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South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

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Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#381

Post by int_19h »

calmd wrote: post #26
nwienert wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s no problem with low birth rates, this is a meme that is told by a few economists and yet a very slight depopulation is not only survivable but has upsides as well and so far both South Korea and Japan (for going on three decades) have maintained incredibly competitive across nearly all metrics, certainly far better off than the US in so many ways. I got in an extensive debate over this with statistics a few m…

Let's take that at face value. If shrinking populations are okay, what is the desired population level? Right now no country seems to be able to stop this decrease in the modern/developed world. We are just currently shrinking.

Should there necessarily be one? If you have fewer people, you also have fewer needs to satisfy. I suppose at some point it breaks down just because you need that many people to run some industries... but, given all the small countries out there doing fine, we're talking about several orders of magnitude here.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#382

Post by backprop1993 »

Dig1t wrote: post #372
calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

I recently had this thought and I'm wondering if any experts in biology/genetics can chime in and help me. Yes it seems to me that this will be a problem faced by the developed world for the short-medium term future. But does evolution also play a role here as well? By creating a shrinking population, does that not sort of "select" for people with a natural inclination to have more children? How strongly is the desir…

Conservatives and the more religious tend to have more kids. Non-religious, liberals have the least kids.

If there is any genetic contributions, then this will be under intense selection pressure.

Maybe this is why religion has survived so long? It tends to our reproduce the non-religious?

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#383

Post by refurb »

ceejayoz wrote: post #96
refurb wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you think pays for your healthcare, public pensions, infrastructure as your population ages out of the workforce? The Grenadier Guards?

We've seen an immense growth of productivity since the 1970s in the US, with stagnant wages. Perhaps it's time some of that goes into the issues you mentioned instead of wealthy pockets?

But with a declining population that’s declining GDP and with an aging population fewer working so less taxes.

How does it work again?

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#384

Post by int_19h »

robjan wrote: post #63
machiaweliczny wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Invent/make artificial womb. It's already feasible I think. Probably tons of money to be made. Why it's not a thing yet? Women have many options/entertainment now and don't want to go through pregnancy especially multiple times. This coupled with fact that you have only 10 years for childbearing (before 40) and you drastically cut carrier advancement when it just started explains a lot IMO. Requiring two people to su…

Who benefits from the artificial womb? The bearing of the child is much less of a disincentive than other factors like money, space and the ultra competitive school system we have in many Asian regions.

Women would benefit the most from artificial womb, given how strenuous bearing actually is, and all the health risks associated with it.

Lois Bujold explored this subject - and, specifically, the socioeconomic and cultural implications - thoroughly in her Vorkosigan series, although it is referred to as "uterine replicator" there. And she is a married woman with children, so it's not exactly an abstract subject matter for her.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#385

Post by kccqzy »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #51
calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

According to China, one solution is to kill after school for-profit education, which is crippling families due to unbounded competition.

Isn't the Chinese solution just to convert these for-profit education companies to non-profit education companies? That only hurts these companies and their shareholders. Parents who want their children to be competitive will continue to enroll their children in these after-school classes; now that they are non-profit perhaps they will be cheaper and parents can afford more classes!

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#386

Post by [deleted] »

csomar wrote: post #124
calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

Not really. Immigration has become an issue lately because a human (or a bare-human) is worth much less. 1.000 years ago a bare illiterate human had some considerable value. He could work in the field or he could fight. More humans, more food and production. More humans, more manpower to fight your enemies. Now a bare semi-educated human is a liability. Which is why most countries are refusing their entrance. Times h…

[deleted]

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#387

Post by fomine3 »

pitaj wrote: post #68
3pt14159 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One core issue is housing. And the core issue with housing is that prices are an arms race where everyone always wants more. Most people would have two or three kids if they felt like they could afford it. The second core issue is modern dating. That one I don't know how to fix, but the essential issue there is the dynamics of dating not requiring commitment coupled with financial security for women mean long term pa…

I think one of the biggest issues facing modern dating is the collapse of various socialization activities outside of work. Religion is on a decline so people don't meet at church. Hobby groups are all online now.

Simultaneously movements like MeToo is growing. People tend to avoid relationships with coworker a bit.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#388

Post by fomine3 »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #79
aikinai wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Neither of these apply to Japan, especially Japan decades ago when their birthrate fell to around the current rate. So that’s a pretty strong data point against these theories being key factors.

What? 1. Yes, obviously Japan housing prices have fallen from their insane 90s peak, but housing is still very expensive in Japan, and especially in urban areas where most Japanese (especially younger Japanese) live, space is famously at a premium. 2. I can barely count the number of times I've read articles on the reasons Japanese women don't want to get married. Unlike some Western nations, there is still a cultura…

> urban areas where most Japanese (especially younger Japanese) live

Not "most" people live in where housing price is rising. Foreigners tend to see only metropolis. There are many people living non rural (some are urban? but having car is good) area but affordable housing price.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#389

Post by [deleted] »

emil0r wrote: post #363
twelve40 wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Encouraging births isn't hard if a government decides its important Do you have any examples or even just any precedents how decades of declines and lowest birth rate in the world have been easily and successfully turned around, or this is all just hypothetically probably not hard?

Hungary. They started about ten years ago, and I believe they have managed to turn the trend.

[deleted]

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#390

Post by refurb »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #162
mathverse wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The average price of an apartment in Seoul is hitting $1M and the avg gdp per capita is around $38k.I am afraid a lot of that wealth is just real estate market speculation that might burst when the supply outstrips demand in 50 years.

Why are you so confident supply will every outstrip demand? The government could just mandate old buildings get destroyed and turned into parks. Remember, >55% of people are homeowners - they'll vote for anything that will protect the value of their homes - especially if non-homeowners pay for it entirely.

Whose building do they tear down and turn the value to $0? That makes no sense.
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