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California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

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Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#81

Post by wolverine876 »

tomc1985 wrote: post #76
wolverine876 wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a myth because you heard two people talk about it? It's not entirely a myth, I think we can all agree - of the tens of millions of people in CA, some think that way. But CA has long invested large amounts in its people (one reason there is U Cal Berkley, which is one reason for the Bay Area's success), which of course requires taxes, and it long has protected its citizens, including the wealthy ones - someth…

My point is that it is happening, if my anecdata is to be believed, and that sampling theory suggests it might be (or have been) a trend. As a CA native I love my state, but it is also important to understand other perspectives.

> sampling theory suggests it might be (or have been) a trend

How does sampling theory support that your two experiences might be a trend? I got two flat tires in the last ten years. Does sampling theory say it's a trend? Statewide? Worldwide?

> it is also important to understand other perspectives

Absolutely, but let's remember that much of the narrative has been pushed by a political faction for years.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#82

Post by CameronNemo »

quesera wrote: post #75
tomc1985 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once you are out of the main coastal communities housing prices drop dramatically. I have friends in Eureka renting a gigantic house for like $1200/mo, and I saw studio apartments in the city center in the order of $750/mo. The SoCal equivalents would be $3500/mo-plus and $1500/mo-plus, respectively.

Right but this is just by virtue of CA being a big, long, state where the northern reaches are far away from the economically active parts. Eureka is charming enough, but it has no specific attractive force over any other (very) small coastal city where the next-larger city is many hours' drive away. Compare to Crescent City, or southern coastal Oregon. So yes, you're still in California up there, and housing is less…

Bakersfield at least has agriculture and oil extraction industries. But the heat and the air quality make it an unattractive place to live.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#83

Post by kasey_junk »

fumar wrote: post #51
kasey_junk wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you a recent transplant due to a life event like college graduation or the like? If so the correlative nature of your peers is likely not that actually interesting from a broad social perspective.

Why would you assume that? Without providing too much personal detail. I am 10 years+ of out undergrad, work for a large tech company, own property, and originally from the midwest. I consider my peer group diverse as I am a minority who grew up in a low income area but found success in college and consequently in my career.

I just mean that there are certain events that happen in clusters around your peer group (graduation, marriage, kids, divorce, retirement, etc) that will appear as a pattern to you (and me) that are not actually clustered in the broader population that may drive the trends you see.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#84

Post by pram »

tomc1985 wrote: post #62
xadhominemx wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Suburban and housing costs in California are very high by national standards. Is your argument that the people who are moving out of California overwhelmingly non-native Californians?

Once you are out of the main coastal communities housing prices drop dramatically. I have friends in Eureka renting a gigantic house for like $1200/mo, and I saw studio apartments in the city center in the order of $750/mo. The SoCal equivalents would be $3500/mo-plus and $1500/mo-plus, respectively.

Oh yeah plenty of cheap places in El Centro and around the Salton Sea.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#85

Post by fpgaminer »

tomc1985 wrote: post #62
xadhominemx wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Suburban and housing costs in California are very high by national standards. Is your argument that the people who are moving out of California overwhelmingly non-native Californians?

Once you are out of the main coastal communities housing prices drop dramatically. I have friends in Eureka renting a gigantic house for like $1200/mo, and I saw studio apartments in the city center in the order of $750/mo. The SoCal equivalents would be $3500/mo-plus and $1500/mo-plus, respectively.

Absolutely true; you can easily double your bang for buck in California housing by moving outside of major areas. And those less populated areas are still _really_ nice.

But for every buck you save, you lose an hour of your life to our terrible transportation infrastructure. Twice the house, four times the drive. It's why the housing price equation is as unbalanced as it is here.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#86

Post by spoonjim »

hpoe wrote: post #27
xadhominemx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.

Just my little data point but I moved into a sleepy little ID town that has a lot of people that have moved here from SoCal, and of the 5 people I asked "what brought all the way up to Idaho from California?" 4 of them commented on how expensive California was and the high cost of living. 3 of them also stated that they didn't like how things were happening in Cali. Again small anecdotal data point but take it for wh…

If people move out of a place because of high housing costs it necessarily means that others were highly desirous of that place.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#88

Post by spoonjim »

cjsplat wrote: post #31

US census data says about 650k people left California between 2018 and 2019, out of a population of 39M, or 1.6% In dramatic contrast, in Texas, 450k left out of 28M, or 1.6% Nationwide, 7 million people changed states out of 324 M, or 2.1% https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/geograph...

What about the inflows to each?

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#89

Post by okareaman »

KingMachiavelli wrote: post #79
okareaman wrote: post #48

As a native Californian, I'd be fine with more people moving out of California, especially the coastal areas. The surf spots are overcrowded compared to the days when I had the waves to myself. Then there's this: California man blasts Texas 'dystopia' in Op-Ed after moving to Austin https://www.mysanantonio.com/lifestyle/travel-outdoors/artic...

The California 'exodus' is more of a mass immigration into certain desirable areas in the US. These cities & even states have populations smaller than individual suburbs of LA so Californians tend to stand out; especially when they complain and want to change the places they move to.

A while ago I moved to Medford Oregon for a couple of years and the hostility towards Californians was real. Someone I know moved to Southern Oregon recently and it's a little better, primarily because there are a lot of Californians there enjoying great property values and no sales tax.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#90

Post by spoonjim »

BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

The thing is that Bezos has very good instincts. So he’s able to distinguish between anecdotes like “my packages are taking longer to get to me” and “Bill Gates has been tracking me through my covid vaccine.”
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