Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

Post by mrfusion » Tue, Jul 27, 2021, 8:50 PM UTC

montalbano wrote: post #10

xrd wrote: post #4

It's a great article. The real problem with evidence like this is that the "believer" must strive for 100% accuracy; that is really hard. The "skeptic" only needs to have one single piece of data turn out to be inaccurate, and then can doubt the entire thing; that is really easy. And, we can hold both things in our heads. I just went to the Newport Aquarium in Oregon. There is a terrific exhibit which shows a paleobo…

I think there's more to it than that. It reminds me of JBS Haldane's four stages of acceptance: 1. This is worthless nonsense 2. This is an interesting, but perverse, point of view. 3. This is true, but quite unimportant. 4. I always said so. I think many former 'skeptics' are now at stage 3.

Post by RaketenStadt » Tue, Jul 27, 2021, 8:50 PM UTC

quietbritishjim wrote: post #19

Devil's advocate response: As I read it, the values here are the date that cherry blossom are first witnessed in the year. There's probably a bell-shaped distribution of when blossom appears on a given tree i.e. there will be a very small number of trees that bloom really early. If you have more people looking for it, then there's a greater chance that someone will spot a really exceptionally early tree. So an altern…

Post by pavlov » Tue, Jul 27, 2021, 8:50 PM UTC

quietbritishjim wrote: post #19

Devil's advocate response: As I read it, the values here are the date that cherry blossom are first witnessed in the year. There's probably a bell-shaped distribution of when blossom appears on a given tree i.e. there will be a very small number of trees that bloom really early. If you have more people looking for it, then there's a greater chance that someone will spot a really exceptionally early tree. So an altern…

Post by mrfusion » Tue, Jul 27, 2021, 8:51 PM UTC

tigershark wrote: post #27

xrd wrote: post #4

It's a great article. The real problem with evidence like this is that the "believer" must strive for 100% accuracy; that is really hard. The "skeptic" only needs to have one single piece of data turn out to be inaccurate, and then can doubt the entire thing; that is really easy. And, we can hold both things in our heads. I just went to the Newport Aquarium in Oregon. There is a terrific exhibit which shows a paleobo…

Some people are literally willing to die rather than wear a mask or get a vaccine and do you think that this kind of people care about climate change or anything else?

Post by brokencode » Tue, Jul 27, 2021, 8:51 PM UTC

quietbritishjim wrote: post #19

Devil's advocate response: As I read it, the values here are the date that cherry blossom are first witnessed in the year. There's probably a bell-shaped distribution of when blossom appears on a given tree i.e. there will be a very small number of trees that bloom really early. If you have more people looking for it, then there's a greater chance that someone will spot a really exceptionally early tree. So an altern…