Live data from Hacker News

South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

nationalinterest.org

31–40 of 444 posts

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Hell Joseon" is one I can think of. The idea is that it's too expensive and competitive to have kids and a successful career/life anymore. It seems (from my totally naive outsider view) that a lot of young Koreans feel very depressed about their options.

So, like the San Francisco Bay Area...

But for an entire country.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#32
post #24
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Tokyo largely feels like it was frozen in time. Economically, Japan has been in stagnation since the late 80s.

> stagnating That's a nice way to put it, it's been actually decreasing clearly over time since 1989, with ups and downs on the way: https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/japan.jpg

What is the y axis?

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#33
Funny how the article doesn’t mention that Korea is a divided country technically still at war.

Besides the development of modern South Korea out of a brutal military dictatorship is largely parallel to that of other Asian countries: Taiwan, Singapore, Japan and China.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#34
post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

It's going to be hard to convince couples living in 1 bedroom apartments to cram in 2 kids just so that the country can hit replacement level fertility rates. Large urban cities just don't seem built for families, especially with the way that larger spaces are priced.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#35
post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

This is very true as a Korean living outside of the country, It's happening slowly but the cultural resistance and all kind of shitstorm related low-birthrate/immigration is about to happen.

It's pretty ugly situation inside right now it seems like. Koreans still have the idea that it is a homogenous country and majority of korean is pretty extremely conservative about this new policy obviously, you could easily imagine it's like ticking bomb.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#36
post #34
post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

It's going to be hard to convince couples living in 1 bedroom apartments to cram in 2 kids just so that the country can hit replacement level fertility rates. Large urban cities just don't seem built for families, especially with the way that larger spaces are priced.

So urban cities are anti-child? Thus we will see cites change or depopulate?

Does low fertility correlate with dense urban dwelling and sky high real-estate prices? I suspect it probably does, but I haven't seen any proof.

Maybe this shift to remote-first work that happened over the last 18 months will help....

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#37
post #7

SK is committing demographic suicide though, so whatever you think of its success, it has a pretty fatal disease. It has the lowest birthrate in the world. This is going to cause significant economic problems quite soon, or they will have to open up massive immigration which will completely change the country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_birth_rate_in_South_Korea How does the developed world pull out of this ty…

As far as I can see the only problem is with how the pension systems are structured. A falling birth rate by itself doesn’t really mean that much. In fact there might be benefits for employment, like there was after the black death. But as it is our current economic system is based on growth and having more young people supporting the elderly. So it seems like if the trend continues we will have to restructure retirement benefits.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#38

My wife is South Korean so I'm biased. But I've been to Japan and South Korea and if you're looking for one of the most modern nations in the world, I strongly recommend you go to Korea. The only comparable country I've been to is the Netherlands or maybe Denmark. In contrast, the US and Japan seem to be somewhat falling apart with a peak in infrastructure and buildings a few decades ago. It's not that bad of course…

I felt the same way about Japan when I first visited it in the late 1990s. Japan has stagnated badly since then, and due to the demographic crunch, it's essentially certain that Seoul in 2040 will look like Tokyo in 2020. (Unless North Korea transforms it into a smoking crater in the ground, that is, since the entire city is within artillery range of the border.)

Also, in my experience, Koreans speak even less English than the Japanese do. Seoul is still OK, maybe Busan, but out in the sticks there's zero signage and very few speakers.

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#39
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having visited all the countries mentioned within the last few years - definitely agree. Seoul is an incredible, modern city, unlike any other. Tokyo largely feels like it was frozen in time. Parts of Amsterdam have that sort of feel, but it’s definitely more mixed. Not crumbling, but old and making do since it’s fine.

> Tokyo largely feels like it was frozen in time. Economically, Japan has been in stagnation since the late 80s.

Economically, Japan's GDP per capita (measured in 2010 US$) was 39,240 in 1991 and grew to 49,000 in 2019, a 25% increase. Yes, it's slower growth than before, but slow growth is still growth, not stagnation. For comparison, New Zealand was at 38,345 in 2019: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?end=2020... (also threw in the graph for South Korea)

Re: South Korea: The only middle power of its kind

#40
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s no problem with low birth rates, this is a meme that is told by a few economists and yet a very slight depopulation is not only survivable but has upsides as well and so far both South Korea and Japan (for going on three decades) have maintained incredibly competitive across nearly all metrics, certainly far better off than the US in so many ways. I got in an extensive debate over this with statistics a few m…

Can you link to your previous thread? I’m just curious if you considered military concerns since war is a young man’s game as they say.

I think robotized war changes the equation a bit here. At least with regards to non-adjacent conflicts. But for adjacent conflicts between non-superpowers, if one area is depopulated, it may be much easier to walk in and keep that territory.
Post reply on HN