Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40% • Hacker News Board

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#181

Post by lotsofpulp » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:35 PM UTC

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #93

lotsofpulp wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have not even been out long enough to make that claim. Especially when comparing to Toyota.

>Especially when comparing to Toyota. Toyota been saying "don't worry guys, we fixed the rust issues, the new ones won't be rusting out" every year since 1985 and running a more or less rolling recall since the 00s. Or was that not the implication of your comparison? Teslas will last a long time because the most important indicator of vehicle reliability is one that they share more or less 1:1 with Toyota, customers…

> Or was that not the implication of your comparison?

The implication of my post is Toyota operates on a different scale than Tesla, and due to insufficient time having passed since the advent of Tesla, a claim cannot yet be made. I referenced Toyota because of its objectively highly ranked reliability based on resale price and famously low maintenance costs.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#182

Post by kube-system » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:35 PM UTC

raisedbyninjas wrote: post #144

detaro wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Without chips" is not really possible if you want to sell in first-world markets, way to many requirements (engine efficiency, safety features, ...) you would be hard-pressed to meet otherwise.

Backup cameras are required now.

Stability control has been mandatory in the US since 2012. I doubt there’s any remotely reasonable mechanical way to accomplish that.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#183

Post by ren_engineer » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:36 PM UTC

dcolkitt wrote: post #155

ren_engineer wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but stop and think for a second about all those short term profits Wall Street made by outsourcing all of our crucial manufacturing! Those congressional bribes don't pay themselves either! /s the worst part is our government is rewarding them for bad behavior, the article mentions the billion dollar chip subsidy program. So these companies made money outsourcing and will now make more by bringing it back. Instead the…

What short term profits? The car industry has among the lowest margins in the entire economy. Moreover the chips were never outsourced. Toyota never made its own chips, nor is it feasible to. You seem to have some sort of idealized view where a company internally manufactures everything it needs starting from raw materials. That’s not how it works, and that’s never how it worked.

"silicon valley" is the name because of all the chips that used to be made here, US used to lead the world in chip manufacturing

Toyota is just a symptom, every other car manufacturer and other industries are facing shortages as well. The US economy is now strangled because our supply chain got outsourced for "efficiency" that didn't account for potential disruptions

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#184

Post by tms2x2 » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:36 PM UTC

yalogin wrote: post #124

ipqk wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference being that lots of people want to keep those inflated housing prices high (nimbyism), whereas nearly everyone wants car prices to go back to normal.

Car prices won't go back to normal again though. They will come up clever financing schemes to make people pay but the prices will never be reduced.

When do we get 30 year loans to buy a car?

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#185

Post by hef19898 » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:36 PM UTC

nszceta wrote: post #107

minikites wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a misunderstanding of lean manufacturing. Lean is not about eliminating every stockpile, it's about thinking through your supply needs and only stockpiling what is necessary.

Were manufacturers stockpiling what was unnecessary before lean manufacturing? It's an absurd notion that anybody would stockpile things without consideration of inventory costs.

They did stockpile everything due to not having a plan or consider costs. That also had the strange side effect of constantly running out of parts. In some way, stuff worked by accidentally having the right stuff on hand at the right time in sufficient quantities. TPS is all about having a plan for this stuff.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#186

Post by dshoemaker » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:37 PM UTC

fires10 wrote: post #137

gonzo41 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Spend 5K on a really nice commuter electric bicycle. You'll be doing a solid for the Environment and you'll have an EV that makes you fitter.

My problem with 5K on an electric bike is the 50 mile commute one way to work in inclement weather.

I think the 50 mile one-way commute may be more of the problem here. I can't imagine traveling that far for work daily.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#187

Post by TeMPOraL » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:37 PM UTC

neals wrote: post #160

Come on, we all know this problem and we all know the solution. It's probably red-circuits that we are talking about here. We've all been there: you have your yellow belts full of green-circuits, but the red ones are just so much more complex. You need to set up the entire oil production chain for that, which is tedious and you probably rushed it just 'get a few red circuits so I can get my electric furnace'... I say…

I'd laugh but then I saw this comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28233436.

Yup, Factorio is a nice way to learn about supply chains.

Unfortunately, like almost all videogames, it assumes the whole system is run by a benevolent dictator (i.e. the player). In real life, most of the complexity and most of the waste comes from the system being built incrementally and operated by great many parties in a mix of cooperative and competitive relationships.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#188

Post by sct202 » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:37 PM UTC

nszceta wrote: post #107

minikites wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a misunderstanding of lean manufacturing. Lean is not about eliminating every stockpile, it's about thinking through your supply needs and only stockpiling what is necessary.

Were manufacturers stockpiling what was unnecessary before lean manufacturing? It's an absurd notion that anybody would stockpile things without consideration of inventory costs.

Sort of, it would come down to suppliers would historically only sell in large quantities to maximize their production efficiency, so the per unit production cost would be minimized by running a long production run. But this would potentially cause scrap if the final product did not sell well to expectations or if there was a design error, and then also increased working capital as the inventory levels would spike really high with infrequent supply from the vendor instead of being more constant with more frequent replenishment.

And then multiply across everyone in a supply chain for a single product having to deal with waiting to receive giant parts orders from their vendors before they could start their own giant order to supply their customers.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#189

Post by lotsofpulp » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:37 PM UTC

ghaff wrote: post #134

lotsofpulp wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Vehicle assumptions: 200 000 km lifetime mileage I was under the impression decent quality ICE vehicles are proven to last at least 320k km these days, and can easily last 15+ years. Have electric vehicles even been in use long enough to have sufficient data to compare?

"Easily" At least for a snowy area, those numbers are probably on the high side for reliable transportation but not 2x on the high side. Presumably, an EV would at least need a battery replacement well before that point.

I presume an EV would rust the same as an ICE due to road salt/ice melt.

Re: Chip shortage: Toyota to cut global production by 40%

#190

Post by technothrasher » Thu, Aug 19, 2021, 1:38 PM UTC

icegreentea2 wrote: post #50

The article (and others about this topic) indicate that the chip shortage isn't just a static. They all claim that chip and other supply chains (all based on South East Asian) are all under new pressure from delta strain spread. In fact, I wonder how much of this really is chip supply vs general supply. Most articles on this open with headlines about chip supply, but then contains quotes from Toyota about "supply" an…

I can't speak for Toyota, but for my own electronics manufacturing business its definitely a chip specific shortage. We don't really have huge problems getting most stuff, but digital ICs are more and more just simply unobtainium, with vague lead times of 1-2 years.