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Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
261–270 of 538 posts
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#262Earlier quoted context omitted.
I could be wrong, but I don’t think you’re really giving it a good faith effort to look at this from the eyes of China. Imagine it in your head: the senior intelligence officer walks into the briefing room and says “The United States has placed their nuclear missiles in Taiwan, but don’t worry - that’s exactly the same as Russia having missiles, or India having done some nuclear tests and maybe having a shitty delive…
I agree that Taiwan wouldn't want to accept US nukes for the reason you state. However, what if they had domestically developed nukes instead? I feel like that would be a much more tenable position that would largely address your concern, and also grant Taiwan the ability to forestall any invasion indefinitely.
Taiwan is thoroughly infiltrated by PRC intelligence, facilities for nuclear programs would be glassed before TW could develop any capabilities.
PRC fought with US / USSR while both were nuclear powers and China was not over much less important core interests than TW. Like there's currently 10s and eventually 100s of vunerable mainland coastal nuclear power plants that TW missiles can strike right now. TW has a lot of ability to fuck up PRC if they want to. Scope of TW actions/resistence will determine proportionality of destruction by PRC. Though ultimately there is nothing TW can do to deter PRC who has fought harder opponents with less means and more sacrifice.
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#263Earlier quoted context omitted.
India, North Korea, Pakistan and Russia are all bordering nations to China with nuclear weapons. During the cold war and to this day, there are no bordering states or any one close to 3000 miles of US borders with nuclear weapons. So, your comparison to US/USSR cold war to China/Taiwan scenario is slightly misplaced I think.
I could be wrong, but I don’t think you’re really giving it a good faith effort to look at this from the eyes of China. Imagine it in your head: the senior intelligence officer walks into the briefing room and says “The United States has placed their nuclear missiles in Taiwan, but don’t worry - that’s exactly the same as Russia having missiles, or India having done some nuclear tests and maybe having a shitty delive…
As a counter, I could imagine this to be alarming if hypothetically US is openly interested in invading Mexico who is allied with China. China then decides to place nuclear arsenal near Mexico city to defend it. This would be far less alarming than China initiating placement of nukes in Mexico without any intention from US to invade Mexico.
The subtle difference is offense vs. defense. If China openly agrees with the world to never invade Taiwan, US placing nukes in Taiwan would be unacceptable. But that is not the reality here.
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#264Earlier quoted context omitted.
1) "Last fall, the latest war game was based on a Chinese biological-weapon attack that swept through US bases and warships in the Indo-Pacific region" These are superfluous conditions (i.e. predicting bioweapons), and of course, and you're not going to hear about the 'real' results. And of course it ignores the after effects. 2) Defenders have considerable advantage in that situation, especially with a water gap. Th…
2) A giant smokescreen? Creeping (missile) barrage of the beach? There are plenty of ways to make it hard to target anything on a beach. Air cover and missile defense will be a big deal. 3) You mean the civilian population will fight to the death? Absolutely no way that's true. Russia showed the way in Crimea: offer incentives to those who support the "liberation"; it both erodes defender support and gives the attack…
> I'd also wager that there'll be much less domestic support for sending hundreds of thousands of Americans to die over Taiwan than there was as a response to Pearl Harbor.
The US was interfering in Japan's affairs (particularly hampering access to oil) in the lead up to late 1941, even though support for either war was in the low 60%s prior to Pearl Harbor (amazingly as low as 7% when the Netherlands, Belgium, and France were invaded).[0] The US government, in some respects, forced the Japanese's hands in a stretched gamble by attacking it first. In a hypothetical confrontation, given the historical support US (among others) have shown Taiwan, even the existing interference alone could force China's hands to take some action that causes a drastic increase in domestic support.
In other words, my wager is that you're probably correct, but the probability of a forced action after some aggression has taken place, which subsequently causes an increase of domestic support would be more likely to occur.
[0] https://exhibitions.ushmm.org/americans-and-the-holocaust/us...
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#265Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The issue is, the CCP sees Taiwan as theirs when in reality China belongs to Taiwan. What on earth is this supposed to mean? I'm no fan of the Chinese government, but trying to claim it is illegitimate seems a pretty big stretch.
> I'm no fan of the Chinese government, but trying to claim it is illegitimate seems a pretty big stretch. That’s exactly what the Chinese government is doing though. Isn’t that a bit of a stretch too? China claims Taiwan just as Taiwan (more or less seriously, but I doubt with any will to ever try and recover it) claims China. Or more like they both claim to be the legitimate government of greater China.
Possession counts for a lot more than theoretical legal legitimacy. Who is physically in control of the bulk of Chinese territory?
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#266Earlier quoted context omitted.
The only thing that will stop china from interfering in Taiwan is, universal consciousness willing, South Korea and Japan along with the other Asian nations having enough sway with China to keep them at bay. I very much prefer not to entertain WW3, but as others have said many times recently, if it is going to start, it may very well be over Taiwan.
The issue is, the CCP sees Taiwan as theirs when in reality China belongs to Taiwan. It would seem a treaty acknowledging Taiwan as an independent sovereign would be an ideal outcome, but it's weird to see nations express wounded pride, imo
I wish that was the reality. But CCP has the military power.
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#267Earlier quoted context omitted.
The USA has been losing all war games where it defends Tawain against China. https://nypost.com/2021/03/11/us-war-games-over-china-threat... It is not okay to assume USA supremacy against adversaries anymore. Why Americans still do business with China is astounding to me.
The only thing that will stop china from interfering in Taiwan is, universal consciousness willing, South Korea and Japan along with the other Asian nations having enough sway with China to keep them at bay. I very much prefer not to entertain WW3, but as others have said many times recently, if it is going to start, it may very well be over Taiwan.
SK is waiting for China's push to unite with NK.
Japan surely want to help, but US daddy won't allow rearming herself.
Other Asian nations?
"Why should I care, where is my economy development"
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#268Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nowhere in the constitution are you protected from consequences when you say something stupid, and right-leaning folks have been saying this particular stupid thing a bit too often. Have the offices of Fox News or Breitbart or the Creation Science Museum been raided by police? No? Then this is not even close to parallel.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1282404647160942598.html
One side has to show tolerance, convince others and be kind. Instead, we are throwing people under the bus, enranging them further and permanently affecting their mental health - they'll never to ever listen to any progressive voice.
This is an absolute disaster. People forget that the point of debates and exercise in politics is to convince the other side and get their vote. May be I am crazy to think this way.
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#269The Chinese Government is speeding up their efforts to swallow Hong Kong and Macau into the Mainland. Closing the media outlets, museums, websites that speak against them. And a few key people get abducted here and there to scare more people and force them to accept the Beijing Regime. But... The people from Hong Kong still demonstrates and tries to fight for their lost rights.
Makes you wonder how much transpired over the past COVID News saturation that may of been buried, or missed completely by the media.
Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum
#270>>Critics say it is aimed at crushing dissent but China says it is meant to maintain stability.
Of course both are right.
This is a blatant crushing of dissent, wherein merely attempting to curate a few facts is now cast as a crime deserving a life sentence.
OTOH, the CCP requires stability to maintain its illegitimate[1], brutally dishonest, murderous, expansionist authoritarian 'govt'. This "stability" and requires that the population remain ignorant of the CCP's corruption, history, and current practices.
Western democracies were massively foolish to ever engage with CCP and treat it as if it were legitimate.
While we thought we were exploiting cheap Chinese labor, the CCP strategically exploited our myopic focus on quarterly profits. They now have won a massive transfer of strategic commercial & military intellectual property, strategic manufacturing know-how, and massive amounts of capital to strategically deploy to buy more global influence. This will go down as a blunder of historic proportions.
We see the signs every week, as here, yet nothing is done about it.
[1] While this govt may be recognized, it came to power over it's people at the point of a gun, and can only maintain that power without the free consent of it's people. Being a de-facto ruler does not make a ruler legitimate. By that reasoning, the Taliban should immediately be recognized as a legitimate govt.