Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen • Hacker News Board

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#51

Post by bluGill » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:22 PM UTC

modeless wrote: post #16

tharne wrote: post #5

Articles like this misunderstand both innovation and capitalism. Progress isn't typically made by some unusually smart person or enterprise gazing into the future and creating the perfect thing. It happens by lots of individuals and companies making bets and guesses, most of which are wrong, but some turn out the be right. That way the overall system can be brilliant regardless of whether or not the individual actors…

Hydrogen for cars was an obvious boondoggle for a decade or more. There's making guesses and then there's ignoring obvious trends. Toyota did the latter. Edit: And to prove that I thought it was obvious a decade ago, here's my opinion from a decade ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3070004

To engineers it was, but to politics things are more complex. If the politics of the world demand hydrogen it doesn't matter how stupid the idea is you have to do it. Politics can shut your company down completely overnight, bad engineering can do it, but only after decades of bad decisions.

Politically the powers were pushing hydrogen not long ago and nobody should be surprised if they do again.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#52

Post by NoblePublius » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:23 PM UTC

This is about distribution. Toyotas are sold through dealers. Dealers make little money on selling cars and lots of money fixing them. The Prius appeals to eco concious drivers (who don’t mind that their car drives like a dishwasher) but also appeals to dealers because it needs oil changes, radiator flushed, and frequent brake changes. Full EVs require almost no maintenance so Toyota dealers lack any incentive to market them. Hydrogen has always been a fake out; never remotely close to a viable alternative yet marketed as something amazing coming soon (so don’t buy a Tesla!).

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#53

Post by bluGill » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:24 PM UTC

MattRix wrote: post #26

tharne wrote: post #5

Articles like this misunderstand both innovation and capitalism. Progress isn't typically made by some unusually smart person or enterprise gazing into the future and creating the perfect thing. It happens by lots of individuals and companies making bets and guesses, most of which are wrong, but some turn out the be right. That way the overall system can be brilliant regardless of whether or not the individual actors…

Is this always true? The iPhone seems like a pretty clear argument to the contrary. As far as cars go, Tesla is a clear outlier pushing innovation. I mean sure you can argue that eventually the rest of the field will catch up, but there are many advantages to being a first mover.

There were smart phones before the iphone. They were badly done giving Apple opportunity to make them useful. (and the first iPhone was bad in a lot of ways that we only know from hindsight)

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#54

Post by chii » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:25 PM UTC

seph-reed wrote: post #42

eloff wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In general I agree with you. Simply taxing things with negative externalities enough to cover the true cost would simply and conclusively fix a lot of things we struggle with, faster and without relying on politicians. I think it's politically very unpopular, but the economic theory behind it is extremely sound.

I really hope liquid democracy can someday become a thing. The fact that an idea can be both good and unpopular is -- IMO -- the linchpin of almost every other problem we face.

> an idea can be both good and unpopular

communism is a good idea, but it's unpopular, for a reason i say.

The reason for the idea of taxing externalities being unpopular isn't really proven yet - after all, it hasn't been instated, but just spoken about, and the silent majority don't have an opinion!

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#55

Post by KineticLensman » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:26 PM UTC

ajmurmann wrote: post #28

MelvinButtsESQ wrote: post #19

Production of batteries is the constraint ... previously, currently, and in foreseeable future ( Further, given this capacity, the numbers work out such that we are, on the macro level, DRASTICALLY more fuel efficient and environmentally friendly by putting more hybrids and Plug-in Hybrids (which have fewer batteries) on the road than we are by reserving said batteries for fewer pure EVs. 2.5 Priuses are better than…

Why mandate how emissions are cut, instead of heavily taxing carbon emissions and having the market find the best solution?

> heavily taxing carbon emissions and having the market find the best solution?

Public perception may be one reason. If a carbon emissions tax directly leads to big increases in fuel costs, it can cause problems for drivers / vehicle users for whom fuel cost is a significant concern. The 2018 Gilet Jaune protests [0] in France were partly due to public dissatisfaction with fuel price rises. Regulatory instruments (such as fuel efficiency standards) are more opaque and may obfuscate the connection between between political decisions and the inevitable price rises.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_protests

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#56

Post by postingawayonhn » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:26 PM UTC

rantwasp wrote: post #18

emadabdulrahim wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why wouldn't companies pay the price for being wrong for far too long? Why don't they suck it up and let the government make decisions that would ease the transition to the future of EV?

what does “being wrong” even mean. Everyone has an opinion and everyone has their own interests (including people in the gov). Assuming they are “wrong”, why would they suck it up? Why would anyone do something that goes directly against their self-interest?

> what does “being wrong” even mean.

Developing products that are uncompetitive in the market.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#57

Post by gpt5 » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:26 PM UTC

stevev wrote: post #49

In addition to not betting on evs, Toyota along with many other car makers fail to understand the human desire for safety and convenience in their vehicles through the use of current camera technologies and computer applications. A typical Tesla vehicle has 8 cameras thus providing a 360 degree vision to help assist the car/driver in a few applications. Security, safety and convenience. A close second in terms of saf…

To continue the analogy with smart and dumb phones - the traditional car makers are struggling to match against the new threat from Tesla (who makes the “iphone”). Makes you wonder whether an Android equivalent OS will come out of Google or another tech company to compete back.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#58

Post by nojito » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:26 PM UTC

They didn’t bet wrong. Hydrogen will likely win out within the next 15 years.

The issue that Toyota has is with government forcing them to build cars they don’t want to.

They already build hybrids but for whatever reason hybrids don’t qualify under congress.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#59

Post by ubercore » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:27 PM UTC

stevev wrote: post #49

In addition to not betting on evs, Toyota along with many other car makers fail to understand the human desire for safety and convenience in their vehicles through the use of current camera technologies and computer applications. A typical Tesla vehicle has 8 cameras thus providing a 360 degree vision to help assist the car/driver in a few applications. Security, safety and convenience. A close second in terms of saf…

I've driven a new Rav4 (in the US) and a Corolla hybrid (in Norway) and they both had what you're describing. If anything, the Corolla's system was a little _too_ sensitive.

Re: Toyota has stepped up lobbying to preserve its investments in hybrids, hydrogen

#60

Post by bittercynic » Wed, Jul 28, 2021, 3:27 PM UTC

stevev wrote: post #49

In addition to not betting on evs, Toyota along with many other car makers fail to understand the human desire for safety and convenience in their vehicles through the use of current camera technologies and computer applications. A typical Tesla vehicle has 8 cameras thus providing a 360 degree vision to help assist the car/driver in a few applications. Security, safety and convenience. A close second in terms of saf…

>Sense of safety from the pcs is non-existent.

This feels like a feature to me. I believe making drivers feel safer causes them to drive more dangerously.