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Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

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Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#321

Post by maccolgan »

cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

This isn't very dissimilar to how the US populace at large won't let Chinese companies win in the US either, so all is fair in the world.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#322

Post by secondcoming »

SkyMarshal wrote: post #257
908B64B197 wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Here's where I think this will first come to a head: I believe the US government will at some point soon decide that any person born in mainland China is a security risk as far as working on anything national security related. This will probably extend to key industries of national importance too (eg SpaceX). Even naturalization or birth in America can't erase ties to Chinese entities, through family links for inst…

One of the problems is that Chinese Americans may still have family ties in China, and the CCP's United Front [1] or other orgs will use those ties to extort, blackmail, or otherwise pressure them. It's absolutely imperative that the US Govt, and the govts of all democracies, recognize and combat this, and take active measures to protect their Chinese citizens. One thing that needs to happen if it's not the case alre…

> It's absolutely imperative that the US Govt, and the govts of all democracies, recognize and combat this, and take active measures to protect their Chinese citizens.

Yes, but they can't protect the Chinese-mainland-living extended families of those citizens

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#323

Post by amacbride »

a9h74j wrote: post #119
klelatti wrote: post #4

If the current course continues this seems likely to lead to a bifurcation of the Arm ecosystem - presumably with Arm customers outside of China competing with incompatible products exported from China based on Arm China designs. I don't have any insight into the quality of the Arm China team but isn't one possible outcome that there is strong competition between the two ecosystems. So we could be in an Arms race (so…

Alternate title: When one arm doesn't know what the other arm is doing.

Or, "Arm Wrestling"

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#324

Post by notabanker »

yodsanklai wrote: post #193
cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

Naive question here: why China is able to close its market to foreign companies? Same thing for trade sanctions on Iran which impacted European companies but not China (if I'm not wrong). Seems they don't play by the same rules as anybody else.

What's different in China's case compared to other protectionist countries is they can get away with being protectionist.

How can they get away with it? They have powerful people lobbying with foreign governments on China's behalf. Take Apple for example: they contract out iPhone manufacturing to Foxconn in China. Due to the low cost of manufacturing they are able to generate astronomical profits.

Every measure against China will directly or indirectly impact some US multinational corporation and it's natural for the corporation to lobby Western governments to put the brakes on such measures.

On the contrary, if you look at Iran or Russia, multinational corporations don't have a similar deep-seated interest or supply chain infrastructure as they do in China. How did this come to be? A lot of it can be attributed to Deng Xiaoping's setting the tone for China's relationship with the West: “stabilize the position, observe calmly, take all in stride, never take the lead, and hide our capacity to bide our time.”

More on that in this essay: https://www.hoover.org/research/china-us-relations-eyes-chin...

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#325

Post by jlduan »

baq wrote: post #165
jlduan wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't throw out accusations like that without evidence, what deep CCP contacts Allen Wu has? Elon Musk has a factory in Shanghai, is he "loyal to China with deep CCP contacts" too?

This is China, deep contacts with the CCP are expected. You can be sure that neither Musk nor Tesla has full control of the factory.

i agree. the problem i have with the author's comment is "loyal". I think we need to distinguish people from justing trying to make money (apple, microsoft, tesla) and being CCP agents.

The author clearly suggests this American CEO is a "loyal CCP" agent. I am just curious how did she/he spot him?

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#326

Post by exporectomy »

cletus wrote: post #91

People need to wake up to the fact that China being a potential market of >1B people is an illusion. This is particularly relevant for any tech company. Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. They are tools of Chinese foreign and trade policy. What cooperation you think US companies provide the US government, it is nothing in comparison. The Chinese government will ensure that no Western…

I suspect China doesn't really need western markets in the long term so denying access isn't all that powerful. Their population is the same as the entire OECD combined. They could become an entire "western developed economy" isolated within themselves plus a bunch of 3rd world allies.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#327

Post by kbenson »

LamaOfRuin wrote: post #273
kbenson wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Let me spell it out: Chinese companies are extensions of the state. Where this comes to a head, and where western capitalistic governments seem ill equipped to handle it sufficiently, is in how China itself can and does act like one giant super conglomerate company and uses that to bully smaller companies because they are bigger than anything around. Western governments are loathe to intervene in business dealing w…

>What's a country like the US or UK to do? Tell it's local companies that want to and are totally willing to shift IP to China to access the market "No, sorry, you aren't allowed to, even though you own that information and it's not a state secret"? Yes, that is literally what the US has always done. The government can ban you from exporting anything it wants, which explicitly includes tech transfer.

China isn't just taking tech IP. They're taking everything. They localized and took a bunch of train IP from German company they partnered with in the past. They've been doing it for decades.

You can say we do that all the time, but have we really been prohibiting experienc and technology for diesel engines?

Like you say, maybe we should, but it will be an interesting argument to have with companies that really want access to the market, and view this specific aspect of the contract as none of the governments business.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#328

Post by TomAbel »

SkyMarshal wrote: post #248
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why China is able to close its market to foreign companies? Because we assumed that prosperity would lead to liberal democracy. That underwrote complacency while profit motivations took root.

Or that capitalism was an inextricable part of democracy, and bringing the former would inevitably lead to the latter. A quite foolish assumption given the 20th century counterexamples of capitalism + authoritarianism - Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, Imperial Japan. In the 90s, Wall St. and corporate America bankrolled the largest ever lobbying campaign to open US markets and the WTO to China, and got it by 2000. Just…

Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, Imperial Japan practiced corporatism[1] rather than capitalism

[1]https://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/watkins/corporatism.htm

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#329

Post by pstuart »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #201
yodsanklai wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Naive question here: why China is able to close its market to foreign companies? Same thing for trade sanctions on Iran which impacted European companies but not China (if I'm not wrong). Seems they don't play by the same rules as anybody else.

> why China is able to close its market to foreign companies? Because we assumed that prosperity would lead to liberal democracy. That underwrote complacency while profit motivations took root.

But was that the driver or was it cheap labor for immediate quarterly profits?
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