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Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

511–520 of 686 posts

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#511

ARM did this to themselves. When you create a new entity in China, you agree that you don't control it. It is free to go off and do it's own thing. So when you create a nee entity in China, and give it a ETERNAL LICENSE to your CPU CORES you can't take that back if it "goes rogue". ARM created a monster and now they have to compete with it.

They still own 49% of it, so are still entitled to a share of the profits. And if they prevail in court (assuming that court action is initiated), they can regain control of the subsidiary as well.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#512
post #497
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China repeats Japan 1950-1980. Focus on incremental innovation, instead of big leaps. They started at the bottom rung of the quality chain. They are constantly climbing it up but the speed seems slow. Then suddenly they are in par or little ahead. Chinese are already within a spitting distance in most technologies. Semiconductors have some technology bottlenecks like EUV machines that are hard to replicate. Chinese f…

Interestingly, Japan also had very lax IP laws as it was catching up to the rest of the world, which basically enabled it to do what China has been doing, and only really shifted to strong IP protections as it started to develop its own tech and IP that it wanted to export.

Japan was famous for copying.

They send their businessmen into trips trough Europe and the US with cameras hanging in their necks taking pictures of the factories and taking notes. When their hosts waited orders from Japan, they build factories and started competing.

Industrial Revolution in the US started with stealing. Samuel Slater – "Father of the American Industrial Revolution" ("Slater the Traitor" in the UK) didn't invent anything. He just memorized and copied British cotton spinning mill designs, especially the water frame and moved to America.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#513

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, you contend that because the United States did something questionable 200 years ago, it's OK for China to do it in modern times. Got it.

China is playing the same game that the US used to try to get ahead of the UK. Seems like turn about being fair play. FWIW US lawmakers have the power to do something about this by creating trade blockades until equal market access is provided. Trump tried this & look how unpopular a trade war with China is. I don't think it was all just because Trump was doing it, although the US being schizophrenic about which side…

Now it's too late for a trade war with China. We already gave them all of the ammo over the past 60 years.

Our systems are going to collapse before long and China will be ready to take the reigns.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#514

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some of the most competitive products in some categories are from China, for example in drones. It's only a matter of time until they work their way up the chain. Remember the Tim Cook quote how it's difficult to fill a room with machinists in US, while in China you can fill 3 football fields with them.

What does the west do? Tech is the only real growth industry left in the US. Right now 80% of the county slaves away in dead end jobs to cater to the remaining 20% white collar professional+capital class. That 20% seems like its going to get smaller :/ Eventually something has got to give in this country. Soon nothing will be left but a hollow husk.

Could tech and manufacturing combine to become automated high-end tech?

Could robotics and aggressive automation of production lines make this shift? ...Or is it in fact more complex than it seems and the lead times for setting up these kinds of businesses too large to have a useful effect in the short/medium term?

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#515
post #5

This is the standard Chinese operating model, as I understand it. Accept foreign subsidiary investment on condition of 51% Chinese ownership, transfer the technology, then turn around and compete with the parent. It was a similar story with maglev trains.

Exactly. Why are companies and their governments still falling for it?

Contrast with how Chinese companies operate in the west, essentially imposing a system of apartheid between Chinese bosses and western workers.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#516

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In Japan seals/stamps (hanko) are still widely used as signatures.

Ditto Korea. Something that shocked me is that it is common in medium-sized sole proprietorships (tech startups, small businesses, research labs) for the CEO to give their personal seal to the accountants/secretaries. It the West the equivalent would be giving away an autopen for your signature.

I wonder if they were giving their full official seal? I suppose if you're signing a ton of documents, handing that over might be needed. It would be interesting if there were a system to register certain seals with only some permissions (for example, manage business but not personal assets with a green seal). You could create a document stamped with your most important seal that indicates which seal is permissible for which purpose.

In Japan, the official "hanko" seal with red ink carries the force of a signature, but other seals do not carry as much or any legal weight.

https://www.nippon.com/en/features/jg00077/

That article talks a little bit about a similar system to the one I mentioned, where one seal is used for banking, one for title transactions, etc. Something like that but more customizable could be pretty useful.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#517

This article is entirely misinformed. Arm China already makes all these products, and has for years. This is a rebrand of existing products.

Rebranding in the original, cattle-branding, ownership indicating sense. China simply stole an entire business division.

> China simply stole an entire business division.

One guy in China (with dual US citizenship) went rogue and refused to step down as CEO of a joint venture after board members representing most of the shareholders (including Chinese shareholders) voted to remove him.

He could only do that based on a legal technicality and the shareholders can still oust him via court action.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ray Dalio is actually part of the minority of the Western FIRE sector that is not "fucked", precisely because Bridgewater has a strong position in China. This is what "fucked" looks like: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=GoIg

Can you interpret this graph for those of us who don't understand the point? Serious question.

It implies that there is a relationship between the fed balance sheet and performance of the s&p500, suggesting that a large part of the economic growth in America since the 08 economic crisis has been because of things like quantitative easing and not actual growth.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#519
post #5

This is the standard Chinese operating model, as I understand it. Accept foreign subsidiary investment on condition of 51% Chinese ownership, transfer the technology, then turn around and compete with the parent. It was a similar story with maglev trains.

Standard US operating too:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_Slater

" In the UK, he was called "Slater the Traitor"[2] and "Sam the Slate" because he brought British textile technology to the United States, modifying it for American use. He stole the textile factory machinery designs as an apprentice to a pioneer in the British industry before migrating to the United States at the age of 21. He designed the first textile mills in the US and later went into business for himself, developing a family business with his sons. He eventually owned thirteen spinning mills and had developed tenant farms and company towns around his textile mills, such as Slatersville, Rhode Island."

Historically, strong international IP protection only becomes extra important once you are an a big established incumbent rather than a developing upstart country.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taiwan is not China.

Taiwan is China. West Taiwan just needs to get with the program.

Taiwan is indeed the Republic of China, but generally when people refer to “China” without qualification they are referring to the People’s Republic of China.
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