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The mutation that helps Delta spread

nature.com

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Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#551

Post by Aeolun »

logicchains wrote: post #521
belltaco wrote: post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Let me approach it from another angle. Pre-vaccine, it appears that Covid roughly doubled everyone's all-cause mortality.[1] Like it killed 30 year olds at a much lower rate than 90 year olds, but 30 year olds have a much lower baseline mortality to begin with. This isn't an exact relationship, but approximately about double mortality across the board. (Even interestingly enough men's excess Covid death rate is abou…

>Covid would have way higher stats if it was allowed to spread unrestricted. This is scientifically false; there's no correlation between lockdown severity and covid fatality rates. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5... : " Lastly, government actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of COVID-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in t…

Uh, from your own article:

> The government policy of full lockdowns (vs. partial or curfews only) was strongly associated with recovery rates (RR=2.47; 95%CI: 1.08–5.64). Similarly, the number of days to any border closure was associated with the number of cases per million (RR=1.04; 95%CI: 1.01–1.08). This suggests that full lockdowns and early border closures may lessen the peak of transmission, and thus prevent health system overcapacity, which would facilitate increased recovery rates.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#552

Post by polote »

zpeti wrote: post #543
Jeema101 wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope I am mistaken here, but... are you saying that it would need to kill 1/6th of the population every year (instead of 1/600) before you will consider putting a piece of cloth over your face? What's so terrible about wearing a mask?

Can all the people advocating for an IMO completely dystopic society where everywhere our faces are covered, point me to some peer reviewed, legit studies about masks actually working? Especially cloth masks that 80% of people use? The only legit study ive seen is the danish one that shows masks basically do nothing to stop the spread of aerosol transmission, which COVID is.

You won't find any. Masks reduces the spread by the person who has covid, and it only reduces the spread if he wears it at all time, which is going to be the case in a study but is never going to be the case in reality.

Covid doesn't seem to be only aerosol BTW.

The only things that works at an individual level to reduce the risk to catch covid is to talk to less people. Which again is easy to do if it is chosen by the person but not going to happen if this is compulsory.

Mask works in theory but don't works when compulsory, social distancing works in theory but don't work when compulsory. Thus the probability that a legit study prove that mask mandate works exists is 0.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#553

Post by yobbo »

Aeolun wrote: post #547
zpeti wrote: post #543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can all the people advocating for an IMO completely dystopic society where everywhere our faces are covered, point me to some peer reviewed, legit studies about masks actually working? Especially cloth masks that 80% of people use? The only legit study ive seen is the danish one that shows masks basically do nothing to stop the spread of aerosol transmission, which COVID is.

Well, that took me much less time than I actually expected. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-72798-7 It does note that non-medical (e.g. cloth) masks may be less effective, but whether those are used a lot seems to depend on environment (nobody seems to use them here). Edit: One more for cloth masks https://www.nature.com/articles/jes201642

These studies do not support any claims regarding how covid spreads.

I suspect the main reason covid spread doesn't correlate with mask wearing is due to the size of the particles/aerosols, so few are wearing filtering masks (what you would wear in a painting booth), and so few masks are sealed around the face. And then mask discipline.

What I have observed is that masks are used a social queue; people wear them outside in public to signal "don't talk to me", and remove them in private when with friends. This behaviour is opposite of what would be effective, given that the right sort of masks are used, which is almost never the case.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#554

Post by Aeolun »

zpeti wrote: post #550
Aeolun wrote: post #547

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, that took me much less time than I actually expected. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-72798-7 It does note that non-medical (e.g. cloth) masks may be less effective, but whether those are used a lot seems to depend on environment (nobody seems to use them here). Edit: One more for cloth masks https://www.nature.com/articles/jes201642

I’m sceptical. This study measures aerosols going into a funnel centimeters away. It is also done with 10 people. This is a highly artificial situation. They even admit that they didn’t measure aerosol escapes at the top and side of masks. What happens when you spend 15 minutes in a small room with a COVID infected person with a mask? When all side escaped aerosols spread in the room? Or in a shopping center with 10…

I agree with you, and think it’s kind of obvious, which is why nobody is testing for that I think.

If you spend long enough in a small room, even with someone wearing a mask the mask is not going to do much to prevent transmission.

I think that’s why the first rule of COVID is to not stay together in small rooms.

The important part is if you’ll be instantly infected by someone talking with you over the counter for a minute, and for that scenario masks are (apparently) pretty great.

The only way would be to wear N95+ masks yourself.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#555

Post by vanviegen »

zapataband1 wrote: post #504
dcolkitt wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s a question of preferences that too often gets buried in this debate. If Covid becomes endemic at around its current severity, what level of pandemic restrictions are you willing to accept forever? For me personally, Covid would have to be at least 100 times worse before I’d support masking forever. But I get the sense that some people barely see any downside to it. I think these cross-views drive so much if t…

We're in the middle of a novel pandemic and children are apparently filling up ICUs, I could care less about what people on hackernews's 'preferences' on masks are. Let's be grown up and listen to the Doctors.

> children are apparently filling up ICUs

They are??

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#556

Post by SergeAx »

systemvoltage wrote: post #527
ivanhoe wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> will we all have to wear masks at work until we retire It's really funny to watch all the push back against masks considering how many uncomfortable things people put on themselves every single day, and usually just because someone told them it's cool thing to do. High heels, bras, neckties, etc. and not to forget things that we do to our bodies like implants and piercings and tattoos - most of that is way less use…

I am surprised you didn't discuss how masks affect the most fundamental aspect of social interaction - loss of facial expressions. Our faces are so pivotal to social interaction, it is impossible to overstate.

With work from home you don't need a facial expression at all. Just close your Jira tickets quick enough, and surveillance software will ensure you are not doing anything funny in your working hours.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#557

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

marton78 wrote: post #546
comeondude wrote: post #497

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn’t focus on the present reality. If the pandemic becomes endemic then it’s definitely worthwhile to have that dialogue. However our house is on fire right now in front of us. I feel like it’s important to be curious about working together to find a solution together RIGHT NOW - instead of worrying about far off scenarios.

I don't think that's the case. It's about time to say goodbye to the illusion that we're ever going to extinguish this fire. It's seems to me the COVID is about to be become endemic, this is the new normal. It's not a far off scenario any more, so it does make sense to have this discussion, right now.

> It's about time to say goodbye to the illusion that we're ever going to extinguish this fire.

That's a mischaracterisation of the above. Endemic at low levels is not the same as raging pandemic. Yes, the raging fire does actually have to be damped down to low levels before we can adjust and implement next steps after that.

But measures that are necessary during a pandemic are not the same as those necessary when a disease is endemic.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#558

Post by SailingSperm »

maxerickson wrote: post #441
criticaltinker wrote: post #435

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you read beyond the title you'll find that [3] outlines the conditions for vaccine escape and gives many broad examples of antibiotic and antiviral resistance. [1][2] also discuss vaccine escape in detail, but you won't find that out from the title.

Antibiotic resistance is pretty different than vaccine escape. I wouldn't say [1] goes into any particular detail. Nor does [2]. It says it can happen.

The evolutionary process is the same...

1) A population of virus or biotics has genetic diversity and mutations through generations when reproducing.

2) Some pressure is put on its survival (antibiotics, vaccines).

3) Those in the population that survive better (with the new pressure introduced) proliferate more than those in the population that didn't survive or thrive as much.

4) You end up with a population more resistant or immune to the chosen selective pressure initially used on it.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#559

Post by Florin_Andrei »

betwixthewires wrote: post #444
Florin_Andrei wrote: post #358

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there are billions of dollars of economic incentives for suppression of early treatment, because vaccines are still under EUA that could be questioned by the availability of therapeutics with decades of safety data Conspiracy theory. Rather old and naive, I should add. Zero Hedge is a cesspool of pseudo-science when it comes to COVID. The best data source can be twisted into complete nonsense when folks have politi…

What you're doing is called a character attack. I agree with you about zero hedge, but that doesn't change what you're doing. A character attack is usually used when one doesn't have a counterpoint against the point being countered. "There are financial incentives to sell vaccines" might be a conspiracy theory, but anyone not considering this reality a factor is delusional. I don't think they're selling us snake oil…

If you don't make it clear that bullshit is bullshit, if you pretend like it belongs to the realm of sanity, then the debate becomes a farce - some kind of Monty Python absurd comedy.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#560

Post by qiqitori »

jader201 wrote: post #464
dboreham wrote: post #395

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With some work it's possible to find and fit masks that don't fog glasses. Fwiw in order to work effectively as an "outbound" filter , the mask must not duct exhaled air around it's seal with the face. So fogging means it isn't working.

Then most masks, by your logic (and not necessarily arguing your logic) aren’t working. The only way to completely seal off your mouth and nose is to wear a more fitted mask. The masks most (probably 99%+) people are wearing are ducting air on either side of the nose. And yes, most masks have the metal piece to help with this, but it doesn’t work. No matter how I adjust the metal piece, air makes its way out. So if w…

A tiny hole in your defense is better than a huge hole.

Maybe something like this might work better for you? https://www.benosy.com/#welcome

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