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Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

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Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#321
post #298

Will the car price starts to increase due to the chip shortage?

Price increases already happened in the US for used cars. This will only continue the premium for used cars.

Why is it not affecting new car pricing as dramatically? And why would that continue? Used car prices cannot surpass new car prices surely, so at some point new car prices will be raised because of the low supply and high demand, or new car orders won't be fulfilled for months later

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A negative feedback loop in semiconductor supply seems like a situation where a government should just step in manage the market a bit.

Just the opposite. Need to let people raise prices to encourage slack in the system. Let’s prices settle where chip makers can produce new chips. There are market failures where the government needs to step in, but this isn’t one. Even with climate change (where they should step in) the government can’t get to the point of saying it’s ok for gas prices to be high. We don’t want the government to pick winners and lose…

It's a puzzle to me why companies like nvidia didn't just raise prices and instead left both customers and profit to the dirty world of scalpers.

I guess it's "brand damage" but I feel there would be something more fair and honest if in times of tight supply they ran their own ebay-like store and auctioned them off. It wouldn't feel like a price hike and prices could automatically settle as supply/demand reaches parity.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The solution to a market inefficiency isn't to involve a more inefficient entity.

This is a pretty axiomatic view that governments can never be as responsive or as efficient as markets. The more commonly accepted economic wisdom is that they are usually less efficient and responsive than free market forces operating under ideal conditions. There is a lot of room for market failures, inefficiencies and temporal dynamics to change the balance. The are plenty of examples of government regulatory bodi…

> The Federal Reserve Bank, for example, responds quickly to changing market conditions

The Fed was established by Congress and the Chair is appointed by the President, however the Fed is still a private institution. That independence makes it a very different organization than what most people mean by government.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#324

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how many of these people rant about how bad the government is while using GPS to navigate their way to work on government funded roadways.

On the DARPA derived internet, no less.

DARPA funded the basic research. Then the actual Internet was largely built by for-profit private sector companies. That hybrid model seems to usually be the most effective for major new innovations.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#325
post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Car prices won't go back to normal again though. They will come up clever financing schemes to make people pay but the prices will never be reduced.

This is mostly just a reflection of the fact that the value of the dollar has declined precipitously over the last 18 months. Dollar prices are sticky, so it can take a bit of a shock for inflation to “kick in”, but we’ve had plenty of shocks to go around.

I don't think it's fair to attribute "most" of this to inflation. Car prices have been rising much faster than many other components of CPI, so even in real rather than nominal dollars cars are getting more expensive.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A negative feedback loop in semiconductor supply seems like a situation where a government should just step in manage the market a bit.

Just the opposite. Need to let people raise prices to encourage slack in the system. Let’s prices settle where chip makers can produce new chips. There are market failures where the government needs to step in, but this isn’t one. Even with climate change (where they should step in) the government can’t get to the point of saying it’s ok for gas prices to be high. We don’t want the government to pick winners and lose…

What makes you think the most critical uses have the most money to pay for chips? I'd imagine there's a lot of crappy (or in any case not critical) consumer products that have much higher margins.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A negative feedback loop in semiconductor supply seems like a situation where a government should just step in manage the market a bit.

What experiences with which government would lead you to believe that bureaucrats -- most of whom have never run a company nor made a product -- would be capable of "managing the market"?

I'm not sure experience running a company is necessarily a good thing here, or at the very least, not pertinent. Wall St.'s and the American people's interests are not necessarily in line. The US' previous president ran some companies and did not really do a good job in this regard, either, wrt his trade wars.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#328
Many countries have a funny concept of strategic industries.

In mine, dairy is a strategic industry that is coddled by government so that we can have a local source. But every country thinks that so there’s foes and allies that can supply us UHT or powder milk on a moment’s notice. And if our milk supply disappeared tomorrow, everyone over 1y could substitute with 10000000 different things for nutrition.

Cars are another. Every country props up its auto industry, so why worry about a domestic supply?

Meanwhile, there are critical components, pharma ingredients or other inputs built in 1 factory in a country we could likely end up in a big dispute with.

Just goes to show that industry protection has nothing to do with risk/dependence on that product, and everything to do with picking and choosing which industries are important voting bases.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#329

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The solution to a market inefficiency isn't to involve a more inefficient entity.

This is a pretty axiomatic view that governments can never be as responsive or as efficient as markets. The more commonly accepted economic wisdom is that they are usually less efficient and responsive than free market forces operating under ideal conditions. There is a lot of room for market failures, inefficiencies and temporal dynamics to change the balance. The are plenty of examples of government regulatory bodi…

The Federal Reserve hardly responds to market conditions. Their free and open printing of money is arguably the greatest risk to our economy. Milton Friedman has great resources on this, including a video series from the 1970s (based on clothing alone) called Free to Choose. Its on Youtube, amongst other places.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A negative feedback loop in semiconductor supply seems like a situation where a government should just step in manage the market a bit.

Just the opposite. Need to let people raise prices to encourage slack in the system. Let’s prices settle where chip makers can produce new chips. There are market failures where the government needs to step in, but this isn’t one. Even with climate change (where they should step in) the government can’t get to the point of saying it’s ok for gas prices to be high. We don’t want the government to pick winners and lose…

Exactly, its so weird that price sensitive recluses never just considered that GPUs were undervalued?

“Omg these [new market entrants] are messing up my ability to take screenshots of my framerate and never enjoy myself”

Well now its back to business use cases!

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