Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40% • Hacker News Board

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#331

Post by oldsklgdfth » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:47 PM UTC

wonderwonder wrote: post #87

So new cars are going to be come more expensive due to supply limitations and in turn used cars will continue to become more expensive as they can rise to a certain % of the new car price. At the same time housing prices continue to sky rocket. Seems like not a great time for someone just stepping into adulthood and financial responsibility.

> stepping into adulthood and financial responsibility

The timing of my life events is one of the things I am most grateful of.

I graduated in 2014 and within a couple years I bought a house. Strong job market for an employee and low interest rate.

I know people that were getting PhDs, because they started undergrad in the aftermath of the housing bubble and couldn't find jobs when finished. I also know people that decided to buy a house before the bubble and are still stuck underwater, preventing them to pursue opportunities not in their area. I also know people that went into medicine as tuition became ridiculous and have no way of servicing their student loans.

I guess what I'm getting at is count your blessings. Others may not be as fortunate as you.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#332

Post by whall6 » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:47 PM UTC

HideousKojima wrote: post #98

patentatt wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Robustness isn't incompatible with capitalism, it's incompatible with any system where the government is willing to swoop in and bail out companies that fail. Companies that plan around failures/shortages/disruptions lose the ability to profit from their planning, while those that didn't plan ahead get showered with free money or cheap loans.

I don’t understand why this is getting downvoted considering this is almost verbatim what Taleb preaches.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#333

Post by throwaway0a5e » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:48 PM UTC

itsoktocry wrote: post #276

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Especially when comparing to Toyota. Toyota been saying "don't worry guys, we fixed the rust issues, the new ones won't be rusting out" every year since 1985 and running a more or less rolling recall since the 00s. Or was that not the implication of your comparison? Teslas will last a long time because the most important indicator of vehicle reliability is one that they share more or less 1:1 with Toyota, customers…

> share more or less 1:1 with Toyota, customers who who put very easy miles on vehicles Like all the Toyota trucks used in military operations around the world? Those kind of "easy miles"? Comparing these two companies, with vastly different scales of operation, is kind of silly.

The edge between manufacturers in any given measurable attribute of vehicle performance is far, far smaller than a bunch of screeching fanboys on the internet would have you believe. If it weren't you'd see far less diversity of vehicles on the road.

The humvee is also used by militaries all around the world. It's not known for particularly great reliability. Militaries have a much difference set of objectives when it comes to labor vs supply chain complexity vs cost than civilian entities and individuals do.

Poor countries in Africa and the middle east use Toyotas a lot for the same reason they still use 7.62 intermediate cartridges a lot. It's what they have, it's what their supply chains are tuned for. It does the job they need, not necessarily with maximal efficiency but well enough they can't justify the cost of switching.

Meanwhile in the civilian market Toyotas cost more, don't do good incentives/rebates and financing is more limited. This drives people on a budget to other brands. This means Toyotas wind up in the hands of people who treat them proportionally nicer. A Tacoma rolls off the lot and into an upscale garage. A Colorado rolls off the dealer lot and into a commercial fleet where it will be driven by a bunch of people who aren't paid enough to care. A Camry will have one ass in one seat for the first 100k and it will go from home to work and home to work. An Altima will spend its first 100k dragging a family of four all of the places they need to go. A Sienna's first owner will go to home Depot, buy 3000lb of pavers and rent the truck to drive it home. A Town and Country's first owner will put that in the van without thinking twice.

See what I'm getting at here? Being expensive up front means that only people who can afford to be nice to things get their hands on them, at least initially, that means the vehicles rack up more miles and years before they see hard use. Any vehicle not fundamentally flawed to begin with can look reliable in the hands of these people. I can present other examples of this if Toyota is too emotional of a topic for people to discuss.

Also it should go without saying that we're talking in broad generalizations here.

I do agree with you that the scale difference between Tesla and Toyota is massive and comparison between them is silly.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#334

Post by abfan1127 » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:48 PM UTC

MagicWishMonkey wrote: post #290

ramesh31 wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah yes, the Herbert Hoover approach.

I wonder how many of these people rant about how bad the government is while using GPS to navigate their way to work on government funded roadways.

As if those things wouldn't innovate in the market? Or because 1 thing came from the government, then all things the government touches are gold?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

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Post by [deleted] » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:49 PM UTC

Scoundreller wrote: post #328

Many countries have a funny concept of strategic industries. In mine, dairy is a strategic industry that is coddled by government so that we can have a local source. But every country thinks that so there’s foes and allies that can supply us UHT or powder milk on a moment’s notice. And if our milk supply disappeared tomorrow, everyone over 1y could substitute with 10000000 different things for nutrition. Cars are ano…

[deleted]

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

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Post by pjc50 » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:50 PM UTC

2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #195

What are the barriers here? As sophisticated as automobiles have become I don't see them needing bleeding edge 5nm fabs. My bigger question is: Why is there not a thriving "small business" chip fab industry?

The minimum cost of entry is in the hundreds of millions to billions, it's not especially environmentally friendly, and you're competing against what would normally be fully-paid-off old production lines from the incumbents.

There's a thriving small business design industry, but the manufacturing is a classical capital-intensive manufacturing business that also requires very specialist staff.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#337

Post by varispeed » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:50 PM UTC

There is a lot of scalping going on. I keep an eye on certain parts and as soon the stock comes up, it disappears within minutes. Then you can buy all those chips on AliBaba at 10 times the price. I think government should look into that as this is a huge problem for many businesses.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#338

Post by cinntaile » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:50 PM UTC

duncanawoods wrote: post #322

mathattack wrote: post #297

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just the opposite. Need to let people raise prices to encourage slack in the system. Let’s prices settle where chip makers can produce new chips. There are market failures where the government needs to step in, but this isn’t one. Even with climate change (where they should step in) the government can’t get to the point of saying it’s ok for gas prices to be high. We don’t want the government to pick winners and lose…

It's a puzzle to me why companies like nvidia didn't just raise prices and instead left both customers and profit to the dirty world of scalpers. I guess it's "brand damage" but I feel there would be something more fair and honest if in times of tight supply they ran their own ebay-like store and auctioned them off. It wouldn't feel like a price hike and prices could automatically settle as supply/demand reaches pari…

They probably did, the only cards they produce under the Nvidia brand are the Founders Edition cards and those are sold for MSRP. Everything else is made by their partners and those cards increased in price.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#339

Post by eplanit » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:51 PM UTC

dfxm12 wrote: post #327

eplanit wrote: post #310

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What experiences with which government would lead you to believe that bureaucrats -- most of whom have never run a company nor made a product -- would be capable of "managing the market"?

I'm not sure experience running a company is necessarily a good thing here, or at the very least, not pertinent. Wall St.'s and the American people's interests are not necessarily in line. The US' previous president ran some companies and did not really do a good job in this regard, either, wrt his trade wars.

You're simply wrong. The US's economy was doing _great_ under the previous administration, and even top Democrats agreed that it was right to put strong pressure on China re: trade.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/392636-schumer-on-c...

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

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Post by rrrrrrrrrrrryan » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:51 PM UTC

Causality1 wrote: post #263

only_as_i_fall wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then what's the solution? Seems like the government is the only entity that can intervene if market forces are counter to supply chain resilience. This is partially the justification for agricultural subsidies in the US, so clearly there is precedent.

The nightmarish results of agricultural subsidies in the US is an excellent reason to not involve the government in the chip shortage.

But agricultural studies are working as intended?

The U.S. government has decided that it's in our national security interest to remain a net exporter of crops.

If World War III broke out and all the borders shut down, America would still be able to feed herself. The U.K. wouldn't. There would be mass starvation in much of the first world, and people would say "the government should've done something."

All the diabetes is a pretty rough unintended consequence, I'll give you that, but shifting some chip fabs to our shores as a matter of national security doesn't sound like too bad of an idea.