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South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

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Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#391

Post by refurb »

dragonwriter wrote: post #143
calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

> SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. Its kind of amazing how often people make judgements based on extrapolating demographic trends over much longer terms than there is any reason to think that they will hold, and then as soon as they fail turn around and do the same thing based on the new demograp…

Encouraging births isn't hard if a government decides its important.

Got an example of a successful encouragement of more births? Plenty of countries have tried.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#392

Post by ceejayoz »

refurb wrote: post #383
ceejayoz wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've seen an immense growth of productivity since the 1970s in the US, with stagnant wages. Perhaps it's time some of that goes into the issues you mentioned instead of wealthy pockets?

But with a declining population that’s declining GDP and with an aging population fewer working so less taxes. How does it work again?

Increased per-worker productivity, automation, and a realignment of goals from lining pockets to contributing to society.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#393

Post by fomine3 »

sandworm101 wrote: post #198
calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

Why is immigration the answer? All you need is workers, not immigrants. SK will probably do what the gulf states do. They will bring in foreign labor but with a clear separation between expat workers and potential "immigrants". These people will work finite contracts and then be literally sent home once the contract is over, mooting any concept of naturalization. Gulf states have done this relatively successfully for…

Japan already do that, with some bad reputation. https://www.jitco.or.jp/en/skill/

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#394

Post by rmbyrro »

nwienert wrote: post #8
calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

There’s no problem with low birth rates, this is a meme that is told by a few economists and yet a very slight depopulation is not only survivable but has upsides as well and so far both South Korea and Japan (for going on three decades) have maintained incredibly competitive across nearly all metrics, certainly far better off than the US in so many ways. I got in an extensive debate over this with statistics a few m…

Very interesting. I would like to listen more to this side of the debate. Everywhere I read is "demographic bomb" or "chaos", which seems to be a bubble. Would you be able to point some references for different arguments?

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#395

Post by fomine3 »

deeviant wrote: post #289
calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

> The core issue is that in most of the developed world, people do not have enough children The carrying capacity of the planet earth would like to have a talk with you. Continuing exponential population growth is obviously not a sustainable path forward. At some point, The world's economies are going to have to realign to a flat population and will have to adapt to the demographics there of. And if humanity does not…

declining isn't flat.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#396

Post by legolas2412 »

bialpio wrote: post #304
throw37388 wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please. We have 40% unemployment in Greece among young people. Housing is bloody expensive to build. It is not some goverment conspiracy! Did you actually try to immigrate into US? It is one of the worst countries at accepting immigration. Any normal country gives citizenship after 5 years of residency. In US it is like 30 years. And from far away it looks like your melting pot is broken. Too many groups fighting eac…

"30 years" is factually incorrect. The requirement is to be a permanent resident for 5 years (I can find links if needed). Source: I'm currently awaiting my naturalization appointment, if all goes well the total time from setting my foot in the US to becoming a citizen will be few months short of 9 years (~2.5 years on work visa & 5 years on green card + ~1.5 years wait for naturalization appointment).

That may be true for you or the Greek person here. Not for indians, Chinese, and Mexican.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#397

Post by Tsagadai »

calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

Automation? You don't necessarily need infinite population growth, Japan and other nations with low immigration and population growth may be able to make things better than it seems. Look at corporate tax bases and number of employees in major companies. You could totally run a high income economy with fewer people and better outcomes.

Population growth is not a requirement for economic growth, it is just one of the laziest ways to move the dial up.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#398

Post by onlyrealcuzzo »

refurb wrote: post #390
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are you so confident supply will every outstrip demand? The government could just mandate old buildings get destroyed and turned into parks. Remember, >55% of people are homeowners - they'll vote for anything that will protect the value of their homes - especially if non-homeowners pay for it entirely.

Whose building do they tear down and turn the value to $0? That makes no sense.

First they can update codes so that nothing can be rebuilt in a significant portion of the city. Then they can condemn buildings that aren't up-to code after a certain point. Then they can order the buildings torn down after a longer point. Then they can make people happy by turning abandoned buildings into parks.

Governments can always find ways to limit the supply of housing. They've been doing it fabulously in most of the West for the last 30 years.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#399

Post by fomine3 »

vjdingdong wrote: post #166

German unification was unthinkable until the soviet union collapsed. Maybe in 25 years, the 2 Koreas will be reunited, making Korea an even bigger power on the global stage.

What is special for South Korea is this. Possibly they can grow more but I wonder is it possible.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#400

Post by fomine3 »

devchix wrote: post #147

> South Korea’s rise to a middle power status comes without much historical baggage The kingdom of Joseon was annexed entirely by Japan in 1905. Modern Korea (nevermind the North/South prefix) would not exist had the US not enter WWII. The 35-years under Japan is a major flashpoint in Japan-Korea relation, it's a joke that the thing that unites North and South is their common hatred of Japan. I'm surprised there's no…

There are many news between Korea and Japan makes nationalism battle. Latest one makes Japanese rage is this. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/skorea-team-scr...

Their "screening" performing is unscientific (use air dosimeter for food, completely nonsense) so they are blamed because it seems to racism.

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