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The mutation that helps Delta spread

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Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#481

Post by saalweachter »

godmode2019 wrote: post #359
rolph wrote: post #334

Earlier quoted context omitted.

when reproduction[X] occurs before a selective factor[y] is in play, the selective factor has no first order influence on reproductive success. the theory of inverse relationship between severity of symptoms and transmissibility, is based on the idea that sick individuals spend more time laying in convolesence than interacting with other individuals. this mechanism goes out the window when the infection is transmissi…

Its also based on what is not getting used to increase fitness gets repurposed. Causing illness in the host after it has finished spreading has no evolutionary advantage. So those traits are less likely to make it to the next epoch.

And if an additional 1% spread can be achieved after the asymptomatic period by the host coughing their lungs out, which way will evolution favor?

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#482

Post by krapp »

JackFr wrote: post #473
aflag wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's so bad about face masks? Just trying to understand.

Eating, drinking, smiling, frowning, grimacing, talking, kissing, recognizing our friends are all social activities that are impeded by masks. Humans are social animals.

People tend to take their masks off while eating, drinking and kissing. It's easy to tell when someone is smiling or frowning even if they're wearing a mask (unless their expressions are extremely subtle), and recognizing people when they're wearing a mask is no more difficult than with a mask off.

I suppose everyone's situation is different but I haven't noticed any change in the way people interact around me socially with or without a mask.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#483

Post by belltaco »

dcolkitt wrote: post #446
mynegation wrote: post #432

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know it may all look like small potatoes, but this is HN and you are two orders of magnitude off. 0.01% is pretty close to annual death rate from flu in pre-COVID years [1] so the situation that "one hundred times worse than the current situation" will make it 100 hundred times worse (i.e. significantly worse) than seasonal influenza. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Okay, fair enough. But a major difference is that flu deaths are much more heavily burdened on the the young, whereas Covid is on the very elderly. The death of a 6 month old from flu results in approximately 20 times more QALY loss than an 85 year old. Let me approach it from another angle. Pre-vaccine, it appears that Covid roughly doubled everyone's all-cause mortality.[1] Like it killed 30 year olds at a much low…

>Let me approach it from another angle. Pre-vaccine, it appears that Covid roughly doubled everyone's all-cause mortality.[1] Like it killed 30 year olds at a much lower rate than 90 year olds, but 30 year olds have a much lower baseline mortality to begin with. This isn't an exact relationship, but approximately about double mortality across the board. (Even interestingly enough men's excess Covid death rate is about in line with their general mortality vis-a-vis women.)

I don't get why almost everyone compares death and disease rates of something with basically unrestricted spread(flu) with something that has had heavy precautions taken around it, i.e lockdowns, isolation, social distancing masking (Covid).

Covid would have way higher stats if it was allowed to spread unrestricted.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#484

Post by manwe150 »

solarengineer wrote: post #394
tiahura wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“what level of pandemic restrictions are you willing to accept forever?” That’s the question our leaders seem to be terrified to answer. How long until Fauci admits that its not just going to go away?

Non-American here from Singapore. There’s “not going away” and then there’s “are enough vaccinated? Are the vulnerable vaccinated? Do we have hospital bed and nurse +doctor capacity?” Here in Singapore, we’re ensuring that those above 60 get vaccinated where feasible before we fully open up. Meanwhile, with an increasing percentage of the population getting vaccinated, there are gradual lifting of controls. The Minis…

If you look at past graphs, the US could have been fully vaccinated by mid-June or perhaps July. The current problems faced by the hospital system in some areas of the US were probably avoidable, so what is true for Singapore’s policies is not the same in the US.

But it is likely quite hard to predict hospital utilization, since it changes many weeks after we needed to change behaviors to maybe avoid it.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#485

Post by rsfern »

tiahura wrote: post #372
dcolkitt wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s a question of preferences that too often gets buried in this debate. If Covid becomes endemic at around its current severity, what level of pandemic restrictions are you willing to accept forever? For me personally, Covid would have to be at least 100 times worse before I’d support masking forever. But I get the sense that some people barely see any downside to it. I think these cross-views drive so much if t…

“what level of pandemic restrictions are you willing to accept forever?” That’s the question our leaders seem to be terrified to answer. How long until Fauci admits that its not just going to go away?

I get that Fauci in particular is a controversial figure for some reason, but he’s for a long time been realistic that this virus has a high probability of becoming endemic [0]. I’m not sure why anyone would single him out as opposed to political leaders who sort of have a habit of addressing (or not) issues obliquely.

[0]: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/02/17/covid-...

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#486

Post by sfink »

BjoernKW wrote: post #189
hncurious wrote: post #70

Covid is going to be endemic like the flu and cold. It's not going to be eradicated, unfortunately, and I don't think we've come to terms with this yet. Now what's our plan exactly? Get vaccinated every 6 - 12 months indefinitely and always wear masks? What's our goal and what's our new normal?

I've been asking those questions for about 16 months now and hardly anyone of those in charge is willing to even consider an answer. They just botch and bumble their way through from one lockdown to the next. The COVID-19 vaccines are a boon and a vital component for ending this crisis. However, they're not the panacea those in charge made them out to be. Make no mistake, those vaccines, particularly those of the mRN…

My impression is that the tests are not yet fast, accurate, and noninvasive enough for #4. I'm skeptical that we can vaccinate our way out of this mess completely, and I don't think we can test our way out yet either.

If we can improve the tests sufficiently, though, then I think your plan makes a lot of sense. I think of COVID as fire. Keep the fuel damp (#1, #2, natural immunity), don't pile up too much in one place (#3, low cost forms of social distancing), and watch for flare ups so you can douse them quickly (#4, sorta). Don't worry about putting the fire out, just keep it from burning down the forest.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#487

Post by criticaltinker »

vkou wrote: post #226
criticaltinker wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because mass vaccination combined with a vaccine that does not necessarily prevent infection and transmission creates selective pressure that is likely to further enhance the fitness of the virus and will lead to variants that escape the immune response in both vaccinated and naturally infected individuals. Excerpts from [1]: - "The spike protein receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 is the molecular target for…

> Because mass vaccination combined with a vaccine that does not necessarily prevent infection and transmission creates selective pressure that is likely to further enhance the fitness of the virus and will lead to variants that escape the immune response in both vaccinated and naturally infected individuals. And yet, the Delta variant evolved in an 100% unvaccinated population - and is quite happily punching through…

> We have two broad options for reducing the number of dangerous COVID mutations

This is a false dichotomy, we have way more than two options. Below you'll find that I have supported my claim with exceptionally well cited publications and results from recent high quality clinical trials showing promising results.

A) strategies to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission that exert specific pressure on other proteins (e.g., antiviral prophylactics) [1][2][3][4][5][6]

B) strategies that do not exert a specific selective pressure on the virus (e.g., high-efficiency air filtration, masking, ultraviolet air purification)

C) Vaccines are absolutely part of the answer here. However, compulsory mass vaccination alone is exceedingly unlikely to be a solution - for all the reasons and evidence put forth in the citations of my previous comment - and because data from all over the world is showing that high vaccination rates alone are not preventing the dominance of VOCs [7][8].

[1] Multifaceted highly targeted sequential multidrug treatment of early ambulatory high-risk SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19) https://scholarlycommons.henryford.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?a...

[2] Multidrug treatment for COVID-19 https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ddt/advpub/0/advpub_202...

[3] Ivermectin in combination with doxycycline for treating COVID-19 symptoms: a randomized trial https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33983065/

[4] Baricitinib plus Remdesivir for Hospitalized Adults with Covid-19 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33306283/

[5] A review of therapeutic agents and Chinese herbal medicines against SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7237953/

[6] Fluvoxamine: A Review of Its Mechanism of Action and Its Role in COVID-19 https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphar.2021.6526...

[7] Update on Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants and COVID-19 vaccines https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...

[8] COVID-19 Science Update released: August 13, 2021 Edition 102 https://www.cdc.gov/library/covid19/08132021_covidupdate.htm...

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#488

Post by manwe150 »

breck wrote: post #385
civilized wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I stand by my post. None of this says anything remotely implying what you claimed, that the mass vaccination programs pose a serious public health risk. That is purely your speculation, vaguely inspired by the content of the papers. Your contention that it matters whether the campaign is compulsory or not only takes you further from your supposed evidence base. It's not even in the same universe as what the papers ar…

I disagree. I think it is a serious public health risk, at a certain probability, and you've provided no sources or math to explain what the probability is. Can you enlighten us as to what the probability of vaccine escape is? Is the risk of vaccine escape 50%? 5%? .5%? .00005%? I have no idea what the OOM of possibilities is (I am attempting to model it). I appreciate all literature that explores that. Clearly we've…

FWIW, there is precedent both in 1918 (when the Supreme Court ruled it was constitutional), and during the revolutionary war (when George Washington made history by vaccinating his troops with a new experiment technique called a vaccine)

When discussing vaccine escape (unlike antibacterial mutation pressure) I seem to usually see it described as an issue for diseases which already have many strains: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigenic_escape. Which wouldn’t yet apply to COVID. And is not a problem for the mRNA technique (which can simply change the target sequence and give a new/booster shot).

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#489

Post by james-skemp »

dcolkitt wrote: post #418
Jeema101 wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope I am mistaken here, but... are you saying that it would need to kill 1/6th of the population every year (instead of 1/600) before you will consider putting a piece of cloth over your face? What's so terrible about wearing a mask?

The Covid death rate among vaccinated people is under 0.01%[1]. One hundred times worse than the current situation would make Covid not significantly worse than seasonal influenza for the vaccinated. Sure, one hundred times worse among those who refuse to vaccinate would be significantly worse. But if a significant proportion of the population voluntarily refuses to vaccinate, I see no reason why the rest of society…

> those who refuse to vaccinate

Please don't forget about children who don't have a vaccine, or individuals that can't vaccinate.

Last I heard maybe next year children under 12 (?, mine is under 5) will have a vaccine. But with talk of a third shot, and possible issues with Moderna, we'll see.

Re: The mutation that helps Delta spread

#490

Post by criticaltinker »

rileyphone wrote: post #297
criticaltinker wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Fortunately the vaccines are very effective at preventing death Yes individuals who have been vaccinated or recovered from natural infection will have durable immunity and significantly lower risk of severe outcomes like hospitalization and death. [5][6] The real question: is mass vaccination effective at preventing the spread and increasing trasmission/virulence of variants of concern? A growing body of the scient…

[2] states: > The UK should continue to proactively support a strategy of worldwide effective vaccination in order to drive down global viral load reducing the likelihood of dangerous variants emerging in other parts of the world. In any case, even if vaccines lead to stronger variants (as some of the research you cited states is possible), a game theoretical situation is created where enough people are vaccinated th…

> immediately start making a new one with the same technology

Take a look at what happened with Marek's disease virus in chickens to get a taste for why this could be a very bad idea [1][2].

> a situation is created where enough people are vaccinated that those who are not are just leaving themselves in greater danger

Yes this is exactly what happens, and is corroborated by the citations I provided in this comment.

Do you want to live in a world where you literally cannot survive without vaccination, because multiple generations of vaccines have been undermined by viral evolution? What you're suggesting is exactly how that can happen.

[1] Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371%2Fj...

[2] Marek’s disease in chickens: a review with focus on immunology https://veterinaryresearch.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.118...

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