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Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

arstechnica.com

271–280 of 315 posts

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah people go based on their guts drawing conclusions with this stuff, but the Volt has a 1.5L engine. Imagine a 2L coke bottle. It's contents would overflow if you could pour it into the engine. The Voltec system wasn't anywhere near larger than an equivalently practical BEV drivetrain. Just like BEVs are coming out without frunks, the Volt simply didn't prioritize interior space at the time. It was still a plenty…

1.5L engines are still pretty sizeable once you take into account the head, valve cover, oilpan. Then all the external parts needed to support combustion like water pump, radiator, coils and their wires and engine mounts. The total volume is a lot more than the 1.5L cylinders. Add in the fact Volt can directly power the wheels with the engine and now you are forced to put certain components in very specific, highly v…

> 1.5L engines are still pretty sizeable once you take into account the head, valve cover, oilpan. Then all the external parts needed to support combustion like water pump, radiator, coils and their wires and engine mounts. The total volume is a lot more than the 1.5L cylinders. Add in the fact Volt can directly power the wheels with the engine and now you are forced to put certain components in very specific, highly valuable places.

This entire paragraph is like saying an electric motor needs batteries and those batteries need cooling systems and those cooling systems need pumps and those pumps need power and...

No one claimed the entire drivetrain is 1.5L, but 1.5L gives you an idea of how relatively small the engine is. All the components you listed scale down in turn. Smaller engine running at a better point in its power band needs less cooling, less oil capacity, fewer oil changes, etc.

> The worst now outweighs (in this case literally as well as figuratively) the best.

I don't believe in this view point if we're being realistic about a low emission future.

We have an extensive gas infrastructure just sitting there today, meanwhile we have grids that can barely handle our current demands.

PHEVs are a chance for innovative solutions to that. Imagine power companies being able to direct people to use gas during (what will be increasingly frequent) extreme weather events then switch back.

And consider that PHEVs don't need to be Voltec-style all-in drivetrains. Conventional car designs can be converted to PHEVs like the old 3 series ActiveHybrid was.

And while people immediately recoil at the less than optimal results of not designing from the ground up around batteries and EV requirements, there's no changing the fact that designing new cars is expensive.

Affordable PHEVs based on current designs could open up EVs to more segments of the market than currently possible.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#272
post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that better? The Volt was able to use the ICE to improve peak output directly, with fewer drivetrain losses. e-power is a cost saving measure, not an advancement

A problem with most approaches to having the ICE drive the wheels to is that you don't run the ICE at it's most efficient setting. You gain in the drivetrain, but lose in the actual combustion. Whether you lose more in one than you gain in the other is an issue.

Except Voltec was also able to run the ICE at its most efficient setting by switching to Serial hybrid mode, where it was acting like the e-Power mode.

Voltec was using clutches to let you run like either the e-Power example or the Prius example on the fly, or even somewhere in between with the 2nd generation depending on power demands: https://gmauthority.com/blog/2015/02/secrets-of-the-2016-che...

CS3 is what you're describing when talking about the most efficient ICE operation

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Who has the mora authority to declare that Toyota should roll over and die to attain some goal that may or may not be achievable? False dilemma. Toyota could start making EVs instead. If they decide to (stupidly) refuse to do that, then their death would be the result of their own stubbornness, not a declared death sentence from someone else. And as far as who has the moral authority? Anyone who stands to face the…

lol no. business decisions are driven by economic incentives. I’m not saying it’s right or wrong but that’s the way the world works today. you have the authority to decide only to the point of electing politicians that push what you consider to be the right thing. This takes time. How would you feel if you would personally be targeted in an effort to reduce global warming? While at the same time other actors (that ba…

> you have the authority to decide only to the point of electing politicians that push what you consider to be the right thing. This takes time.

Funny, a few posts ago you were talking about moral authority. Oh how the goal posts move!

Also, as a society we’ve already decided to use our legal authority to incentivize EVs, that’s what Toyota is whining about! They have lost both the political and the social (“hearts and minds”) argument, and are trying to use bribes to get their way again.

> How would you feel if you would personally be targeted in an effort to reduce global warming?

Drawing a parallel between a person being “targeted” (loaded word) and a corporation making the wrong decisions is extremely weird.

Toyota was not targeted, they failed to take advantage of the incentives available to them. Ford, Hyundai, VW, Porsche, and Tesla all took advantage of the programs available to them, Toyota did not. That’s less “targeted” and more “made a mistake”.

> That EV you dream of as stopping global warming may overall be responsible for more CO2 emission that my “normal” car depending on how the power you use has been generated.

This is actually oil industry propaganda, good to see that it still has legs.

EPA estimates show that an EV is marginally cleaner than a gasoline car for a pure coal powered grid for total emissions. Of course you have to live in West Virginia before “100% coal power” is anywhere close to an accurate approximation of what your power grid looks like.

Also, it’s not a stretch to say that Toyota’s fuel cells are powered by oil. The primary source of commercial Hydrogen is from natural gas.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#274
post #21

The FUD accusations seem a bit hasty here. The linked Senate hearing doesn't seem to contain negative things about BEVs (it only criticizes the "narrow focus" on them), but instead opts for including hybrid and hydrogen, with the argument being that "recent data shows that plug-in hybrids can achieve nearly the same or better GHG reductions than BEVs depending on your daily driving patterns, the carbon in the electri…

It would be nice if Toyota actually had any interest in plug in hybrids. Their only one, the Prius Prime, is more expensive than its competitors and offers less than half their range. What's the point of getting a PHEV if I still spend half my commute running on gasoline?

If it's going to take 10 years to reach 50% BEV sales, why not focus on PHEV's first. 10x smaller battery still covers 80% of uses.

Or perhaps we are past that point already - I have no idea how that upgrade math checks out...

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not to exactly counter your point, but Toyota has been doing shady things for a while so I’m not sure if they can be given the benefit of doubt. The things include - going against those new California emissions standards when Trump rolled back emission limits, donating heavily to the politicians who wanted to overthrow the 2020 US elections, and having deals with Panasonic to block easy public access to batteries (be…

By "donating heavily" you mean $56k across dozens of officials.

Politicians are cheap.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#276
post #160
post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But... are we pretending here that the ICE and gas & all the plumbing etc don't weigh anything? It's not like PHEV have zero additional dead weight. A quick search says "Car engines can weigh up to 1,000 pounds" and "Tesla S has a massive battery weighing 1,200 lbs" - so, are your really saving that much weight with PHEVs?

You can size the PHEV range extender engine to be much closer to the steady state power requirement, and tune it towards such as well. The BMW i3 uses a literal scooter engine for the range extension.

The i3 can't do more than 40mph when using the scooter engine.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1.5L engines are still pretty sizeable once you take into account the head, valve cover, oilpan. Then all the external parts needed to support combustion like water pump, radiator, coils and their wires and engine mounts. The total volume is a lot more than the 1.5L cylinders. Add in the fact Volt can directly power the wheels with the engine and now you are forced to put certain components in very specific, highly v…

> 1.5L engines are still pretty sizeable once you take into account the head, valve cover, oilpan. Then all the external parts needed to support combustion like water pump, radiator, coils and their wires and engine mounts. The total volume is a lot more than the 1.5L cylinders. Add in the fact Volt can directly power the wheels with the engine and now you are forced to put certain components in very specific, highly…

> All the components you listed scale down in turn

But don't go away altogether, which is my point. There is a space cost to be paid in any PHEV that is significant, both in absolute volume terms as well as prime placement. The engine occupies extremely valuable real estate. In a pure EV that's space you can move the cab forward for more legroom or cargo space (or just make the car's overall footprint smaller).

> Affordable PHEVs based on current designs

What affordable PHEVs are there? They still command a price premium over the ICE version. Here in Canada Kia Niro hybrid is $27K, PHEV is 34.5K and BEV is $45K.

PHEVs also vary wildly in carbon reduction based on owner action. If the owner plugs in each day consistently they are great. Unfortunately, in the EU PHEVs have turned into tax shelters and studies have shown most drivers never plug them in, resulting in more emissions than if they had just bought the regular hybrid.

5 years ago PHEVs were a great solution while batteries were very expensive, but their window of value is rapidly closing and will be gone once batteries hit $100/kWh in likely mid 2023. I certainly wouldn't spend money on a new one now knowing that inflection point is coming so soon. Used Gen2 Volt is one of the great deals to be had in cars at the moment, but new PHEVs just don't make sense to me.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#278
post #211

Toyota should pull an Intel, and become the TSMC of automobiles. I've waggishly said I'd buy a Tesla made by Toyota. Surely there are other EV efforts that would benefit from Toyota's manufacturing prowess and capacity. -- Solid hydrogen fuels will be the next wave. Specifically non-gaseous, before anyone has a spaz attack. We know! Storage, transportation, distribution of H2 is not practical. Plasma Kinetics' has a…

> Surely there are other EV efforts that would benefit from Toyota's manufacturing prowess and capacity. They are not actually that exceptional anymore. At best they are marginally better. Tesla new architecture of structural cells in a pack connected to massive castings is far better then Toyota EV have. > Solid hydrogen fuels will be the next wave. I really don't think that will be the cast. > Imagine we hit "peak"…

A hydrogen fuel cell is the highest energy density battery possible. It doesn't how more advanced li-ion or a variant of it gets, hydrogen fuel cells will still have a higher energy density.

Furthermore, by the time you're talking about metal-air batteries you are basically build a fuel cell but with metals. Which is to say you're just building fuel cells that are fundamentally inferior than something that already exist.

We have basically created an inverted worldview. In reality, the li-ion battery is fundamentally inferior to hydrogen fuel cells, and any attempt to advance EV technology will inevitably produce a hydrogen fuel cell powered car.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lol no. business decisions are driven by economic incentives. I’m not saying it’s right or wrong but that’s the way the world works today. you have the authority to decide only to the point of electing politicians that push what you consider to be the right thing. This takes time. How would you feel if you would personally be targeted in an effort to reduce global warming? While at the same time other actors (that ba…

> you have the authority to decide only to the point of electing politicians that push what you consider to be the right thing. This takes time. Funny, a few posts ago you were talking about moral authority. Oh how the goal posts move! Also, as a society we’ve already decided to use our legal authority to incentivize EVs, that’s what Toyota is whining about! They have lost both the political and the social (“hearts a…

the question about the moral authority was a rhetorical one. Apologies if it came across as a genuine question.

I think you’re missing the point: Toyota made their decisions (which they probably had more data then you have for) and now they are making the most out of it, while also trying to extract the most value possible.

Does this, in retrospect, look like a mistake? Maybe, but most of the times decisions like this are made with imperfect information and there is a good dose of guessing involved.

Again, I’m not saying that what they did or are doing is good/bad right/wrong. I’m saying that it’s totally understandable and as long as this is within the law I don’t have a problem with it.

Also, research a bit the solid state battery work that Toyota has allegedly done. I’m not saying it’s going to pan out, but they definitely did not sit around twiddling their fingers and plotting on how to lobby more effectively.

Here: https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html

Also factor in the carbon emissions for manufacturing the battery: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/may/11/viral-imag...

And depending where your battery is produced you need to use your EV anywhere between 2-5 years before you can say that you emitted less than an equivalent gas powered car. This totally ignores PZEV cars btw. It also ignores the environmental impact of the battery after it no longer works.

Also, here is a bulletproof way of reducing carbon emissions and reducing impact on environment: buy less stuff. Including but not limited to buying a new car less often. I’m gonna bet you real money that the impact my SUV has on the environment if own it for 12 years instead of 5 is lower, per year than if I buy an EV every 5 years.

So I’m not sure that you can claim EVs are much much better, but if you have any credible sources I’m open to changing my mind.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would be nice if Toyota actually had any interest in plug in hybrids. Their only one, the Prius Prime, is more expensive than its competitors and offers less than half their range. What's the point of getting a PHEV if I still spend half my commute running on gasoline?

Exactly. GM showed with a Volt that a PHEV could be effectively a BEV 90% of the time and perform excellently even when falling back into ICE mode, but the Prime came out after the Volt and its drivetrain is inferior in every way to it. I understand the Prime is roomier and so on, but in terms of drivetrain it's woefully inferior. As a Volt and Mitsu Outlander PHEV owner I obviously have nothing against the PHEV conc…

I assume US drivers drives more miles than drivers in other country. Possibly such PHEV is mainly designed for outside US.
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