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Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

economictimes.indiatimes.com

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Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#21

Post by inglor_cz »

comodore_ wrote: post #16
shoto_io wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand why a population decrease should be resulting in "huge problems". I am sure it's possible to maintain or even increase happiness and relative wealth while growing smaller. For earth in total, it would be great to see a smaller number of humans.

who pays for all the old people?

Worse, who takes care of all the old people.

So far, we have increased our lifespans up to 85 or even 90 years, but our healthspans are significantly shorter and those last 10-15 years are spent in state of partial or complete dependency on others.

Unless we can do a lot more in the longevity field and stretch healthspan of old people significantly, we won't be able to meet the total demand for workforce in care.

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#22

Post by inglor_cz »

shoto_io wrote: post #18
comodore_ wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who pays for all the old people?

Isn't it a classic rate equation? If all young people die immediately, sure, we're in deep shit. But with increasing productivity and improved health care a graceful decrease should be possible.

Increasing productivity in geriatric care basically means robots taking care of people.

I am not saying that it is impossible, but it is definitely hard. Which means psychologically hard, too. Without contact with living people, you are likely to go mad in your bed, even if your physiological needs are taken care of.

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#23

Post by durovo »

kevinmchugh wrote: post #17
reidjs wrote: post #2

I can't read the article, so I'm just replying to the concept. I don't see a problem with this at all. Overpopulation may be the most important issue of our lifetime. I'm not a fan of excessive government control, but incentivizing low birthrates is our only hope of saving the environment.

Climate change and population growth are separate issues.

Increase in population definitely accelerates climate change. If the world's population doubled to around 16 billion, would humanity's carbon footprint remain the same?

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#24

Post by slothtrop »

sxg wrote: post #9
reidjs wrote: post #2

I can't read the article, so I'm just replying to the concept. I don't see a problem with this at all. Overpopulation may be the most important issue of our lifetime. I'm not a fan of excessive government control, but incentivizing low birthrates is our only hope of saving the environment.

Hard disagree. Birth rates are at their lowest throughout the developed world. In some cases, it’s below the replacement level. The developing world’s birth rate is also dropping as those regions become more developed (China for example, which recently switched to incentivizing additional children).

> Birth rates are at their lowest throughout the developed world.

India isn't the developed world.

According to the UN, the world population is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100.

Despite the stagnant fertility rate, growth rate is still targeted in most countries at approx 3-4%, through immigration. I mention this because everyone has a higher environmental footprint in the developed world, through consumption.

Everyone wants a home, vehicle, gadgets, good food. If not everyone in the world can enjoy 1st world experiences without encroaching on the environment and destroying it at a catastrophic rate, then we're overpopulated. Meat consumption is already under scrutiny for land-use (particularly in Brazil) as though the problem isn't the growing demand for it, but the meat itself. When scaling up, everything destroys the environment.

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#25

Post by vsskanth »

swiley wrote: post #4

But we can't have the alternative that's worked everywhere that's tried it: educating Women. If that happened the pervasive corruption might be questioned. Instead we'll just kill the extra children.

Strongly Agree. Population control is trying to affect second order outcomes and has shown to create demographic time bombs.

The only intervention supported by data is providing and mandating access to good education, jobs, birth control and enforcing legal rights to women. Nothing else even comes close.

This policy is being proposed in UP, which performs very poorly on women's equality compared to higher GDP states.

All they have to look at the birth rates in southern states with high education outcomes for women - Kerala,Karnataka and TN

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#26

Post by prvc »

kevinmchugh wrote: post #17
reidjs wrote: post #2

I can't read the article, so I'm just replying to the concept. I don't see a problem with this at all. Overpopulation may be the most important issue of our lifetime. I'm not a fan of excessive government control, but incentivizing low birthrates is our only hope of saving the environment.

Climate change and population growth are separate issues.

>Climate change and population growth are separate issues.

Sperate, but related: the latter contributes to the former.

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#27

Post by inglor_cz »

durovo wrote: post #19
someperson wrote: post #5

India's fertility rate has already fell to about 2.2 children per woman (in 2021). That's already replacement rate. India is one of the few countries with a favorable demographic future right now. The United States and France are also doing ok too (with immigration). But most of Europe and Asia (especially China, Singapore, South Korea and Japan) are facing huge problems: a halving of the population from its peak. An…

The fertility rate of the state in question might be more relevant here which seems to be about 3.0 [0]. These conversations miss the fact that the actual distribution of the people in the country is very relevant. If you have ever been to UP, you would know how it is overflowing with people. 0. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_union_ter...

High TFR + high density of population + not enough resources = a recipe for future disaster. Kudos to the Uttar Pradesh authorities for tackling the problem.

Yes, Alaska or Estonia could live with a TFR of 3.0 for a while. Uttar Pradesh not so much. 200 million people crowded in a state smaller than Germany is already on the edge.

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#28

Post by outlace »

reidjs wrote: post #2

I can't read the article, so I'm just replying to the concept. I don't see a problem with this at all. Overpopulation may be the most important issue of our lifetime. I'm not a fan of excessive government control, but incentivizing low birthrates is our only hope of saving the environment.

I used to share the concern with overpopulation, but birth rates are often below replacement in developed countries. I now worry more about the long-term survival of humanity than I do about overpopulation. I expect all countries to eventually become developed and follow the same trend, and eventually the population just naturally dwindles because we become a post-survivalist society and don't care about propagating our genes anymore, and we just care about optimizing individual happiness.

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#29

Post by zepto »

shoto_io wrote: post #18
comodore_ wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who pays for all the old people?

Isn't it a classic rate equation? If all young people die immediately, sure, we're in deep shit. But with increasing productivity and improved health care a graceful decrease should be possible.

> increasing productivity

Is it, in any real terms?

> and improved health care

Doesn’t this make the problem worse? I.e. longer lifespan for the aging population, and even more demand for healthcare professionals from the limited set of younger workers.

Re: Indian state proposes two-child policy, stringent measures for violators

#30

Post by revnode »

galuggus wrote: post #20
swiley wrote: post #4

But we can't have the alternative that's worked everywhere that's tried it: educating Women. If that happened the pervasive corruption might be questioned. Instead we'll just kill the extra children.

Why would that cause corruption to be questioned?

A substantial aspect of education is learning about how others live and alternative forms of organization. If you don't know any better, the status quo seems like the only outcome possible. If you know others are living better lives and corruption is optional, questions start being asked.
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