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South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

nationalinterest.org

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Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#91

Post by [deleted] »

Clewza313 wrote: post #28
nwienert wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s no problem with low birth rates, this is a meme that is told by a few economists and yet a very slight depopulation is not only survivable but has upsides as well and so far both South Korea and Japan (for going on three decades) have maintained incredibly competitive across nearly all metrics, certainly far better off than the US in so many ways. I got in an extensive debate over this with statistics a few m…

There is no problem with low birth rates in the long term. There are, however, massive problems during the many decades when the population pyramid is inverted and there are 4 or 5 retirees for every child, a ratio which Japan is about to hit and where South Korea will be in a couple of decades as well. As for why this is a problem, Japan's pension system is already insolvent and the country is starting to experience…

[deleted]

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#92

Post by thow-01187 »

nerdponx wrote: post #44
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> going to be one of the grand challenges of the 50 years I’m sceptical of this claim. Demand per capita grows unabated. Working lives are lengthening. A smaller population living well is economically indistinguishable, in the aggregate, from a large one living poorly. Maybe post-industrial civilisations settle into a lower-population steady state than ones requiring lots of unrefined labor. Yes, dependency ratios wi…

I am very much looking forward to a lower-birthrate future in which fewer people live better and more sustainably. The problem is in the short/medium term, figuring out how to pay for all these checks that politicians have been writing over the last 50 years. The problem isn't that "the young" have to support "the old", it's that a lot of promises were made on the assumption of indefinite growth.

Unfortunately, low fertility rate is not a one-time problem of boomer generation followed by a stable plateau. It leads to a perpetual spiral of gerontocracy, high dependency ratios, under-investments and general vitality being sapped out of the populace. It's no coincidence that Italy and Japan, once vigorous and creative, are not exactly bursting with enthusiasm in the past ~20-30 years

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#93

Post by eatonphil »

Danieru wrote: post #84
eatonphil wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes but compared to Japan? All of Asia started from scratch after WW2 and Korea was only 10 years behind Japan due to their war. But Tokyo infrastructure felt basically as old as NYC infrastructure to me (a totally qualitative impression). That said, Tokyo is massively cleaner and nicer than NYC even if some of the infrastructure seems old. There is no question it is nicer than NYC.

> But Tokyo infrastructure felt basically as old as NYC infrastructure to me In part because it is, most of Tokyo's major subway lines were built in the 1960s to 1970s. Ginza line was built before WW1 and was the first subway in Asia. The highways were all built soon after the war too. Thus part of the issue is age. Japan stabilized much sooner than Korea and built up faster. A bigger component though is Japan's pref…

Thanks for the perspective! I also don't mean to say one is better or worse. I think Tokyo, Seoul, and NYC are awesome. I've lived in NYC for the past 5 years and it's by far my favorite city in the US.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#94

Post by eranima »

dotcommand wrote: post #71

All of these kind of propaganda is the same. But nationalinterest is a propaganda outlet and the author "is a Member on the policy advisory boards of the Ministry of Unification, the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the National Assembly's Committee on Unification, Diplomacy, and Trade." Without reading the article - "Western" values/democracy, "liberal values" and lgbt. I guarantee it. First…

It's pretty disgusting that this crap is upvoted on Hacker News. This site's slow descent into reactionary politics is saddening

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#95

Post by chasd00 »

nerdponx wrote: post #54
calmd wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So urban cities are anti-child? Thus we will see cites change or depopulate? Does low fertility correlate with dense urban dwelling and sky high real-estate prices? I suspect it probably does, but I haven't seen any proof. Maybe this shift to remote-first work that happened over the last 18 months will help....

I am not a professional in this field at all, but my personal experience suggests that we need more smaller cities, more densely connected, or perhaps more and smaller "downtown" areas within a single city. Then people could have a bit more personal space (less geographic concentration reduces demand and price pressure in specific areas), while keeping density and interconnectedness high to support mass transit, walk…

You’re basically describing suburbs (not exurbs). Despite having everything you wish for suburbs are apparently the greatest threat to civilization since the trinity test.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#96

Post by ceejayoz »

refurb wrote: post #81
ceejayoz wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's another offshoot of the "growth at all costs!" mentality you see in Wall Street and governments.

What do you think pays for your healthcare, public pensions, infrastructure as your population ages out of the workforce? The Grenadier Guards?

We've seen an immense growth of productivity since the 1970s in the US, with stagnant wages. Perhaps it's time some of that goes into the issues you mentioned instead of wealthy pockets?

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#97

Post by michaelt »

100011 wrote: post #69
calmd wrote: post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

There is no reason to believe that 'immigration' can fix the native birth rates of South Koreans. This is an implicit assumption dreamt by the utterly deranged.

No, but if the problem is "we don't have enough carers to care for our elderly people" then importing carers via immigration is a quick fix.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#98

Post by kijin »

robjan wrote: post #62
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> going to be one of the grand challenges of the 50 years I’m sceptical of this claim. Demand per capita grows unabated. Working lives are lengthening. A smaller population living well is economically indistinguishable, in the aggregate, from a large one living poorly. Maybe post-industrial civilisations settle into a lower-population steady state than ones requiring lots of unrefined labor. Yes, dependency ratios wi…

One factor that needs to be considered is that in Korea, as in many Asian regions, people are expected to look after their parents when they get old. Society and social security have been build around this assumption.

That's been changing very rapidly in SK. Almost everyone in their 40s and 50s today have been putting money into public pension plans as well as a multitude of private options. When they retire, they won't be economically dependent on their children. Nor can they expect to, because their children's generation is by all means poorer than their own.

Whether those public funds and private options will be enough, of course, is a different question.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#99

Post by mathverse »

Korea is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hell_Joseon but the thing is koreans carry the spirit of Hell Joseon wherever they go and work with other koreans.

We (my wife is a korean) live in Europe and the same things that stressed my wife (and our korean friends) exist whenever you have to work with other koreans and their companies.It's not as bad as in Korea but it's still something that I can easily notice.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#100

Post by tsudonym »

eatonphil wrote: post #9
Razengan wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most modern how? Is everything just recently built or actually designed with modern principles in mind that will still feel relevant a decade down the road? I’m no researcher of any thing but the casual impression I’ve gotten from reading here and there over the years is that South Korea has plenty of problems, social and otherwise, and some of them pretty archaic and morbid (like idols collapsing on stage but nobody…

The trains running in the subways are much newer, cleaner, and wider than the ones in NYC or Tokyo or Paris or London (based on my own observation). They also continually build out entirely new rapid lines like the Bundang express line which takes you from a suburb of Seoul to the center of Gangnam (a major district) in 15 minutes. Their buildings are also mostly new. It seems like every decade or two Koreans demolis…

Japan has Apple Pay Suica that worked on my US iPhone, Korea required me to keep a physical T-money card at all times.

This may change like next year but Japan has had a 5 year head start. https://www.imore.com/apple-pay-coming-korea-part-k-new-deal...

Japan has updated their taxis since 2017 - roll out has been slow but I've rode in them multiple times as a tourist since then. https://global.toyota/en/jpntaxi/

I love Seoul for it's nightlife/cheaper restaurants, but I can't help but notice that it once tried to be an urban sprawling American city. It's just not as pedestrian friendly as Japanese cities, and I find myself taking more cabs than I would in Tokyo despite the Seoul metro being world class.

The cheonggyecheong stream used to be a disgusting urban highway and I'm sure there are plenty more. https://www.landscapeperformance.org/case-study-briefs/cheon...

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