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California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

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Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#301

Post by senormenor »

xyzzyz wrote: post #252
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not really weird that immigrants start in California and then wind up elsewhere. That’s normal, and they are quickly replaced with new immigrants anyways. California (and originally New York) as waypoints in immigration before dispersal elsewhere is a very old concept. > That’s really what illustrates people voting with their feet. If you Google “California population”, you get a graph where Texas and California…

It is in fact weird. The entire question is, why don’t these immigrants stay in California? What do the find so repellent, or what do they find so attractive elsewhere that is not available in California?

If you believe conservative media and "anti-woke" Twitter, California is an unliveable wasteland where you can't walk two paces without stepping over homeless people, discarded needles and human feces, where crime (violent and non-violent) is skyrocketing, where people don't feel safe in their own homes, and where the only response by "progressive" politicians is to double down on their same bad policies that created the mess in the first place.

Is any of that true? I have no idea; I've never been to California. But it's what a large percentage of the country believes about the Golden State.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#302

Post by sidlls »

Talanes wrote: post #186
acenes wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, but "back of the napkin" calculations are quick order-of-magnitude type estimates based on reasonable guesses or first principles, not by looking up numbers on the web (napkin not big enough to write out URLs; maybe use envelope)

Are you really trying to gatekeep "back of the napkin?"

How is it gatekeeping? We don't call estimates sourced with references "back of the napkin" calculations because they aren't.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#303

Post by xadhominemx »

tomc1985 wrote: post #60
xadhominemx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.

Years ago (2007ish) I worked for a startup owned by a guy that relocated to Reno and had a huge property in some mountaintop country club on the edge of the city line. As we stood in the snow, looking out over Reno (where they had none) he was telling me all about how the money he saved on taxes in California 100% financed the property we were standing on. It was a very nice house... guessing about 4000 or 5000 sqft.…

Incline Village aka Income Village, NV has been a popular destination for tax avoidance for decades. It’s true that people move states (in reality or on paper) to decrease their tax burdens. What isn’t true is that this sort of behavior has recently accelerated and turned into something that could be characterized as an exodus.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#304

Post by SamoyedFurFluff »

fridif wrote: post #271
dragonwriter wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

California's larger number of domestic outmigrants tend to be lower income than the smaller number of domestic inmigrants. The people coming in are more likely to be software engineers, the people going out more likely to be the warehouse workers (or, even more likely, retirees.)

Tell me the number and types of software engineers who have left, and I will measure the loss

That seems like moving the goalposts.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#305

Post by sidlls »

xwdv wrote: post #119
thebradbain wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Anti-tech sentiment peaked in the early 2010s. Tech buses stopped being vandalized and the “die techie scum” thing mostly went away after 2015. While we're comparing anecdotal evidence, I live in Los Angeles and count among my peers many who work in the Hollywood/Media industry. I can assure you the general sentiment among them toward Big Tech is overwhelmingly negative. I work in tech (albeit not a large company)…

A lot of this negative big tech sentiment isn’t backed by anything rational, it’s the same middle school or high school mentality of beating up nerds.

No, it's not. First, most "big tech" aren't nerds in the sense you mean, and they act more like the "cool kids" bullies in those movies than nerds. Second, the negative sentiment has more to do with wealth inequality and all that brings than any such petty rivalry as you describe.

Also to be quite honest software engineers aren't as smart or nerdy as they think they are in general. Very arrogant and egotistical, though, for sure.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#306

Post by bin_bash »

senormenor wrote: post #301
xyzzyz wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is in fact weird. The entire question is, why don’t these immigrants stay in California? What do the find so repellent, or what do they find so attractive elsewhere that is not available in California?

If you believe conservative media and "anti-woke" Twitter, California is an unliveable wasteland where you can't walk two paces without stepping over homeless people, discarded needles and human feces, where crime (violent and non-violent) is skyrocketing, where people don't feel safe in their own homes, and where the only response by "progressive" politicians is to double down on their same bad policies that created…

I live in Oakland and I find all of that true. My family and I very much want to leave as soon as possible. (I’m a non-immigrant Democrat for what it’s worth, but not very progressive.)

We’re staying in-state though—Oakland is far from typical.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#307

Post by lr4444lr »

thetrb wrote: post #138
rayiner wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m skeptical about counting international immigrants here. International immigration is a function of a very specific thing, in California’s case a measure of H1-B sponsor companies. If Indians come to California so they can get an H-1B from Facebook, but their kids them move to Tennessee because of poor quality of life in California, then that’s consistent with the “exodus” theory in my opinion. I’m an immigrant fr…

Moving from NYC to Long Island is slightly different than moving from California to Tennessee, so I don't really understand your point.

Other than the raw comparative distance, how is it different?

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#308

Post by refurb »

astrange wrote: post #159
tomc1985 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Years ago (2007ish) I worked for a startup owned by a guy that relocated to Reno and had a huge property in some mountaintop country club on the edge of the city line. As we stood in the snow, looking out over Reno (where they had none) he was telling me all about how the money he saved on taxes in California 100% financed the property we were standing on. It was a very nice house... guessing about 4000 or 5000 sqft.…

> He was trying to impress a woman that he was talking with, and I distinctly remember him saying he'd be eaten alive if he started the company in California, and that he was thankful for the tax situation in Nevada. He doesn't know that because he didn't try it. There's news articles every year that California "has the worst business environment in the US" or stuff like that, but they're all based on surveys and wha…

No way tax burden is less for the middle class.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#309

Post by refurb »

peytn wrote: post #299
kelnos wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's actually much smaller than I expected for SF. 1.39% isn't really a lot at all; even in absolute number terms it's something on the order of 10,000 people.

The few people I know who’ve moved still “live” there to avoid taking a hit on compensation at review time and just changed their mailing address to a friend’s place or something.

Yup. That data suggesting they moved elsewhere in CA is based on USPS change of address requests. Friends I know who left the state (or country) used a friends kr family’s address.
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