if I even mention Taiwan within seconds I am hearing the term "renegade province." It seems for now possible to create a true virtual totalitarian state in the 21st century. It's chains are forged out of "Xi thought" ap…

I have a Chinese friend and she gets very emotional, hateful, when Taiwan is mentioned. She told me I can’t talk to her about “that island”.
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