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Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

arstechnica.com

201–210 of 315 posts

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#201

Production of batteries is the constraint ... previously, currently, and in foreseeable future ( Further, given this capacity, the numbers work out such that we are, on the macro level, DRASTICALLY more fuel efficient and environmentally friendly by putting more hybrids and Plug-in Hybrids (which have fewer batteries) on the road than we are by reserving said batteries for fewer pure EVs. 2.5 Priuses are better than…

The 2nd Gen Chevy Volt was the Model 3 we deserved, but couldn't appreciate. 40-50 miles EV range meant that most people would have an EV most of the time, and use gas only on one off trips. And while people 10 years behind on ICE advancements would immediately start yelling about dragging around a dead weight ICE all day, modern ICEs are incredibly light, efficient, and reliable in the type of application the Volt h…

If you look at actual data you will see that people simply don't charge these cars as often and end up driving lots of miles with inefficient gas engines.

Your analysis basically assumes that people perfectly optimize their consumption, but actual usage data shows that they don't.

Also these cars driving experience simply can't compare to actual EV. Because of the high cost you simple and up with a cheap EV motor and a cheap gas motor.

There is a reason why GM didn't want to sell a million of them.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 2nd Gen Chevy Volt was the Model 3 we deserved, but couldn't appreciate. 40-50 miles EV range meant that most people would have an EV most of the time, and use gas only on one off trips. And while people 10 years behind on ICE advancements would immediately start yelling about dragging around a dead weight ICE all day, modern ICEs are incredibly light, efficient, and reliable in the type of application the Volt h…

Volt was a great car and 5 years ago it was a great solution. Now that long distance road trip charging is good enough I think the value of a PHEV is greatly diminished. They are an especially poor solution to the largest charging hurdle still remaining of apartment and street parkers since PHEVs must be plugged in nightly for carbon reduction ROI. The issue isn't so much weight as volume and packaging. Having 2 powe…

I also agree with this. I bought a Volt in 2011 because it was the best solution for 2011. In 2021, that gas generator that I hardly ever use unless the car tells me I have to because the fuel is getting stale feels like a huge weight and maintenance liability to carry around. The Volt seems a lot less like a great solution for 2021, especially as I've watched the rise in better cross-country charging networks and my friends are starting to buy Teslas after years of me as the early adopter telling them EVs were the present, not just the future. I'm convinced that my next car will be a full BEV and don't see any reason to look at any "hybrid" in today's present. (I'm just not yet sure which one yet, my Volt is doing great as the car I already have, and with the number of models expected to be announced in 2023-2025 am in something of an "I can afford to wait and see what happens next" mood.)

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's actually not true, you significantly underestimate the weight and space requirements of batteries necessary for long range EVs. There was just a comparison by heise.de of the Mercedes Eqa and GlA [1] and in comparison of space they write that the more EV the less space, i.e. ICE>PHEV>EV

Yeah people go based on their guts drawing conclusions with this stuff, but the Volt has a 1.5L engine. Imagine a 2L coke bottle. It's contents would overflow if you could pour it into the engine. The Voltec system wasn't anywhere near larger than an equivalently practical BEV drivetrain. Just like BEVs are coming out without frunks, the Volt simply didn't prioritize interior space at the time. It was still a plenty…

1.5L engines are still pretty sizeable once you take into account the head, valve cover, oilpan. Then all the external parts needed to support combustion like water pump, radiator, coils and their wires and engine mounts. The total volume is a lot more than the 1.5L cylinders. Add in the fact Volt can directly power the wheels with the engine and now you are forced to put certain components in very specific, highly valuable places.

BMW managed to hide their rex engine really well in i3 since it isn't connected to the wheels. That comes with it's own downsides as well, since you can slowly lose battery charge with the engine running while climbing steep hills in a rex i3.

Don't get me wrong, I think volt is one of the best cars ever made and at the time it came out it was the most cost effective way to cut your transportation carbon footprint while retaining a private car.

PHEVs are the best and worst of both worlds at the same time. The worst now outweighs (in this case literally as well as figuratively) the best. The downsides of pure EV are now at a point where they only truly impact edge case needs (apart from cost that needs to come way down, but PHEVs are very expensive too).

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#204
post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they write that the more EV the less space That's because the EQA is built on the same platform that GLA uses, which was designed for ICE vehicles.[1] The newer crop of electric vehicles that are built on dedicated platforms designed for EVs end up providing much more space than ICEs, mostly due to the ability to have the battery in a flat skateboard layout that is not possible with an ICE platform.[2] PHEVs end up…

There's no particular reason why PHEVs have to be worse than ICE for cargo space. The new Ford Maverick is designed as a hybrid first, for example. I know they don't have a PHEV version yet, but it's expected to come as one in a future model year.

The platform that the RAV4 uses (TNGA-K) was also designed with hybrid in mind, yet the compromises still had to be made for the larger battery that the PHEV version requires. The larger battery has to go somewhere, so I suspect the situation for the Ford Maverick won't be so different if they do come out with a PHEV version.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#205
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apart from the fact that all car makers had drive assist systems for years and this is by no means a Tesla invention, if safety measures really are the main factor for people to choosing a car, we should be seeing Volvos almost exclusively. But your comment which asserts that only Tesla does proper drive assist says everything. Somehow Tesla managed to convince everyone that they are the only innovators and everyone…

Interesting. What other car makers has self driving capabilities, runs on ev exceeding 250 mi on range, and has cameras around the car? Last I checked Volvos doesn’t even come close.

> What other car makers has self driving capabilities [...] and has cameras around the car?

Very nearly every luxury car on the market has that stuff and has had it for years.

Mercedes has had speed-adjusting cruise control since 1999, complete with auto-stopping since 2005, for example. Before Tesla ever even made a vehicle at all. Most other auto makers are just vastly more responsible in how they brand their self-driving capabilities than Tesla, but they pretty much all have them.

Tesla's "industry leading" innovations are really scoped to a few key things - the electric powertrain, massive in-car displays that replace switchgear (debatable if this is actually an innovation or just a cost-cutting measure, though), and OTAs.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#206
post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they write that the more EV the less space That's because the EQA is built on the same platform that GLA uses, which was designed for ICE vehicles.[1] The newer crop of electric vehicles that are built on dedicated platforms designed for EVs end up providing much more space than ICEs, mostly due to the ability to have the battery in a flat skateboard layout that is not possible with an ICE platform.[2] PHEVs end up…

There's no particular reason why PHEVs have to be worse than ICE for cargo space. The new Ford Maverick is designed as a hybrid first, for example. I know they don't have a PHEV version yet, but it's expected to come as one in a future model year.

There isn't a PHEV version of Maverick yet, but I'm sure there will be since the platform is shared with Ford Escape which has a PHEV. Notably, the PHEV Escape loses storage space compared to its hybrid and pure combustion siblings. PHEVs need batteries an order of magnitude bigger in size and capacity compared to regular hybrids and they need to go somewhere.

Using skateboard batteries for PHEV would help mitigate the packaging issues for PHEVs, but then you're still stuck hauling around a combustion engine and all the design compromises that entails like long, tall hoods filled with components.

Skateboard batteries mean deep, expensive changes to platforms, the kind automakers only do every decode or so. With the cost of batteries plummeting and emissions rules like EU7 coming, most companies have chosen to focus their development dollars on pure EVs and cheaply retrofit their PHEVs on to existing ICE platforms.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what does “being wrong” even mean. Everyone has an opinion and everyone has their own interests (including people in the gov). Assuming they are “wrong”, why would they suck it up? Why would anyone do something that goes directly against their self-interest?

> what does “being wrong” even mean. Developing products that are uncompetitive in the market.

are the products not competitive? last time I bought a car it was a Toyota. My next car will probably be a Toyota - probably a hybrid. As much as we like to pretend that the EV are the future and are happening right now, IMHO we’re not there quite yet.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that’s a bold prediction. i don’t think it’s going to happen. building a car is about more than just the engine. It’s about the supply chain, it’s about parts, it’s about service. Toyota and Honda have a lot more experience in this area than a new-ish car manufacturer. They also build reliable, great cars that I like owning and driving. I like how everyone is up in arms about Toyota doing something [that serves their…

So you’re ok with Toyota spreading FUD as long as it’s legal. Got it. As for Tesla’s government money, ev credits are available to all manufacturers, it’s not Tesla’s fault others can’t make compelling electric vehicles. All other government loans have been paid back in full. Maybe you should read more than just headlines

is it FUD though?

were do you draw the line between legal and illegal. right or wrong?

I think it’s absolutely expected for Toyota to attempt to protect their financial interests.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#209

CivBase had a good comment below about why this article may not be properly balanced, and I wanted to add this: I see two things that can stall EV growth: (1) Grid capacity. The US has been taking down nuclear power plants and replacing them with renewables has caused problems in both availability, cost and carbon impact. Ideally we would be able to build clean nuclear power as our grid demands growth from EVs, but i…

Grid capacity will keep up with steady growth in demand over the next decades. It's not a problem now it won't likely become a problem. There won't be an overnight spike in growth, just an steadily increasing pace in the roll out of charging infrastructure. Which is typically powered by renewables indeed. Because that's just the cheapest and fastest way to do it. Some grid companies will fail due to years of mismanagement and lack of investment. Some states like Texas might have to swallow their pride and actually connect their grid to the rest of the country (which BTW. would also enable them to export renewable power, of which they have plenty).

Generally, the grid will need to grow a little bit in capacity long term but actually not that much. We're talking 1.x not 2 x or more. And more like 1.2 x than 1.8x. The biggest issues are with the last mile rather than the amount of power. All solvable; just means a lot of work that people will pay for to get done. E.g. solar panels and EVs are a popular combo you see a lot in many suburbs. It makes economic sense to do it. Those EVs are not a burden on the grid and those households are probably net electricity suppliers even.

Having a few tens of GWH of driving batteries on the road could actually help soak up a lot of excess renewable power off peak. In many places this is already something that grid suppliers incentivize and a great easy way to balance the grid. In some cases there are even negative tariffs (i.e. you earn money by charging your car). A virtual power plant based on millions of EVs would dwarf any nuclear plant in terms of instantly available GW and would actually be able to provide power to the grid in case of spikes. One of Tesla's little side businesses that might actually work out. E.g. 1 KW times a million cars would be a about a GW of power. Realistically, you'd probably provide power at the same rate you charge. So something like 5 to 10 KW at home. Millions of cars plugged in when they are not driving (i.e. most of the time) would actually be a pretty awesome virtual power plant. The only snag might be that demand for that power might not be there most of the time because as argued capacity won't need to grow that much. Mostly it's just about stabilizing the grid.

Regarding your second point, recent hurricanes and other natural disasters have quite convincingly shown that gasoline infrastructure is actually not that robust and typically starts failing when these events happen. The added demand for things like generators typically does not help. Basically fuel stations need electricity and when the power goes, they also stop working even when they haven't run out yet. And that's aside from supply issues which typically also become a thing.

EVs are pretty easy to charge. You don't even need the grid for that. E.g. Solar panels on people's houses work fine when the grid fails for example. Many charging stations have solar panels or wind nearby (and batteries). Other EVs can be used for charging as well if the need arises. In emergencies you can even put up mobile charging points powered using batteries or fuel cells. And you can run your house off them as well during a power outage. As EVs become more popular, petrol infrastructure will go in decline and become less reliable. Some petrol stations will close, the remaining ones will sell less fuel. Etc. Especially, remote areas will likely to have more supply issues as that happens.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Volt was a great car and 5 years ago it was a great solution. Now that long distance road trip charging is good enough I think the value of a PHEV is greatly diminished. They are an especially poor solution to the largest charging hurdle still remaining of apartment and street parkers since PHEVs must be plugged in nightly for carbon reduction ROI. The issue isn't so much weight as volume and packaging. Having 2 powe…

The RAV4 Prime solves the interior issue by being a CUV and also putting the battery pack below the vehicle.

There is a price to be paid in space for the prime still. Rav4 ICE and hybrid have 37.5 cu ft / 1060 L behind the rear seats. Prime has 33.5 cu ft / 950 L.
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