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California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

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Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#151

Post by toast0 »

okareaman wrote: post #89
KingMachiavelli wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The California 'exodus' is more of a mass immigration into certain desirable areas in the US. These cities & even states have populations smaller than individual suburbs of LA so Californians tend to stand out; especially when they complain and want to change the places they move to.

A while ago I moved to Medford Oregon for a couple of years and the hostility towards Californians was real. Someone I know moved to Southern Oregon recently and it's a little better, primarily because there are a lot of Californians there enjoying great property values and no sales tax.

Where I moved in the Pacific North West, the most hostility comes from the people who moved here 15-20 years ago, often from California too. Although, some of them are pretty chill. Most of the people with deep roots are pretty chill too, but I have run into a amall handful of extra grumpy people.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#153

Post by alanbernstein »

deaddodo wrote: post #26
alanbernstein wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

California is losing a house seat, while Texas and Colorado are gaining one (or two for Texas). While the census doesn't account for the difference between growth rate and migration, it seems pretty suggestive to me. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/04/2020-census-d...

You know, you gain seats by gaining population. Just because one state is growing faster doesn't mean another is losing people. Those are hardly dependent nor even expected (California gained it's massive population despite an overall high growth rate of the rest of the nation).

"Losing people" (total population dropping) isn't quite the same thing as "exodus" (large number of people leaving) though.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#154

Post by mypalmike »

spoonjim wrote: post #86
hpoe wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just my little data point but I moved into a sleepy little ID town that has a lot of people that have moved here from SoCal, and of the 5 people I asked "what brought all the way up to Idaho from California?" 4 of them commented on how expensive California was and the high cost of living. 3 of them also stated that they didn't like how things were happening in Cali. Again small anecdotal data point but take it for wh…

If people move out of a place because of high housing costs it necessarily means that others were highly desirous of that place.

"Nobody goes there any more. It's too crowded."

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#155

Post by handmodel »

dragonwriter wrote: post #148
handmodel wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To clarify I am saying that some people on here are saying that California is anti-business/anti-tech and that is why people are moving out. I am saying the vast majority of people moving out of CA are just doing so because general cost of living isn't a great deal. And almost by definition, if you move to California from somewhere else then "home" would be lower cost of living. Only exceptions are if you grew up in…

> And almost by definition, if you move to California from somewhere else then "home" would be lower cost of living. Only exceptions are if you grew up in NYC, Boston, DC or a few other cities. Lots of California is cheaper than a lot more than just the few most expensive cities. California is not just the central cities of the Bag Area. Also, on a state level, HI has a higher cost of living than CA.

California is the third highest cost of living state:

https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/most-expens...

Everyone knows that California is not just LA and SF. But also Florida isn't just Tampa/Miami and Arizona isn't just Phoenix.

The big cities in CA are more expensive than the big cities in other states. The rural areas in CA are more expensive than the rural areas in other states.

Pointing out that the rural areas in CA are cheaper than the cities in other states is not compelling.

And for the record, Hawaii is seeing net out-migration too. At least its excuse for low cost of living is the fact that its an island that has to ship everything in.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#156

Post by trainsplanes »

tomc1985 wrote: post #62
xadhominemx wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Suburban and housing costs in California are very high by national standards. Is your argument that the people who are moving out of California overwhelmingly non-native Californians?

Once you are out of the main coastal communities housing prices drop dramatically. I have friends in Eureka renting a gigantic house for like $1200/mo, and I saw studio apartments in the city center in the order of $750/mo. The SoCal equivalents would be $3500/mo-plus and $1500/mo-plus, respectively.

Eureka is a moderate sized town by most standards, and you can get cheaper places in similarly sized towns or larger small cities throughout the US. Probably get apartments much bigger than a studio, too.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#157

Post by gkop »

ardit33 wrote: post #139
michaelmrose wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people on the bottom 50% aren't taking international flights and proximity to international airport is honestly a worthless metric for 90% of the population. In fact 500,000 of them without health insurance are looking encouragingly at a possible medicaid expansion 11 years after the ACA passed.

it is a proxy for jobs and a large labour market and choice, even for poor people. Eureka doesn't have one, yet it commands prices of a mid sized metro. CA is overpriced by a long shot

I don’t have a horse in this race, but must point out that Eureka sits directly on the Pacific Coast of the mainland United States, which adds significant desirability to a town that is admittedly best known for having a lot of tweakers.

(In fact Eureka is fairly centrally located on the coast, which is kind of cool, too. I’d want to live in Arcata instead because less tweakers. But Arcata isn’t directly on the coast, so you can’t really compare them)

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#158

Post by random314 »

rayiner wrote: post #126
deep-root wrote: post #44

A "back of the napkin" calculation seems to indicate there is no mass exodus. On mobile, but here is the typical annual CA pop change stats for the past decade, give or take: --Incoming-- - 400K domestic immigrants[1] - 180-200K international immigrants[2] - 450K births[4] Subtotal: ~1.1M --Outgoing-- - 600K domestic emigrants[1] - 250K deaths[4] - ?? intl emigrants (anyone know?) Subtotal: ~850K Typical annual net c…

I’m skeptical about counting international immigrants here. International immigration is a function of a very specific thing, in California’s case a measure of H1-B sponsor companies. If Indians come to California so they can get an H-1B from Facebook, but their kids them move to Tennessee because of poor quality of life in California, then that’s consistent with the “exodus” theory in my opinion. I’m an immigrant fr…

This unfairly discounts the immigrants that California attracts , while counting folks who leave. To be consistent we must look at population growth as a whole, possibly split by age group. California will typically attract younger folks looking for work.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#159

Post by astrange »

tomc1985 wrote: post #60
xadhominemx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.

Years ago (2007ish) I worked for a startup owned by a guy that relocated to Reno and had a huge property in some mountaintop country club on the edge of the city line. As we stood in the snow, looking out over Reno (where they had none) he was telling me all about how the money he saved on taxes in California 100% financed the property we were standing on. It was a very nice house... guessing about 4000 or 5000 sqft.…

> He was trying to impress a woman that he was talking with, and I distinctly remember him saying he'd be eaten alive if he started the company in California, and that he was thankful for the tax situation in Nevada.

He doesn't know that because he didn't try it.

There's news articles every year that California "has the worst business environment in the US" or stuff like that, but they're all based on surveys and what they actually mean is business owners are whining in case they get an income tax cut. CA's economy is, of course, doing great, and for the middle class the tax burden is less than Texas if you remember to count taxes other than income tax.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#160

Post by astrange »

spoonjim wrote: post #86
hpoe wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just my little data point but I moved into a sleepy little ID town that has a lot of people that have moved here from SoCal, and of the 5 people I asked "what brought all the way up to Idaho from California?" 4 of them commented on how expensive California was and the high cost of living. 3 of them also stated that they didn't like how things were happening in Cali. Again small anecdotal data point but take it for wh…

If people move out of a place because of high housing costs it necessarily means that others were highly desirous of that place.

Those people could just be their own parents, still living in CA and blocking new housing for their children to live in.
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