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California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

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Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#291

Post by jjeaff »

throwawayboise wrote: post #214
deep-root wrote: post #44

A "back of the napkin" calculation seems to indicate there is no mass exodus. On mobile, but here is the typical annual CA pop change stats for the past decade, give or take: --Incoming-- - 400K domestic immigrants[1] - 180-200K international immigrants[2] - 450K births[4] Subtotal: ~1.1M --Outgoing-- - 600K domestic emigrants[1] - 250K deaths[4] - ?? intl emigrants (anyone know?) Subtotal: ~850K Typical annual net c…

> 50-80K excess deaths COVID was part of this, but Boomers are also reaching dying age.

Excess deaths takes projected deaths into account. That's mostly covid. Or covid adjacent.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#292

Post by peytn »

toast0 wrote: post #149
doitLP wrote: post #144

Well as someone moving out of California I’m having a hard time finding a moving truck, even 3 months out. uHaul and Ryder are having a hard time fulfilling demand because so many trucks are leaving California and so few are coming back.

There's also a lot of demand for moving trucks being used locally as delivery vehicles, since there's a surge in deliveries. Usually not the big trucks, but when a delivery service rents a small truck or van, someone who was going to rent that to move has to rent something bigger. It's riskier, but you might see if you can buy a used moving truck and plan to sell it at the destination. I've seen a few reports of peop…

The pod-style boxes had an even greater rate imbalance in my experience a few months ago. In fact, I couldn’t even get a pod from PODS and had to use a different company.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#293

Post by jjeaff »

robomartin wrote: post #248
deep-root wrote: post #44

A "back of the napkin" calculation seems to indicate there is no mass exodus. On mobile, but here is the typical annual CA pop change stats for the past decade, give or take: --Incoming-- - 400K domestic immigrants[1] - 180-200K international immigrants[2] - 450K births[4] Subtotal: ~1.1M --Outgoing-- - 600K domestic emigrants[1] - 250K deaths[4] - ?? intl emigrants (anyone know?) Subtotal: ~850K Typical annual net c…

I don't know about these numbers. What I can tell you is that the business exodus from CA is very real. This means less jobs, or, what could be worse, lower paying jobs. I know of entire companies who picked-up and left for places like Arizona and Texas. I personally cannot wait to be able to do the same. I want nothing whatsoever to do with California in terms of business. After decades of living here I am just sick…

The business property tax is for property over $100k. I don't think many offices have that much furniture. Also, it does not appear to be true that this tax is assessed on businesses outside of la county. Just how exactly are the figuring out who is driving "through" the county? They have to send you the assessment forms.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#294

Post by peytn »

diamond559 wrote: post #251
colllectorof wrote: post #135

Gaslighers gonna gaslight. You don't need a Ph.D. to see this "research" was guided by motivated reasoning rather than genuine desire to figure out what is going on.

What makes you say that, did you read the paper and find flaws in their methodology? Or does it disagree with your preconceived narrative and dismiss it out of hand?

I read the UC San Diego summary. As far as I can tell, their data is from an online poll. It’s well-known that online poll respondents are generally more interested in politics than average. It stands to reason that those considering leaving California may be much less interested in politics and thus undersampled. I didn’t see this potential sampling issue addressed in their write-up, though I’m a layman unfamiliar with the polling methodology they’ve used.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#295

Post by JohnWhigham »

okareaman wrote: post #48

As a native Californian, I'd be fine with more people moving out of California, especially the coastal areas. The surf spots are overcrowded compared to the days when I had the waves to myself. Then there's this: California man blasts Texas 'dystopia' in Op-Ed after moving to Austin https://www.mysanantonio.com/lifestyle/travel-outdoors/artic...

Alder wrote that Texas was a [...] "monoculture that doesn't seem to be aware of it's own blandness."

Absolutely rich coming from a Californian.

Also I still can't tell if this article is satire or not.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#296

Post by bsagdiyev »

kevinpet wrote: post #285

"In fact, only 23% of California voters said they were seriously considering leaving the state, which is lower than the 24% who said the same in a 2019 survey conducted by UC Berkeley." That's because we already left, so we're no longer in their survey population. When I moved out of California, a uhaul was ten times as expensive going from SF to Phoenix as vice versa. When a survey or research project contradicts ma…

Yeah, when we left earlier this year the U-Haul prices were insane. We got lucky and managed a trailer cross country for $400 but the price jumped to almost $1000 if we added another day since we would lose the locked in price we originally got.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#297

Post by jjeaff »

Spooky23 wrote: post #216
maxk42 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Excellent information! So what this tells me is based on migration alone, (since births / deaths are not indicative of intent to migrate) California has been flat at best, not counting an unknown number of international emigrants - so that number is likely lower. Given that those net immigration numbers have been dropping faster in the past couple years, we may indeed be seeing the tide turning on California immigrat…

If you’re not growing you’re dying. The thing about states like New York and California is the the fringes rot while everything is great in the core. The areas that are doing gangbuster business may be healthy at the moment, but other areas are dying. I don’t know California well, but I know New York, and that upstate and western NY have been in free fall for years with some exceptions. Industry left in the 80s… citi…

All the tech giants have had locations in lots of other cities for many years now. Yet it hasn't seemed to affect their main California locations as of yet.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#298

Post by bsagdiyev »

treeman79 wrote: post #152

https://www.bluemountaineagle.com/life/national/mass-exodus-... How about the cost of moving vans? Last I heard it was much cheaper to take trucks to California then the other way.

As of January it still was. We locked in $400 for a trailer from San Diego -> Raleigh last year, but on our trip across I tried to add another day and the price was around $1000 because we would lose the guaranteed price I locked in last year before we left. As a lifelong Californian it really sucked making that choice, but the state is getting too expensive and a little over the top politically for me. Maybe we’ll return home one day…

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#299

Post by peytn »

kelnos wrote: post #220
wolverine876 wrote: post #66

From another source, about people leaving San Francisco: * "Among the 50 most populous U.S. cities, 15 shrunk during the pandemic" Top three: 1) Baltimore (-1.42%), 2) San Francisco (-1.39%), 3) San Jose (-1.3%) * Of people leaving SF: 72% moved elsewhere in the Bay area, ~20% moved elsewhere in California. The next most popular destination was Washington state, the majority going to Seattle. Source: https://www.sfch…

That's actually much smaller than I expected for SF. 1.39% isn't really a lot at all; even in absolute number terms it's something on the order of 10,000 people.

The few people I know who’ve moved still “live” there to avoid taking a hit on compensation at review time and just changed their mailing address to a friend’s place or something.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#300

Post by jjeaff »

vel0city wrote: post #246
rpearl wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This very much disagrees with you: https://www.aaup.org/sites/default/files/AAUP-2021-SurveyApp... A sampling of average overall salaries for professors: - UC Berkeley (ie bay area): $214,300 - UCLA: $234,200 - UT San Antonio: $130,900 - UT Dallas: $169,500 So an average Berkeley professor makes more than half again as much as an average UT San Antonio professor. And 25% more than UT Dallas.

You're forgetting income taxes and then add CoL on top of that. Sure you're making gross more but that $214k turns to ~$140k after taxes while that Texas $169k turns into ~$126k. So closer to a difference of about $14k. Then think that housing is way cheaper, gas is almost half the price, electricity can easily be had for 7c/kWh in DFW, etc. I just filled up this afternoon for $2.49/gal, what does gas cost out there…

Many CA universities have housing programs for professors to offset the higher cost of living that i don't think show up in those salary averages.
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