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Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

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Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The solution to a market inefficiency isn't to involve a more inefficient entity.

Then what's the solution? Seems like the government is the only entity that can intervene if market forces are counter to supply chain resilience. This is partially the justification for agricultural subsidies in the US, so clearly there is precedent.

> Then what's the solution?

Time and capital investment. It's like this generation of people have never heard of production and supply disruptions, and were oblivious to such things being possible. Frankly, this doesn't matter very much, it's not a critical situation.

The auto market malfunctioning short-term due to a pandemic doesn't present a strong argument for government intervention. Tesla can't make batteries fast enough, there isn't enough supply, its restraining their auto production, the government must step in and fix the problem! It's nonsense. The government should not step in every time there is a short-term problem in a market.

Toyota won't sell as many vehicles. So what.

I know, I know, but what if people have to make due with a three year old vehicle. What if they have to suffer and endure those vehicles being made to last for five or six years. Ten years! The horror.

Toyota won't die. Time will pass, during which necessary investments and adjustments will be made. Supply will be increased. The problem will be fixed. It's as simple as some time and capital investment. The companies that maneuver the best will come out ahead, gaining an advantage on their competitors. And the world keeps on spinning.

Toyota has generated something like $90-$100 billion in operating income the past five years. They have the resources - and then some - to fix the problem. If they choose not to or can't that's their own incompetence, their competitors will eat their lunch. Never feel bad for a corporation earning $20 billion a year. If they can't get their production corrected, someone else will figure it out and reap the benefits.

It does not matter as much as is being portrayed. This is not an important problem and does not warrant the government burning its time and resources to step in and fix (assuming they can help at all). Governments have a lot of other far more important things to be focused on.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a pretty axiomatic view that governments can never be as responsive or as efficient as markets. The more commonly accepted economic wisdom is that they are usually less efficient and responsive than free market forces operating under ideal conditions. There is a lot of room for market failures, inefficiencies and temporal dynamics to change the balance. The are plenty of examples of government regulatory bodi…

The Federal Reserve hardly responds to market conditions. Their free and open printing of money is arguably the greatest risk to our economy. Milton Friedman has great resources on this, including a video series from the 1970s (based on clothing alone) called Free to Choose. Its on Youtube, amongst other places.

Natural boom-and-bust cycles are a huge risk to economies as well, despite the fact that they're natural and don't have anyone for which we can point a finger at.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how many of these people rant about how bad the government is while using GPS to navigate their way to work on government funded roadways.

As if those things wouldn't innovate in the market? Or because 1 thing came from the government, then all things the government touches are gold?

The free market can do a lot when it has the basic requirements to operate, but the point is that government spending is the only solution when we end up with a chicken/egg problem as the OP pointed out.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#344

As Taleb likes to say, an efficient system is the opposite of a robust system, kind of by definition. We are now witnessing the effects of our modern hyper-efficient just-in-time global manufacturing system.

Relevant: The Security Value of Inefficiency by Bruce Schneier

> This drive for efficiency leads to brittle systems that function properly when everything is normal but break under stress. And when they break, everyone suffers. The less fortunate suffer and die. The more fortunate are merely hurt, and perhaps lose their freedoms or their future. But even the extremely fortunate suffer — maybe not in the short term, but in the long term from the constriction of the rest of society.

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2020/07/the_security_...

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#346
post #308

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A negative feedback loop in semiconductor supply seems like a situation where a government should just step in manage the market a bit.

It is a positive feedback loop, not a negative feedback loop. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_feedback .

It’s negative WRT the chip production rate.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#348

If you have a taste for irony, my company makes critical components for semiconductor equipment. If we can't ship, equipment companies can't ship new equipment. If they can't ship, semiconductor fabs can't increase capacity to meet the demand and solve the shortage. We went line down last week due to shortage of a chip for our component. In reality, the shortage is somewhat self-inflicted, like toilet paper a year ag…

A negative feedback loop in semiconductor supply seems like a situation where a government should just step in manage the market a bit.

absolutely no. government interventions rarely (if ever) are helpful in managing supply and demand.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then what's the solution? Seems like the government is the only entity that can intervene if market forces are counter to supply chain resilience. This is partially the justification for agricultural subsidies in the US, so clearly there is precedent.

Apple approach, invest in your supply chain Extra points by diversifying from China/Taiwan In direct opposition, Auto makers approach of minimizing inventory and producing "just-in-time" caused them to be vulnerable to supply chain or big market shifts

> Extra points by diversifying from China/Taiwan

Take a look on the linkedin jobs in Shenzhen.

The trend IS NOT towards diversification. In the last 5 years since Trump's election, US multinationals were increasing their presence in China, not decreasing.

Google for example said to open "a small representative office" in Shenzhen 2 years ago, now it's a full giant RnD centre in the Ping An Tower where they shipped all of Pixel's development.

Apple had RnD offices in China for more than a decade, but they barely acknowledged their existence. Their people in the Kerry Plaza were prohibited by their contract to even show their employment for Apple in their LinkedIn profiles. Their Shenzhen RnD centre is where AirPods were developed, along with many other iPad, and iPhone sub-assemblies. Apple's VR goggles project had its start in Shenzhen as well.

Amazon had no presence whatsoever in China besides a failed Chinese Amazon.com launch. They left China, and then returned to move the whole of their Kindle, and Echo device development to Shenzhen. Now they are working on something rather cryptic there. Some suggest VR goggles of their own design.

Facebook... absolutely bizarrely opened their RnD centre in Shenzhen amid the COVID, just a floor below Google I heard.

Dell, Microsoft, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Intel — all conventional hardware makers were here since nineties, but I think they really doubled down on China recently as well too, to one up the dotcom upstarts in hardware.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but pontificating on government inefficiencies doesn't actually improve supply chain weakness either.

The comment was a response to a suggestion that the solution to the chip shortage was government intervention. I don't consider giving a evidence to the contrary of an argument as pontificating.

Ok but point to the part of that comment which was evidence?

Claiming that the results of ag subsidies have been "nightmarish" with no further elaboration or citation does nothing to advance the conversation, it's simply a strongly worded opinion.

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