Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40% • Hacker News Board

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#271

Post by everdrive » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:12 PM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #104

brobdingnagians wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe this is a dumb question, but does anyone still produce cars without chips? It's possible, and in the current environment it seems like it would be a major competitive advantage-- and might be more reliable in general.

>and might be more reliable in general Cars in, say, the 1960s were not "more reliable in general." It's not all semiconductor-related of course--they also rusted out quickly in areas that got snow--but 5 years/50K miles is about what you were looking at for vehicle lifetime. Also much lower fuel efficiency, to say nothing of lack of what we'd consider routine safety features today.

In addition, breakdowns were a much more regular occurrence. It wasn’t unheard of for brakes to fail without warning. I hate computer-laden cars quite a bit, but as you say, cars have become much more reliable than they ever were in the past. (Written while parked in a 17 year old Toyota.)

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#272

Post by Kiro » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:12 PM UTC

hef19898 wrote: post #171

dd36 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought Toyota invented not doing that.

JIT is probably the most mis-understood supply chain concept.

How?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#273

Post by bluGill » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:12 PM UTC

tlocke wrote: post #265

eldaisfish wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consider for a moment the people outside the developed world whose lives are greatly improved by cars. Scarcity drives prices up putting things out of their reach.

Cars tend to diminish quality of life. Local, walkable and cyclable neighbourhoods on the other hand enable people to flourish. When people have to travel by vehicle, trains and trams are superior to cars.

Cars are only diminish quality of life when there are too many in a given area. For every person along the way though a car is a greater improvement than no car. Sure each one harms the overall quality of life, but the individual is better off.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#274

Post by lotsofpulp » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:13 PM UTC

ren_engineer wrote: post #237

lotsofpulp wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Instead they should put a massive tariff on any chip not made in the US. Companies that invested here would be rewarded for loyalty Voters would have rewarded politicians who supported these tariffs by voting them out of office for making all their toys more expensive. Everyone likes cheaper stuff and more stuff in the short term.

voters have complained about stuff being made in China for years and if it was framed from a nation security perspective you'd get wide bipartisan support. The current chip subsidy program literally just got wide bipartisan support, it's extremely popular

Now that the effects have been felt, yes. But not a few decades ago when the majority were enjoying cheaper goods. Even now, I do not see broad support for tariffs in order to bring production back to the country.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#275

Post by alistairSH » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:13 PM UTC

dahfizz wrote: post #204

codesnik wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

how? can you capitalize on that upside somehow? sell them, live in a tent until prices are down?

HELOC's are very common. You can cash out on all that new home equity and install solar panels, build an extension, put in a pool....

That's assuming you have the cash-flow to float the new loan. If you bought the home 5+ years ago, that might be true, but for anybody who bought recently, that's probably not an option.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#276

Post by itsoktocry » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:13 PM UTC

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #93

lotsofpulp wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have not even been out long enough to make that claim. Especially when comparing to Toyota.

>Especially when comparing to Toyota. Toyota been saying "don't worry guys, we fixed the rust issues, the new ones won't be rusting out" every year since 1985 and running a more or less rolling recall since the 00s. Or was that not the implication of your comparison? Teslas will last a long time because the most important indicator of vehicle reliability is one that they share more or less 1:1 with Toyota, customers…

>share more or less 1:1 with Toyota, customers who who put very easy miles on vehicles

Like all the Toyota trucks used in military operations around the world? Those kind of "easy miles"? Comparing these two companies, with vastly different scales of operation, is kind of silly.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#277

Post by ghaff » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:13 PM UTC

CryptoPunk wrote: post #234

ghaff wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>and might be more reliable in general Cars in, say, the 1960s were not "more reliable in general." It's not all semiconductor-related of course--they also rusted out quickly in areas that got snow--but 5 years/50K miles is about what you were looking at for vehicle lifetime. Also much lower fuel efficiency, to say nothing of lack of what we'd consider routine safety features today.

Capitalism really promotes planned durability.

Cars are 1.) expensive enough and 2.) required by many people to work in order to get through the day that, while plenty of people also want the latest and greatest, most value reliability and long lifetime a lot. (To the point where these are tracked pretty carefully by organizations like CR.)

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#278

Post by davidrm » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:14 PM UTC

bluGill wrote: post #240

gameswithgo wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chips are small, don't age fast. Make sense as an exception to the rule.

Chips also go out of production suddenly (with only a couple years warning - which isn't anywhere near enough time to replace them all). thus any major manufacture has stockpiles of chips that are no longer in production that need to last until production of the widget switches to new chips and have enough left over as spare parts for existing widgets.

> Chips also go out of production suddenly (with only a couple years warning...)

No they don't, automotive semiconductors suppliers have an "obligation" to manufacture the component for at least 15 years, which makes managing the production output planning, spare parts etc. much easier. It's not like walking into your supermarket and finding out that your favorite brand of chocolate is no longer available. There are minor exceptions, and sudden changes in the demand might affect the immediate availability, but at the very least the part is almost guaranteed to be produced for 15 years with defined notice policies. Microcontrollers don't have a pin-compatible drop in replacement when they get discounted, but many different ICs do, like power supplies, transistors etc., so discounting them is not a big deal.

e.g.: https://www.nxp.com/products/product-information/nxp-product...

> Participating products are available for a minimum of 10 years from product launch (15 years from product launch for many products developed for the automotive, telecom and medical segments), and are supported by standard end-of-life notification policies.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#279

Post by will4274 » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:14 PM UTC

throwawaygh wrote: post #220

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #113

If you have a taste for irony, my company makes critical components for semiconductor equipment. If we can't ship, equipment companies can't ship new equipment. If they can't ship, semiconductor fabs can't increase capacity to meet the demand and solve the shortage. We went line down last week due to shortage of a chip for our component. In reality, the shortage is somewhat self-inflicted, like toilet paper a year ag…

A negative feedback loop in semiconductor supply seems like a situation where a government should just step in manage the market a bit.

Why? Is the government better at inventory and/or supply chain management than the current players in the market? My experience with COVID tests says no.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#280

Post by only_as_i_fall » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 2:14 PM UTC

Causality1 wrote: post #263

only_as_i_fall wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then what's the solution? Seems like the government is the only entity that can intervene if market forces are counter to supply chain resilience. This is partially the justification for agricultural subsidies in the US, so clearly there is precedent.

The nightmarish results of agricultural subsidies in the US is an excellent reason to not involve the government in the chip shortage.

Sure, but pontificating on government inefficiencies doesn't actually improve supply chain weakness either.