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Arm China Has Gone Rogue

semianalysis.substack.com

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Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#111

Post by random314 »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #100
landryraccoon wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Highly centralized (command & control) and mercantilist systems tend to do well in the short term, but struggle and founder in the long term. That sounds like a prayer to me. What evidence is there that China can't win? How are you certain that authoritarian regimes can't both gain and keep dominance over timescale of decades or centuries? Consider that the dominance of democracy is a relatively short term thing on…

We've been down this road with the Soviet Union during portions of the cold war, when folks in the West thought that high Soviet GDP catch-up growth would translate into sustained non-catch-up growth and meant non-authoritarian governments were doomed. It didn't work out that way. Democracy isn't assured, we could easily vote it away in the West. But there is definitely a pattern whereby enormous cutting-edge economi…

Soviet Russia had a much smaller population and market size than China.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#113

Post by [deleted] »

denverkarma wrote: post #64

So when is the western world going to wake up and realize that China is a cutthroat competitor that does not respect western law or traditions, cannot be trusted, and intends to dominate the world? This seems especially troubling for the tech world as IP is easily copied and the only thing that really protects it is the legal system, which China has shown over and over they don't care about.

[deleted]

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#114

Post by jhgb »

croes wrote: post #69
bigphishy wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I'm aware, the biggest innovation out of China in the past 300 years has been the face-kini. Seriously though, has this country produced any new invention? I would expect a country with 1.5 billion would come up with something novel. I can think of nothing unique, only modification of existing inventions.

Have you an example of a western invention not based on existing technology?

Depends on what you mean by "existing technology". Do electronic devices using quantum effects in solid state materials count? There you have the whole semiconductor industry. What about exploiting the behavior of charge carriers in vacuum? There you have the whole vacuum tube industry. Etc. etc. Before these things existed, nothing even remotely similar was being utilized by human civilization in our technological ventures at the very least in these two cases (or at least nothing did that readily comes to my mind, but considering the physics involved, it seems unlikely).

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#115

Post by FullyFunctional »

xmly wrote: post #102

I wish the author can learn some Chinese before writing this article. And the related Chinese news was already there last year. The thing is the pure ARM internal political conflicts. ARM China CEO WU, a US citizen, claimed that he reported few high-level managers' corruptions and then he got fired by the ARM Softbank. ARM Softbank united with all board directors, including all Chinese investors, to fire Wu. But when…

That represents an interesting twist in the story, but I don't seeing it affecting the conclusion - ARM has lost all control over their subsidiary (at least until the China judicial powers intervene). This couldn't have happened in a western country.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#116

Post by jlduan »

barrkel wrote: post #5

This is the standard Chinese operating model, as I understand it. Accept foreign subsidiary investment on condition of 51% Chinese ownership, transfer the technology, then turn around and compete with the parent. It was a similar story with maglev trains.

the rogue ceo allen wu is american.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#117

Post by angio »

hintymad wrote: post #110
denverkarma wrote: post #64

So when is the western world going to wake up and realize that China is a cutthroat competitor that does not respect western law or traditions, cannot be trusted, and intends to dominate the world? This seems especially troubling for the tech world as IP is easily copied and the only thing that really protects it is the legal system, which China has shown over and over they don't care about.

I have an honest question: why could China catch up to the western countries in many verticals and even become the dominant player, while in history the western could stay lightyears ahead of developing countries, no matter how hard the developing countries tried, with or without government interference or industrial espionage? What's changed?

We have an example most readers here are familiar with: the US ignored European (mostly British) intellectual property when they were developing and now they produce more innovation than any European country. Germany, Switzerland, and Italy also ignored patents for a while and now they are power houses when it comes to pharmaceuticals and chemicals.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#118

Post by phendrenad2 »

ARM did this to themselves. When you create a new entity in China, you agree that you don't control it. It is free to go off and do it's own thing. So when you create a nee entity in China, and give it a ETERNAL LICENSE to your CPU CORES you can't take that back if it "goes rogue". ARM created a monster and now they have to compete with it.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#119

Post by a9h74j »

klelatti wrote: post #4

If the current course continues this seems likely to lead to a bifurcation of the Arm ecosystem - presumably with Arm customers outside of China competing with incompatible products exported from China based on Arm China designs. I don't have any insight into the quality of the Arm China team but isn't one possible outcome that there is strong competition between the two ecosystems. So we could be in an Arms race (so…

Alternate title: When one arm doesn't know what the other arm is doing.

Re: Arm China Has Gone Rogue

#120

Post by vkou »

hintymad wrote: post #110
denverkarma wrote: post #64

So when is the western world going to wake up and realize that China is a cutthroat competitor that does not respect western law or traditions, cannot be trusted, and intends to dominate the world? This seems especially troubling for the tech world as IP is easily copied and the only thing that really protects it is the legal system, which China has shown over and over they don't care about.

I have an honest question: why could China catch up to the western countries in many verticals and even become the dominant player, while in history the western could stay lightyears ahead of developing countries, no matter how hard the developing countries tried, with or without government interference or industrial espionage? What's changed?

> What's changed?

Colonialism ended.

The west was not light years ahead of, say, India, when it was first colonized.

In the process of colonizing it, India's industrialization was stopped.

Countries didn't somehow fall into 'developed' and 'undeveloped' buckets by divine fiat. The latter tended to be invaded by the former, with the occupiers focusing more on wealth extraction, than development.

Once that parasitic relationship has been broken, a large number of developing countries have started moving towards prosperity. Some slower than others, to be sure.

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