Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

361–370 of 686 posts

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#361

Post by treis »

tomp wrote: post #261
colordrops wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Things will get really ugly once you codify special classes citizens and other US persons. It won't happen even though conservative congresspeople have been pushing for it for decades.

Are you sure about that? It's the norm in Europe. E.g. you can't work for UK security services (MI5, MI6) unless one of your parents was also British, you lived in the UK for a while and you might be required to give up dual citizenship.

Constitutional amendment that the government can't deny citizens "privileges" and that they get equal protection under the law. There's a whole mess of court cases around that and it can get complicated. But it's going to be tough to get something like you suggest past the courts.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#362

Post by angelzen »

cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

> US government will at some point soon decide that any person born in mainland China is a security risk

Chinese people earn 15-20% of graduate STEM degrees in US, double the percentage of 10 years ago, and not counting second generation Chinese. At this rate, 'US' STEM will be Chinese dominated long before anyone wakes up to the security risk.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11347

https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/estimating-the-numbe...

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#363

Post by SkyMarshal »

hker wrote: post #294
SkyMarshal wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One of the problems is that Chinese Americans may still have family ties in China, and the CCP's United Front [1] or other orgs will use those ties to extort, blackmail, or otherwise pressure them. It's absolutely imperative that the US Govt, and the govts of all democracies, recognize and combat this, and take active measures to protect their Chinese citizens. One thing that needs to happen if it's not the case alre…

> It's absolutely imperative that the US Govt, and the govts of all democracies, recognize and combat this, and take active measures to protect their Chinese citizens. Agree. > Democratic governments should probably also look into providing an expedited immigration path for their Chinese citizens' relatives still in China. Just want to point out that, Chinese spies tried to exploit expedited immigration paths in UK i…

>Just want to point out that, Chinese spies tried to exploit expedited immigration paths in UK intended for Hong Kongers [1]. I don’t have an easy solution.

Yup, though I'd rather get the innocents out first and deal with any spies later.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#364

Post by angelzen »

exporectomy wrote: post #326
cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

I suspect China doesn't really need western markets in the long term so denying access isn't all that powerful. Their population is the same as the entire OECD combined. They could become an entire "western developed economy" isolated within themselves plus a bunch of 3rd world allies.

Sorry to say, but this is typical Western 'markets above all' blinders. Very true, long term China doesn't need Western markets. But China needs World's resources, and Western markets will crash when starved for resources. The future is one Eastern developed economy, and various backwater client states in constant state of quarrel with each other while being striped bare for resources. There is a lot of corn grown in Iowa, I hear there is a big market for it overseas.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#365

Post by nyolfen »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #201
yodsanklai wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Naive question here: why China is able to close its market to foreign companies? Same thing for trade sanctions on Iran which impacted European companies but not China (if I'm not wrong). Seems they don't play by the same rules as anybody else.

> why China is able to close its market to foreign companies? Because we assumed that prosperity would lead to liberal democracy. That underwrote complacency while profit motivations took root.

> Because we assumed that prosperity would lead to liberal democracy. That underwrote complacency while profit motivations took root.

this might be a formal narrative, but the simple truth is that we did it because it made powerful people rich and entrenched specific factions in both parties

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#366

Post by ravel-bar-foo »

Animats wrote: post #177
cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

Chinese companies are extensions of the state. Some are, some aren't. The current China "antitrust" flap is over ones that got really big without being extensions of the state, such as Tencent and Ant Financial. The classic big ones, such as Baowu (steel), Cosco (shipping), and China Railway Group (obvious), are directly state-owned. There are also large companies owned by provinces, regions, and cities. Most small a…

At a minimum, the CCP has full visibility into every company operating in China. They require taxes to be filed via government-provided software, and this software was found to contain backdoors.

It gets even more insidious when every company above a certain size (10? 15?) is required to hire a Party Officer for oversight.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#367

Post by lazide »

treis wrote: post #361
tomp wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure about that? It's the norm in Europe. E.g. you can't work for UK security services (MI5, MI6) unless one of your parents was also British, you lived in the UK for a while and you might be required to give up dual citizenship.

Constitutional amendment that the government can't deny citizens "privileges" and that they get equal protection under the law. There's a whole mess of court cases around that and it can get complicated. But it's going to be tough to get something like you suggest past the courts.

Those don’t meaningfully apply for security clearances where an argument can be made that it exposes someone to the possibility of blackmail, etc. (such as extended family in the mainland being held hostage, which has happened)

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#369

Post by SkyMarshal »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #263
SkyMarshal wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or that capitalism was an inextricable part of democracy, and bringing the former would inevitably lead to the latter. A quite foolish assumption given the 20th century counterexamples of capitalism + authoritarianism - Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, Imperial Japan. In the 90s, Wall St. and corporate America bankrolled the largest ever lobbying campaign to open US markets and the WTO to China, and got it by 2000. Just…

> that capitalism was an inextricable part of democracy, and bringing the former would inevitably lead to the latter This was never argued by anyone of prominence in the debates on China's WTO accession. Raising living standards through trade was the pitch. The faulty assumption was wealthier Chinese would demand more freedom. That didn't happen.

The implication at the time - the "End of History" era - was that free trade capitalism had prevailed and was the way to raise living standards, and that political liberalization would follow. However you slice it, it was a poor assumption.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#370

Post by GDC7 »

SkyMarshal wrote: post #257
908B64B197 wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Here's where I think this will first come to a head: I believe the US government will at some point soon decide that any person born in mainland China is a security risk as far as working on anything national security related. This will probably extend to key industries of national importance too (eg SpaceX). Even naturalization or birth in America can't erase ties to Chinese entities, through family links for inst…

One of the problems is that Chinese Americans may still have family ties in China, and the CCP's United Front [1] or other orgs will use those ties to extort, blackmail, or otherwise pressure them. It's absolutely imperative that the US Govt, and the govts of all democracies, recognize and combat this, and take active measures to protect their Chinese citizens. One thing that needs to happen if it's not the case alre…

> Right-wingers may complain about this, but they have to understand that: 1) historically, subjects/victims of oppressive govts are more likely to be allies of US and other democracies, rather than enemies, and 2) innocent till proven guilty must apply universally.

You are dreaming. In reality what will happen is that the US will realize that there is no shame in being 2nd place.

American exceptionalism is somthing created by the media, in reality phenomenons such as the shifting of the global powers have been happening since forever and are so enormous that they are like the tectonic plates. They can't be stopped or messed with.

It's not a tragedy either, Europe was #1, then it dropped 2nd place and people there aren't exactly running around like chickens with their head cut off.

It's only an issue here on HN and reddit where people love to deeply analyze scenarios that they don't have any real saying on.

The rest of people just live their lives concerned with other and more pressing matters.

Post reply on HN