Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators • Hacker News Board

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#61

Post by slothtrop » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 5:09 PM UTC

sxg wrote: post #47

slothtrop wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Birth rates are at their lowest throughout the developed world. India isn't the developed world. According to the UN, the world population is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100. Despite the stagnant fertility rate, growth rate is still targeted in most countries at approx 3-4%, through immigration. I mention this because everyone has a higher environmental footprint…

> India isn't the developed world. Yes, I'm aware, which is why I included that the developing world's birth rate is also dropping, although starting from a higher baseline level. > When scaling up, everything destroys the environment. Yeah, I agree, but things don't tend to scale up linearly, and I think you're missing the cause/effect interplay between population growth and resource consumption. Yes, as populations…

> limits on production of those same resources (eg food, energy) will in turn impose limits on population growth.

Historically greater food and resource output could help you grow fast (particularly by intention), but for a long while now population growth is negatively correlated with production on the global scale. The 1st world is high production, the 3rd world is not, and all the while hunger and lack of infrastructure seems to be no deterrent to the fertility rate. Child mortality rate might also compel some to have more children.

If one were interested in stops on population growth, access to contraceptives and eliminating poverty would probably be the most powerful way short of a State policy to punish excess births.

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#62

Post by dirtyid » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 5:55 PM UTC

swiley wrote: post #4

But we can't have the alternative that's worked everywhere that's tried it: educating Women. If that happened the pervasive corruption might be questioned. Instead we'll just kill the extra children.

>educating Women

Too hard within context of current Indian institutional capabilities, and more importantly requires generations to pay off / take too long. Necessary long term goal, but doesn't avert 400M+ projected Indian births in an already overpopulated country that needs to maintain above 8% growth just to keep up with employment. Which they're not meeting. For reference height of PRC / China export manufacturing only supported ~400M jobs. Automation + geopolitics means India completely missed out prospect of concentrating global manufacturing. There's not much on the horizon but continuing with massive subsistent agriculture with massive idle / under / unemployment. High TFR + poverty + inadequate growth = generating more net unemployment and instability every year, which cause more governance problems = overpopulation spiral.

Family planning is a viable stop gab that's relatively enforceable, immediately. It's a band aid solution paid in later demographic bomb that may or may not be averted / mitigated with development or technology. Status quo is geometric poverty population growth that's going to hit carrying capacity of geography. 100s of millions of excessed impoverished people that will drag development. For context PRC one child policy averted 300M+ births, even now 600M of country is barely middle income. There are just too many people. Sure a demographic bomb coming but it's better to manage a demographic bomb with high wealth per capita. World needs heterodox policies to address end of population driven social and economic structures. India needs to prevent 100s millions more births ASAP and hope some of these policies work.

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#63

Post by dirtyid » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 6:17 PM UTC

someperson wrote: post #5

India's fertility rate has already fell to about 2.2 children per woman (in 2021). That's already replacement rate. India is one of the few countries with a favorable demographic future right now. The United States and France are also doing ok too (with immigration). But most of Europe and Asia (especially China, Singapore, South Korea and Japan) are facing huge problems: a halving of the population from its peak. An…

>India is one of the few countries with a favorable demographic future right now.

India is not meeting / maintaining 8% growth to just keep up with employment. Current TFR is going to generate 100s of millions of excessive idle / impoverished workers that's going to drag on development. It's a demographic curse not dividend, which are already milked in their most productive states from memory. And they will not be able to develop via manufacturing because automation/geopolitics means world will not concentrate global production in one country again. Their future looks like 1.7B with major proportions trapped in subsistent agriculture and informal economy.

In China even after family planning averted 300M births, country still has 600M barely above middle income and significant proportions in agriculture + informal system, but at least much of country has increasing per capita wealth to better weather demographic bomb and problems being addressed. Difference is most of India doesn't look like it will develop beyond relying on population pyramid to manage growth, which will eventually hit carrying capacity constraints. By 2100, PRC is going to be a somewhat wealthy per capita country with ~900M population & 80%+ urbanization rate. A big middle-income Japan. India is going to be a poor per capita country with 1.7B population, with significant numbers trapped in rural areas. A bigger but still poor India.

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#64

Post by zepto » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 6:48 PM UTC

shoto_io wrote: post #31

zepto wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> increasing productivity Is it, in any real terms? > and improved health care Doesn’t this make the problem worse? I.e. longer lifespan for the aging population, and even more demand for healthcare professionals from the limited set of younger workers.

I'm talking about "health span" and not "life span".

They aren’t independent. Also you said ‘healthcare’. If healthcare produces health span, then it is still being consumed.

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#65

Post by sxg » Sun, Jul 11, 2021, 7:04 PM UTC

slothtrop wrote: post #61

sxg wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> India isn't the developed world. Yes, I'm aware, which is why I included that the developing world's birth rate is also dropping, although starting from a higher baseline level. > When scaling up, everything destroys the environment. Yeah, I agree, but things don't tend to scale up linearly, and I think you're missing the cause/effect interplay between population growth and resource consumption. Yes, as populations…

> limits on production of those same resources (eg food, energy) will in turn impose limits on population growth. Historically greater food and resource output could help you grow fast (particularly by intention), but for a long while now population growth is negatively correlated with production on the global scale. The 1st world is high production, the 3rd world is not, and all the while hunger and lack of infrastr…

I see what you're saying, namely that there's a disconnect between food/resource production and population growth in the 1st and 3rd worlds. But I would point out that there are many, many more factors involved beyond just food and other basic resources that influence population growth. Like you mentioned, child mortality rates are one, but cost of education and college are another. The Economist recently had an article about how many families don't have a 4th child because the majority of cars can only seat 2 adults and 3 kids.

I still don't see overpopulation as a serious future issue because much of the world is showing the same steady decline in birth rates to near or below population replacement levels.

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#66

Post by known » Mon, Jul 12, 2021, 10:57 AM UTC

“Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason” --Mark Twain (b. 1835)

Population is a boon to Chinese regime and bane to Modi regime in India;

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#67

Post by slothtrop » Mon, Jul 12, 2021, 2:05 PM UTC

sxg wrote: post #65

slothtrop wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> limits on production of those same resources (eg food, energy) will in turn impose limits on population growth. Historically greater food and resource output could help you grow fast (particularly by intention), but for a long while now population growth is negatively correlated with production on the global scale. The 1st world is high production, the 3rd world is not, and all the while hunger and lack of infrastr…

I see what you're saying, namely that there's a disconnect between food/resource production and population growth in the 1st and 3rd worlds. But I would point out that there are many, many more factors involved beyond just food and other basic resources that influence population growth. Like you mentioned, child mortality rates are one, but cost of education and college are another. The Economist recently had an arti…

It is definitely leveling off. It's just that, without intervention, it will take a long time to do so, 100+ years. The question then is whether increased demands poses a threat in the interim - maybe not. Emissions rate could probably be cut drastically through innovation in the next decade, as climate change is concerned, though it's so far gone we might require geoengineering at this point. That research is still in it's infancy, and as it stands, the options are mediocre.

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#68

Post by watwut » Mon, Jul 12, 2021, 7:54 PM UTC

creamytaco wrote: post #56

watwut wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Educated women who have larger control of their lives tend to choose to have less children. That is how it works. Stopping to educate women and limiting our ability to make own decisions would probably made women have less children. It would however be unethical, cruel and oppressive.

Your argument holds no water and is exposing you as indulging in binary thinking. Educating women is one possible way to deal with the issue, that doesn't mean it is the _only_ way. Like someone else said, it will take at least a generation for effects to kick in. On the other hand, the policies that the article refers to can be effective immediately (and also applied together with other measures such as educating wo…

Actually, effect is faster then generation, because effect starts way sooner then when they have PhD.

Also, there is no binary thinking involved in what I wrote. This effect is real and repeated itself multiple times.

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#69

Post by david38 » Tue, Jul 13, 2021, 12:42 AM UTC

shoto_io wrote: post #14

someperson wrote: post #5

India's fertility rate has already fell to about 2.2 children per woman (in 2021). That's already replacement rate. India is one of the few countries with a favorable demographic future right now. The United States and France are also doing ok too (with immigration). But most of Europe and Asia (especially China, Singapore, South Korea and Japan) are facing huge problems: a halving of the population from its peak. An…

I don't understand why a population decrease should be resulting in "huge problems". I am sure it's possible to maintain or even increase happiness and relative wealth while growing smaller. For earth in total, it would be great to see a smaller number of humans.

It’s not. It’s just stupid ideas about never ending unchecked growth.

As the population declines, and it should, technology and policy will change to make things work. Better use of automation, better end of life care policies, managing death instead of “doing everything you can”, etc.

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#70

Post by naruvimama » Wed, Jul 14, 2021, 2:30 PM UTC

swiley wrote: post #4

But we can't have the alternative that's worked everywhere that's tried it: educating Women. If that happened the pervasive corruption might be questioned. Instead we'll just kill the extra children.

Education does not necessarily work on certain religious groups.