The mutation that helps Delta spread • Hacker News Board

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#521

Post by logicchains » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 5:44 AM UTC

belltaco wrote: post #483

dcolkitt wrote: post #446

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay, fair enough. But a major difference is that flu deaths are much more heavily burdened on the the young, whereas Covid is on the very elderly. The death of a 6 month old from flu results in approximately 20 times more QALY loss than an 85 year old. Let me approach it from another angle. Pre-vaccine, it appears that Covid roughly doubled everyone's all-cause mortality.[1] Like it killed 30 year olds at a much low…

>Let me approach it from another angle. Pre-vaccine, it appears that Covid roughly doubled everyone's all-cause mortality.[1] Like it killed 30 year olds at a much lower rate than 90 year olds, but 30 year olds have a much lower baseline mortality to begin with. This isn't an exact relationship, but approximately about double mortality across the board. (Even interestingly enough men's excess Covid death rate is abou…

>Covid would have way higher stats if it was allowed to spread unrestricted.

This is scientifically false; there's no correlation between lockdown severity and covid fatality rates. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5...: " Lastly, government actions such as border closures, full lockdowns, and a high rate of COVID-19 testing were not associated with statistically significant reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality"

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#522

Post by pama » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 5:56 AM UTC

ls612 wrote: post #377

pama wrote: post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming that all of Florida has the delta variant, right now 53% of all adult ICU patients is with COVID-19, and the total people in hospitals with COVID is about 79 per 100K. So I don’t understand why anyone thinks this variant is less dangerous. https://www.fha.org/covid-19.html

Less dangerous on an average individual level, more dangerous since its so contagious and can infect every last unvaccinated person who doesn't have antibodies (and a few who do).

I haven’t seen any credible evidence yet that delta is less dangerous at the individual level than alpha or than the original virus. We know that if a person is vaccinated, then exposure to the original variant is less dangerous than exposure to delta (based on limited controlled studies).

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#523

Post by jptech » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 5:57 AM UTC

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #77

hutzlibu wrote: post #61

I see the sentiment here expressed, that Covid is far from over. To be honest, I stopped following news since being fully vaccinated some time ago, so I am kind of ignorant here. Is the main problem, the unvaccinated, or that the Delta (and co.) variants are still, too dangerous for vaccinated people? Or is it the fear, that they will get more dangerous?

So here in Ontario where we're @ about 65% of the population totally vaccinated, today's new cases. Source: https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ont... 10.25/100k among people who are unvaccinated. 6.5/100k among people who are partially vaccinated. 1.0/100k among people who are fully vaccinated. For hospitalization: 2.04/100k for unvaccinated, 1.11/100k for partially, 0.21/100k for vaccinated. Fo…

I'm curious to know, how does the delay between the first and second shot, and mixing of vaccines that was done in Canada affect thr current infection rate there and the overall efficacy of such vaccines.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#524

Post by newbamboo » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 6:01 AM UTC

devnull3 wrote: post #494

jmfldn wrote: post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

I think a better metric now (compared to March 2020) is number of severe cases and hospitalizations and not number of infections. I wonder if we counted how many people got common cold/flu before the pandemic that number would also be large.

A nearby county is one of the few in the state that is honestly reporting the share of vaccinated cases being hospitalized. Only 2/3rds if the hospitals are reporting, and about half of the patients in those 2/3rds of hospitals are vaccinated. Of course without knowing the age of the patients and the vaccination rate for that age bracket it’s hard to make much sense of the numbers. That is intentional. The data are available and could be reported but they are not, intentionally.

That most counties are withholding this information— the share of hospitalized cases that are vaccinated— is unconscionable to me. Is that not misinformation? They have the data and could report it, they’re reporting all sorts of other information about hospitalizations. It’s quite clear that they are withholding this information to help market the vaccines to the unvaccinated. If they reported the share of severe cases that were fully vaccinated it might give justification to the hesitant.

The problem is, by withholding the data to shade the truth and provide “nudges” as Fauci likes to say, they are instilling a false sense of safety in many vaccinated high risk people.

I’ve had arguments with elderly high risk family members when I tried to alert them to the Israel data and the fact that the vaccines were losing efficacy. They thought I’d fallen prey to anti-vaxx conspiracy theories. They we’re “trusting the science” that was being quoted by their favorite politicians and news outlets. I was paying attention to the international scientific literature.

Ironically, similar arguments played out at the outset of the pandemic when I tried to warn them that despite the WHO repeatedly saying there was no evidence of a pandemic, there indeed was a pandemic rapidly approaching. One went to Chinese New Year party in San Francisco, encouraged specifically by Nancy Palosi.

Similarly, at the outset of the pandemic I tried to tell them to wear masks, but our vaunted experts told them not to.

Up until a few days ago, they thought their vaccines rendered them invincible. Thankfully the sourced they trust are now talking about boosters, so they are being more cautious.

I’m sick of dangerous misinformation but it’s mostly come from the media and politicians. The scientific literature with a few notable examples has been solid. Sadly most posters in this thread won’t read it. Instead they’ll “trust the science” that the news muppets tell them to.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#525

Post by tastyfreeze » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 6:05 AM UTC

OliverGilan wrote: post #383

aflag wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's so bad about face masks? Just trying to understand.

I wear glasses and masks are basically untenable. I have yet to wear a mask and not fog up my glasses. Maybe I'm just an idiot, I don't know, but being able to see properly is far more valuable to me than not getting COVID (in it's current state and threat level to me).

The only masks I have found that dont fog glasses are ones that have a metal wire bridge. It can be pinched to form fit the profile of your face. Now if I could just get my beard to stop pulling the mask down when I talk I would be happy.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#526

Post by mbalex99 » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 6:07 AM UTC

nine_k wrote: post #346

criticaltinker wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First off, I'm sorry you had to suffer like that - and I don't want anyone to be denied healthcare. > I’d rather vaccinate and mask up then be denied healthcare You've presented a false dichotomy here - mass vaccination and masking will not necessarily prevent overwhelmed hospitals. Israel is a prime example - with one of the highest vaccination rates in the world - their hospitals are being overwhelmed right now due…

Did you notice the distinct lack of flu outbreak last winter? I suppose marks and social distancing just prevented it altogether.

Did states that didn’t shut down schools or businesses see normal rates of flu? https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

It seems like it just disappeared regardless of restrictions.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#527

Post by systemvoltage » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 6:08 AM UTC

ivanhoe wrote: post #438

betwixthewires wrote: post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're misdirecting and missing the point entirely. While I'm not quite anti mask like the parent comment, it is an important question to consider, it is always a trade off. What severity warrant what measures? If there's still covid like now in 10 years, will we all have to wear masks at work until we retire? Is this feasible? If not, then when do we stop? Will the people advocating it ever tell us to stop? If not,…

> will we all have to wear masks at work until we retire It's really funny to watch all the push back against masks considering how many uncomfortable things people put on themselves every single day, and usually just because someone told them it's cool thing to do. High heels, bras, neckties, etc. and not to forget things that we do to our bodies like implants and piercings and tattoos - most of that is way less use…

I am surprised you didn't discuss how masks affect the most fundamental aspect of social interaction - loss of facial expressions. Our faces are so pivotal to social interaction, it is impossible to overstate.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#528

Post by nieve » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 6:33 AM UTC

epylar wrote: post #519

henrikschroder wrote: post #510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Healthy children are at approximately one-in-a-million risk of dying from covid-19 if they get infected. It's more dangerous for you to drive someplace with your kid than for your kid to remain unvaccinated. Children in risk groups should of course get vaccinated. But we're much better off making sure the limited supply of vaccines go to older people in other parts of the world than to healthy kids in the developed w…

Source for 1/1000000 death risk for children infected by covid-19 delta variant?

There is no source, if it was true children simply wouldn't have died in numbers high enough to detect so far.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#529

Post by dystroy » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 6:45 AM UTC

OliverGilan wrote: post #383

aflag wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's so bad about face masks? Just trying to understand.

I wear glasses and masks are basically untenable. I have yet to wear a mask and not fog up my glasses. Maybe I'm just an idiot, I don't know, but being able to see properly is far more valuable to me than not getting COVID (in it's current state and threat level to me).

30 years ago I switched to daily contact lenses to be able to play rugby. This was one of the best switches of my life and of course today I have no problem with masks. If you can, I really advise this.

Another option would be to wear a more efficient mask, a less leaking one. I find FFP2 to be quite convenient past the first few seconds when you're surprised by the difference of air flow. Those masks have the advantage of not moving, you don't typically have to adjust them and there's no fog on glasses.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#530

Post by jmfldn » Sat, Aug 21, 2021, 6:46 AM UTC

betwixthewires wrote: post #408

jmfldn wrote: post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

> ...the vaccine still stops serious illness to a high degree. Anecdotally, you don't know that, you don't know what caused you to have a mild case, if this had happened a year ago you wouldn't be giving credit to a vaccine. > it does seem like this virus is bucking the trend and not necessarily becoming less potent Don't you think it's possible your very mild case might be evidence against this claim? Anecdotal, of…

Sure I have no idea why the case was mild. This is just me saying "I seem to know a lot of vaccinated people who had mild cases".

"it just seems to me that someone having caught it and had a very mild case wouldn't logically jump to "it isn't less deadly."

I wasn't basing that on my own experience, just on random reports of studies I've picked up on. In two different studies from Canada and Scotland for example, patients infected with the Delta variant were more likely to be hospitalized than patients infected with Alpha or the original virus strains. So it does a least seem possible that it's both more infectious and more deadly to hospitalized individuals than other strains. It does seem like an unusual mutation therefore in that its both more deadly in theory, and more infectious. This is all I'm saying here.