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The mutation that helps Delta spread

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Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#361

Post by afarviral »

civilized wrote: post #266
criticaltinker wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What really should be happening should be a mass vaccination program Compulsory mass vaccination using the current vaccines poses a serious public health risk [1][2][3]. See my other comments here for more explanation and citations. For these reasons, vaccination strategies should be highly targeted towards vulnerable populations, and should be heavily supplemented by additional therapeutic modalities. > and a mass…

> Compulsory mass vaccination using the current vaccines poses a serious public health risk [1][2][3] None of your references say this or anything remotely implying this. Backing up a provocative claim with a snowblind of irrelevant references is a shameful misinformation tactic and you should stop doing it immediately. Doing it in a public health context is particularly dangerous and frankly disgusting.

Definitely a stretch but the linked studies are worth a read anyway.

I've only (cursorily) read [1] but it suggests combining different approaches for targeting immune response rather than the same approach across the populous. The risk would be assuming high levels of protection given how likely the virus is of escaping a single target through evolution. I guess that does pose a risk if people treat the current vaccines as a means to return to normal. My guess is variations on "the vaccines aren't very effective" are the biggest and most credible concerns people have though not a good reason to not receive them.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#362

Post by walterbell »

Florin_Andrei wrote: post #358
walterbell wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a social-acceptability phenomenon where people say one thing (e.g. in surveys) and do another (e.g. what they buy). Relatively early in 2020, some grocery and pharmacy shelves were completely emptied of Vit C/D/Zinc/Quercetin. When they were restocked, they would sell out again, even with per-customer quotas. This took place even with a complete news blackout on early treatments. As with HCQ/Ivermectin, we ha…

> there are billions of dollars of economic incentives for suppression of early treatment, because vaccines are still under EUA that could be questioned by the availability of therapeutics with decades of safety data Conspiracy theory. Rather old and naive, I should add. Zero Hedge is a cesspool of pseudo-science when it comes to COVID. The best data source can be twisted into complete nonsense when folks have politi…

Is there a better analysis of cross-region variations in Delta cases and deaths in India, which identifies non-Ivermectin factors for the difference in outcomes?

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#363

Post by nicoburns »

Barrin92 wrote: post #348
jimmaswell wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It has to end at some point, and for me and most other people where I live in the US, it mostly has.

>It has to end at some point In some countries at least it might become normalized the same way it has in say Japan or Singapore with a history of respiratory disease, the UK does not have the same aversion to public health measures as the US.

Perhaps not, but the UK has already made mask wearing non-mandatory.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#364

Post by Wowfunhappy »

irthomasthomas wrote: post #208
loosescrews wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that it appears that it is still unknown how likely breakthrough infections are to result in long Covid. The very limited data that does exist indicates that the likelyhood is rather high (~20%). https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/well/live/vaccine-long-co...

Long Covid has the same symptoms as stress, anxiety and depression, which are to be expected after contracting a pandemic level virus and being forced to isolate. Is there any proof yet that it is any more than that?

^ It's worth underscoring here that nocebo symptoms are absolutely real symptoms, they just aren't caused by the thing you think they're caused by!

It's not unreasonable to suspect that the nocebo effect is responsible for at least a very large portion of "long COVID" cases, particularly as many associated symptoms, such as brain fog, are very hard to test for!

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#365

Post by civilized »

afarviral wrote: post #361
civilized wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Compulsory mass vaccination using the current vaccines poses a serious public health risk [1][2][3] None of your references say this or anything remotely implying this. Backing up a provocative claim with a snowblind of irrelevant references is a shameful misinformation tactic and you should stop doing it immediately. Doing it in a public health context is particularly dangerous and frankly disgusting.

Definitely a stretch but the linked studies are worth a read anyway. I've only (cursorily) read [1] but it suggests combining different approaches for targeting immune response rather than the same approach across the populous. The risk would be assuming high levels of protection given how likely the virus is of escaping a single target through evolution. I guess that does pose a risk if people treat the current vacc…

The cited papers are definitely legitimate and interesting, even though they do not support the point the commenter wished to make. It's too bad that HN flagging means the OC can't be seen at all. Most content which deserves harsh criticism does not necessarily deserve full censorship, which can easily backfire.

We do need diversified defenses, but we shouldn't forget that our natural immunity is ultimately the line of defense that actually fights the virus. Vaccines just help it develop some particular tools against the spike protein. As of yet, I don't know any reason to believe that this prevents the immune system from forming more comprehensive and diverse defenses. On the contrary, the immune response is so complex and multifaceted that the vaccine-induced antibodies can only play a small role, albeit critical in the early stages of infection.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#366

Post by walterbell »

quarterdime wrote: post #352
walterbell wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some good references on asymptomatic transmission? Early 2020 reports of asymptomatic transmission from South Korea were later retracted. There was a contact tracing study of 10 million people in Wuhan which found no asymptomatic transmission.

I believe that "asymptomatic" refers to an infected individual who will never get symptoms. "Presymptomatic" means the individual has no symptoms, but will develop them later. As far as presymptomatic transmission, this is a good case study from Germany: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/4/20-4576_article . A 59 case cluster in which little/no asymptomatic transmission was observed, but 75% of transmission was pre…

Very helpful, thanks!

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#367

Post by afarviral »

civilized wrote: post #327
criticaltinker wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My emphasis is on compulsory , but perhaps I should've been more clear. Obviously I've triggered some people here. Vaccines are powerful tools that help save lives and we should use them. But if they are used indiscriminately they can actually further endanger public health. You might be familiar with antibiotic resistance - vaccines are subject to the same potential for unexpected consequences. All of the sources I…

I stand by my post. None of this says anything remotely implying what you claimed, that the mass vaccination programs pose a serious public health risk. That is purely your speculation, vaguely inspired by the content of the papers. Your contention that it matters whether the campaign is compulsory or not only takes you further from your supposed evidence base. It's not even in the same universe as what the papers ar…

Great retort BTW. I will be using the "... not eliminating the only one we currently have" line in future. Im worried that any concerns people have result in them being lumped in with conspiracy theorists/misinformants (?) but it seems irrational and dangerous to deter people from receiving some protection if the risks are more effectiveness and longevity rather than side-effects. My most lingering concern is simply that such a large number of people receiving the same few new vaccines seems like a gamble that we will all be forced to participate in. That's life though..freedom isn't always a given.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#368

Post by TillE »

tux1968 wrote: post #332
robertoandred wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vaccinated may be just as capable of spreading covid, but they’re less likely to be infected in the first place.

The vaccinated are not less likely to be infected. The vaccine can not stop infection, it can only help your body fight off the effects of infection.

You're describing mere exposure, which is quite unlikely to progress to an actual infection (a positive test result) among the vaccinated.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#369

Post by sfink »

sreque wrote: post #195
sfink wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your numbers are wrong (see other responses for why.) The herd immunity figure (1) legitimately changed with the variants, and (2) is always going to be a shot in the dark so personally I don't find much point in paying attention to government figures anyway. Government is providing figures to achieve an outcome; it's fundamentally a policy tool. If you want the science, listen to scientists. The delta variant is cur…

I misremembered the numbers but if you click to the linked analysis the numbers are correct there. As to the delta variant overwhelming hospitals, that's partially because hospitals are firing nurses that won't get vaccinated. The lack of beds is primarily a staffing problem and hospitals are shooting themselves in the foot. I've also heard they have been underpaying nurses and some are just quitting or switching to…

I know some doctors in affected areas. The hospitals were overwhelmed before any unvaccinated firings happened. The staff are incredibly exhausted, angry, and demoralized. Many went through this before with the first big wave, and not only are they back to insane hours and filling body bags, but now they have to deal with the awareness that it's unnecessary and avoidable.

If you'd like to confirm, dig up some medical staff on Twitter. "MedTwitter" is a thing. (But don't search based on keywords like "vaccine", because you will find what you seek. It'll be massively biased in a pro-vaccine direction. Find the medical professionals first, then see what they're saying.)

I think the question of whether to allow unvaccinated staff is a tricky one. I don't think it should be decided because some people are pissed off at vaccine resisters, and I haven't seen any strong evidence that it is. (I haven't looked, either.) Unvaccinated staff put their patients and coworkers at risk if they work, or if they don't work. Someone has to do the math.

Similarly for government intervention. It really bothers me when the government mandates anything. But I think of it like this:

Let's say I'm in a community that is fond of keeping tigers as pets. 5% of the population dies every year from wild tiger attacks. Many community members insist on letting their tigers be off-leash, calling it a fundamental part of their identity as tiger owners. Off-leash tigers kill 50% of the (remaining) human population each year.

I don't like leashing my tiger. But over half the people I know are dead. I would gather the community together and say, sorry guys, but we're going to have to agree to keep our kitties on leashes, no matter how friendly we think they are. And we're going to have to back up that agreement with expulsion, imprisonment, or taking tigers away. It sucks, but the risk is too high.

55% annual death rate is insanely high, but it makes the point that there is a number at which community (aka government) mandates are the right thing to do. We can argue at where the number ought to be, but not whether or not there is a number.

Right now, there are a lot of people dying, and a lot of "dry wood" that the virus is burning through. I think it's time to wet some of that fuel, whether it wants to get wet or not. (And even though we know some of that wet wood is still gonna burn.)

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#370

Post by aflag »

dcolkitt wrote: post #354
jmfldn wrote: post #151

Purely anecdotal but I'm double vaccinated (Astra Zeneca) and I caught Covid recently. It was probably Delta as 99% of cases in UK are. I know of quite a few vaccinated friends who've caught it recently too. Mainly AZ I think but one was Pfizer (single jabbed). Anyway, none of us had severe illness although I felt pretty rough for a few days like I had a really bad cold and smell went for a week completely. I was bas…

There’s a question of preferences that too often gets buried in this debate. If Covid becomes endemic at around its current severity, what level of pandemic restrictions are you willing to accept forever? For me personally, Covid would have to be at least 100 times worse before I’d support masking forever. But I get the sense that some people barely see any downside to it. I think these cross-views drive so much if t…

What's so bad about face masks? Just trying to understand.
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