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California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

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Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#181

Post by chrisco255 »

wolverine876 wrote: post #118
chrisco255 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So is anywhere but California, apparently.

Apparently not. For example, of people leaving San Francisco: 72% moved elsewhere in the Bay area ~20% moved elsewhere in California The next most popular destination was Washington state, the majority going to Seattle. Source: https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/article/Only-one-U-S-city-...

Lateral moves to another part of town or metro area are hardly worth noting, except that given the time period you're talking about, many people moved from the city to the suburbs during the height of Covid. It's a nice narrative to paint, but barring some turnaround for SF the writing is on the wall. The emigration was already hiking before the pandemic.

"between 2019 and 2020, the number of households leaving skyrocketed by more than 77%, or roughly 35,000 households — from 45,263 in 2019 to 80,371 in 2020."

"But while many city residents left for the outer Bay Area counties, the region also lost population during the pandemic, according to the postal service data. In March to November of 2019, nearly 61,000 more change of address requests were made out of the nine counties than into them. In the same period in 2020, 111,350 more requests were made out of the nine counties than into them."

CA's major cities are losing pop and CA lost a House seat.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#182

Post by fridif »

deep-root wrote: post #44

A "back of the napkin" calculation seems to indicate there is no mass exodus. On mobile, but here is the typical annual CA pop change stats for the past decade, give or take: --Incoming-- - 400K domestic immigrants[1] - 180-200K international immigrants[2] - 450K births[4] Subtotal: ~1.1M --Outgoing-- - 600K domestic emigrants[1] - 250K deaths[4] - ?? intl emigrants (anyone know?) Subtotal: ~850K Typical annual net c…

The influx of 100k people working warehouse jobs does not outweigh the 1,000 software engineers who left and will never return

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#183

Post by panarky »

xadhominemx wrote: post #12
Retric wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

California has much lower housing costs outside of major cities. It’s exodus is seen as unusual simply because it’s a a populous state, but rate wise it’s hardly unusual. IMO, people leaving California in large numbers is also a function of how many people move into the state because people who moved long distances once are more likely to move again. As 2020 was a serious outlier I am sticking with U.S. states by net…

Suburban and housing costs in California are very high by national standards. Is your argument that the people who are moving out of California overwhelmingly non-native Californians?

High prices = strong demand

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#185

Post by TillE »

astrange wrote: post #161
cmckn wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That Bezos quote is pretty dodgy, but to address your point: Ask anyone in Denver and they'll tell you there's a mass exodus out of Chicago. Or ask anyone in Miami and they'll tell you there's a mass exodus out of Philly. People move around. I think this is a similar phenomenon to buying a car and "seeing that car everywhere all of a sudden." It's all about perspective. In this sense, data is always better than anecd…

Crime anecdotes are famously totally wrong, people always say crime has gone up recently even though it's collapsed in most US cities even since 2000 or 2010. What this actually means is that people are watching too much TV.

It's genuinely terrifying to realize just how much power mass media holds over shaping public opinion. Without even lying usually, simply choosing what to report and who to give a platform.

American media isn't even particularly bad in this respect, it looks generally fair and reasonable compared to eg, the British media.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#186

Post by Talanes »

acenes wrote: post #137
deep-root wrote: post #44

A "back of the napkin" calculation seems to indicate there is no mass exodus. On mobile, but here is the typical annual CA pop change stats for the past decade, give or take: --Incoming-- - 400K domestic immigrants[1] - 180-200K international immigrants[2] - 450K births[4] Subtotal: ~1.1M --Outgoing-- - 600K domestic emigrants[1] - 250K deaths[4] - ?? intl emigrants (anyone know?) Subtotal: ~850K Typical annual net c…

Sorry, but "back of the napkin" calculations are quick order-of-magnitude type estimates based on reasonable guesses or first principles, not by looking up numbers on the web (napkin not big enough to write out URLs; maybe use envelope)

Are you really trying to gatekeep "back of the napkin?"

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#187

Post by thayne »

xadhominemx wrote: post #3
handmodel wrote: post #2

- The article says that "millionaire flight" out of California is a myth. This is mostly true and a good point. - However, the article/research looks at outflow and doesn't find a trend but this is bad methodology. It looks like they are not factoring in the fact that less people are moving into California then had been previously even if the rate moving out isn't too different. It almost feels intentional given how…

The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.

I think part of the source of that myth is that middle-class Californians look wealthy to the middle class citizens of the more affordable regions they are moving to. Because while the cost of living is lower, salaries and wages generally are as well.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#188

Post by strikhedonia »

handmodel wrote: post #155
dragonwriter wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And almost by definition, if you move to California from somewhere else then "home" would be lower cost of living. Only exceptions are if you grew up in NYC, Boston, DC or a few other cities. Lots of California is cheaper than a lot more than just the few most expensive cities. California is not just the central cities of the Bag Area. Also, on a state level, HI has a higher cost of living than CA.

California is the third highest cost of living state: https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/most-expens... Everyone knows that California is not just LA and SF. But also Florida isn't just Tampa/Miami and Arizona isn't just Phoenix. The big cities in CA are more expensive than the big cities in other states. The rural areas in CA are more expensive than the rural areas in other states. Pointing out that th…

Your link doesn’t support your argument. California’s COL index will be dominated by the fact that it’s one of the nations most urban states, with two of the largest and wealthiest metro areas.

Indeed, my experience is that there are parts of CA that aren’t significantly more expensive than my Midwestern home state.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#190

Post by deep-root »

fridif wrote: post #182
deep-root wrote: post #44

A "back of the napkin" calculation seems to indicate there is no mass exodus. On mobile, but here is the typical annual CA pop change stats for the past decade, give or take: --Incoming-- - 400K domestic immigrants[1] - 180-200K international immigrants[2] - 450K births[4] Subtotal: ~1.1M --Outgoing-- - 600K domestic emigrants[1] - 250K deaths[4] - ?? intl emigrants (anyone know?) Subtotal: ~850K Typical annual net c…

The influx of 100k people working warehouse jobs does not outweigh the 1,000 software engineers who left and will never return

It's the opposite, California is the new brain-drainer like US post WWII. https://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-brain-gain-continues/
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