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Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

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Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#21

Post by tzs »

It looks like from around 1700-1900 the earliest peak bloom day got later, while the latest peak bloom day stayed about the same.

After that, the latest peak bloom day started getting earlier and the earliest peak bloom day also started getting earlier.

So right now peak blooms can occur about as earlier as their historically could, but seem much more unlikely to occur as late as they historically did. In other words, they now occur in a range that starts about the same as it did historically but ends quite a bit earlier.

So what happened around 1900?

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#22

Post by [deleted] »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #3
Comevius wrote: post #2

"It's not projected data, it's actual data. It's not measured, it's observed." It's certainly elegant proof. If those climate change deniers could read they would be very upset.

I’m a climate change denier. A lot of us keep our opinions to ourselves, mostly because we know we don’t know enough about it. Articles like these help change my mind. Well, partly. The question I keep coming to is “how do you know any of this matters, for a definition of ‘matter’ that includes widespread upheaval of human societies?” But at this point I go meh, not worth the risk. Point is, condescending remarks onl…

[deleted]

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#24

Post by warent »

monktastic1 wrote: post #5
sillysaurusx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m a climate change denier. A lot of us keep our opinions to ourselves, mostly because we know we don’t know enough about it. Articles like these help change my mind. Well, partly. The question I keep coming to is “how do you know any of this matters, for a definition of ‘matter’ that includes widespread upheaval of human societies?” But at this point I go meh, not worth the risk. Point is, condescending remarks onl…

I'm not sure I understand. Why deny something that you claim not to know enough about?

Isn't that the default stance in philosophy? Assume something is false until evidence proven true. You cannot begin with the assumption that something is true, otherwise we're back to the mystical dark ages of magic monsters and alchemy

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#25

Post by clircle »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #3
Comevius wrote: post #2

"It's not projected data, it's actual data. It's not measured, it's observed." It's certainly elegant proof. If those climate change deniers could read they would be very upset.

I’m a climate change denier. A lot of us keep our opinions to ourselves, mostly because we know we don’t know enough about it. Articles like these help change my mind. Well, partly. The question I keep coming to is “how do you know any of this matters, for a definition of ‘matter’ that includes widespread upheaval of human societies?” But at this point I go meh, not worth the risk. Point is, condescending remarks onl…

I'm not a climate change denier, but I'm not sure if climate change is man-made. I believe the climate invariable changes, my issue is that we cannot determine the fraction of this variation that is due to human interference.

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#26

Post by mikaeluman »

Certainly evidence of climate change. The man-made part is of course not demonstrated in this piece though.

I rather don’t like the condescending attitude but will at least applaud the use of the word “skeptic” rather than “denier”; the latter being a more religious phrasing.

Disclaimer: I do think man-made climate change is happening and something very much worth addressing. The interesting part is simply what to do about it; on which people will disagree vehemently.

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#27

Post by tigershark »

xrd wrote: post #4

It's a great article. The real problem with evidence like this is that the "believer" must strive for 100% accuracy; that is really hard. The "skeptic" only needs to have one single piece of data turn out to be inaccurate, and then can doubt the entire thing; that is really easy. And, we can hold both things in our heads. I just went to the Newport Aquarium in Oregon. There is a terrific exhibit which shows a paleobo…

Some people are literally willing to die rather than wear a mask or get a vaccine and do you think that this kind of people care about climate change or anything else?

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#28

Post by RaketenStadt »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #17
monktastic1 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure I understand. Why deny something that you claim not to know enough about?

Heh. Well, since you asked... There's a distressing pattern: the idea that "man made climate change exists, therefore disaster." The "disaster" part is the part I've never truly been able to convince myself of. I don't deny it -- you're right, it's more along the lines of agnosticism. But I think it's really easy to convince yourself of doom. However, striving to be something resembling a scientist, I recognize that…

> I’m a climate change denier

> I don't deny it

So, you're not a climate change denier

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#29

Post by genericuser314 »

quietbritishjim wrote: post #19

Devil's advocate response: As I read it, the values here are the date that cherry blossom are first witnessed in the year. There's probably a bell-shaped distribution of when blossom appears on a given tree i.e. there will be a very small number of trees that bloom really early. If you have more people looking for it, then there's a greater chance that someone will spot a really exceptionally early tree. So an altern…

I don't think its "first witnessed", I think its 80% of blossoms are open.

https://twitter.com/sayakasofiamori/status/13739565776071311...

Re: Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets

#30

Post by mrfusion »

xrd wrote: post #4

It's a great article. The real problem with evidence like this is that the "believer" must strive for 100% accuracy; that is really hard. The "skeptic" only needs to have one single piece of data turn out to be inaccurate, and then can doubt the entire thing; that is really easy. And, we can hold both things in our heads. I just went to the Newport Aquarium in Oregon. There is a terrific exhibit which shows a paleobo…

I worship climate change too but palms In Alaska actually sounds nice.
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