Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum • Hacker News Board

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#251

Post by eloisius » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 12:41 AM UTC

jollybean wrote: post #208

xnyan wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Step back and just think about it in realpolitik terms. If you were the leader of china, what would you think about the idea of nuclear weapons being brought to your borders? In a similar situation (the US had nukes in turkey and other areas close to the USSR) the Soviet Union used the same rational (in part) to justify putting nukes in Cuba. Just leveling the playing field. The result was the closest we’ve ever gott…

They would not be able to stop it though. By the time it was announced, it would already be done. The only real option China would have would be 'force' and a frontal war with China is a really big deal. That said, US-provided nukes for Taiwan would be a major escelation and fingers would be pointed in the direction of the US for 'blame' etc.. A lot of people would throw a fit over that. It might be better to just pu…

>By the time it was announced, it would already be done.

There are almost no surprises on either side of the Straight. Spies from both sides have thoroughly penetrated the other.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#252

Post by ajsnigrutin » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 12:45 AM UTC

blibble wrote: post #215

onethought wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Punish them how? The global economy is heavy reliant on a cooperative China. UK have made it clear they aren’t part of the EU so why would the EU care? Just recall the context China are operating from: Hong Kong was stolen from them at the height of the opium wars. There is no fairness in these geopolitical dealings. Overall this sucks for HK… but it’s actually easy to understand all the parties involved actions/inac…

most of the EU doesn't care half of Cyprus (a member state) is still occupied

EU politics are fun...

- Kosovo wants to be independent, people decided so, so we must support a new country

- Bosnia has to stay together, no matter what the people want, we won't change maps again

- Catalonia? What, what, sorry, can't hear you, the connection is unstable.. [disconnect]

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#253

Post by yann2 » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 12:46 AM UTC

jollybean wrote: post #205

gogopuppygogo wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA has been losing all war games where it defends Tawain against China. https://nypost.com/2021/03/11/us-war-games-over-china-threat... It is not okay to assume USA supremacy against adversaries anymore. Why Americans still do business with China is astounding to me.

1) "Last fall, the latest war game was based on a Chinese biological-weapon attack that swept through US bases and warships in the Indo-Pacific region" These are superfluous conditions (i.e. predicting bioweapons), and of course, and you're not going to hear about the 'real' results. And of course it ignores the after effects. 2) Defenders have considerable advantage in that situation, especially with a water gap. Th…

Piece by piece sounds good. But after Xi and the rest of the old men who run the country kick the can, I find it hard to believe next gen Chinese leaders will care about Taiwan as much. Whats the upside to them for all this drama?

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#254

Post by phantomathkg » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 12:52 AM UTC

karaterobot wrote: post #23

jmclnx wrote: post #5

I really wish the US and Europe would get *lls and punish China for breaking the treaty with Hong Kong and the UK

Tariffs? We tried a trade war, and it had some economic effect, but no lasting political effect. We probably don't want to get involved in another land war in Asia, if we can avoid it. We could try asking them nicely, but beyond that I feel like it's up to the people of China to decide their own fate.

Ask them nicely?! Appeasement never work, did we forgot what we have learnt from WW2? The only way out is to start a cold/hot war until toppling the CCP.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#255

Post by xnyan » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 12:54 AM UTC

jollybean wrote: post #208

xnyan wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Step back and just think about it in realpolitik terms. If you were the leader of china, what would you think about the idea of nuclear weapons being brought to your borders? In a similar situation (the US had nukes in turkey and other areas close to the USSR) the Soviet Union used the same rational (in part) to justify putting nukes in Cuba. Just leveling the playing field. The result was the closest we’ve ever gott…

They would not be able to stop it though. By the time it was announced, it would already be done. The only real option China would have would be 'force' and a frontal war with China is a really big deal. That said, US-provided nukes for Taiwan would be a major escelation and fingers would be pointed in the direction of the US for 'blame' etc.. A lot of people would throw a fit over that. It might be better to just pu…

Something that most westerners, particularly my fellow Americans, are unaware of is that the Soviets already had over 100 nuclear warheads in Cuba, many of them having fully functional delivery systems capable of striking the US. Even if we got them there, it’s not the end of the story

For some reason the following simple truth is difficult for my countrymen to accept, but you have to know on some level that all of this matters more to China than it does to us, and unless we completly overmatch them in power (as we did in the past, and do not now) in the long term they will always win in the east.

We could not even keep Afghanistan before our commitment flagged - what makes you think we could outlast the efforts of the largest economy in the world to remove weapons of mass destruction from Taipei?

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#256

Post by warning26 » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 12:55 AM UTC

xnyan wrote: post #247

systemvoltage wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

India, North Korea, Pakistan and Russia are all bordering nations to China with nuclear weapons. During the cold war and to this day, there are no bordering states or any one close to 3000 miles of US borders with nuclear weapons. So, your comparison to US/USSR cold war to China/Taiwan scenario is slightly misplaced I think.

I could be wrong, but I don’t think you’re really giving it a good faith effort to look at this from the eyes of China. Imagine it in your head: the senior intelligence officer walks into the briefing room and says “The United States has placed their nuclear missiles in Taiwan, but don’t worry - that’s exactly the same as Russia having missiles, or India having done some nuclear tests and maybe having a shitty delive…

I agree that Taiwan wouldn't want to accept US nukes for the reason you state. However, what if they had domestically developed nukes instead?

I feel like that would be a much more tenable position that would largely address your concern, and also grant Taiwan the ability to forestall any invasion indefinitely.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#257

Post by dnqthao » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 12:57 AM UTC

neom wrote: post #165

gogopuppygogo wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA has been losing all war games where it defends Tawain against China. https://nypost.com/2021/03/11/us-war-games-over-china-threat... It is not okay to assume USA supremacy against adversaries anymore. Why Americans still do business with China is astounding to me.

The only thing that will stop china from interfering in Taiwan is, universal consciousness willing, South Korea and Japan along with the other Asian nations having enough sway with China to keep them at bay. I very much prefer not to entertain WW3, but as others have said many times recently, if it is going to start, it may very well be over Taiwan.

It will start with Vietnam instead.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#258

Post by imglorp » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 12:59 AM UTC

baby wrote: post #180

imglorp wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That would be an interesting tradeoff conversation if true. But they basically do deny the event by claiming only 300 dead and then villainizing the victims of an atrocity.

They are saying no death, where did you read 300?

Wikipedia claims: the official PRC position at the time was 300; many other estimates are in the thousands ranging up to 10,000. Of course now they are trying to erase it altogether.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Tiananmen_Square_protests...

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#259

Post by taf2 » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 1:01 AM UTC

nl wrote: post #194

tomrod wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why?

Well apart from over 70 years of mostly stable government (with Tiananmen square being the exception) they are broadly recognized by most countries and the UN and have been for close to 50 years. There's little evidence of support in China or even in Taiwan for the idea that the Taiwan government are the legitimate government of mainland China, and Taiwanese ambition is pretty much limited in practical terms to self…

Fair - perhaps because all opposing voices have been disappeared… it is after all one party.

Re: Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum

#260

Post by phantomathkg » Fri, Sep 10, 2021, 1:02 AM UTC

onethought wrote: post #15

jmclnx wrote: post #5

I really wish the US and Europe would get *lls and punish China for breaking the treaty with Hong Kong and the UK

Punish them how? The global economy is heavy reliant on a cooperative China. UK have made it clear they aren’t part of the EU so why would the EU care? Just recall the context China are operating from: Hong Kong was stolen from them at the height of the opium wars. There is no fairness in these geopolitical dealings. Overall this sucks for HK… but it’s actually easy to understand all the parties involved actions/inac…

Then first, remove the dependencies, there are places that you can start manufacturing stuff cheaper than China, and without the risk of Chinese stealing the IP.

It is not a UK/EU issue. At the end of the day CCP think itself as a rising power and will want to expand its power to anywhere on earth. The belt and road initiative is basically modern day colonisation, instead of taking over a whole country or city, Sri Lanka lost a port for 99 years. [1]

1: https://www.ft.com/content/e150ef0c-de37-11e7-a8a4-0a1e63a52...