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California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

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Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#71

Post by mbesto »

BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

> It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

Currently residing in Texas for 2.5 years now, moved from California. Yes, I anecdotally meet "a lot" of fellow NY/CA residents moving here. I also anecdotally have noticed that Whole Foods sells lots of local texan brewery beers. Are Texan local breweries on the rise in popularity or is it just that my proximity to the situation is making me thinking thats the case? (Note - I'm middle aged and work in tech, like lots of the people moving to Austin from CA/NY)

The media's obsession with California, is IMHO, hilarious. I lived there for 3.5 years. The quality of life is incredible, but that is offset by the absurd cost (and thus the economics of your work situation). This experience has, IMO, been in decline. But this is exactly how market dynamics work in a union of states. The more people leave California the cheaper (and thus sustainable) it becomes.

This is an overall good thing for Americans, regardless of where you live. Market liquidity means higher optionality.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#72

Post by ktsmith »

hpoe wrote: post #27
xadhominemx wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The myth (repeated endlessly here and elsewhere) is that high taxes and excessive commercial regulation are driving wealthy founders and other knowledge workers out of California. The truth is that high housing prices are driving low and middle income households out of the state.

Just my little data point but I moved into a sleepy little ID town that has a lot of people that have moved here from SoCal, and of the 5 people I asked "what brought all the way up to Idaho from California?" 4 of them commented on how expensive California was and the high cost of living. 3 of them also stated that they didn't like how things were happening in Cali. Again small anecdotal data point but take it for wh…

I've been in northern Nevada for the last 30 years and it's always been that way. When there's a boom in California it gets a little worse or the impact is felt a little more with things like housing, but it's not new. The best part is you get people that move here for the lower taxes complaining about the lack of services or the quality of the schools without the realization that those things are typically paid for with taxes. On the other side you have locals complaining about the "Californians" moving here and changing things to be more like California. I hear the same things from friends in Idaho that moved a decade ago to get away from the increasing housing costs here.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#73

Post by sien »

solveit wrote: post #61
lostinquebec wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The election wins of Trump, Boris Johnson, Brexit and The Liberals in Australia show that data collection really matters. Similarly the financial crisis of 2009 shows that missing data can really matter. That's the key point of the quote: > There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it

I hate to call something gaslighting, but this is gaslighting of the highest order. I am not familiar with Australian politics, but the other three cases were textbook cases of the data saying one thing (Trump might win, BoJo will probably win, and Brexit might happen) and people refusing to believe it. How these get turned to make precisely the opposite point (Not just by you. It happens all the time) never ceases t…

The Australian election results were within the margin of error of the polls.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/19/voter...

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#74

Post by wolverine876 »

hpoe wrote: post #21
BitwiseFool wrote: post #6

"The thing I have noticed is when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right. There's something wrong with the way you are measuring it." - Jeff Bezos This is a tricky article because I can tell it's using the term 'exodus' and 'myth' differently than I would. It's abundantly clear there is a lot of migration out of California. Just ask Texans, Coloradans, and Idahoans.

I'll throw in my 2 cents that I can confirm the anecdote. I just moved to a small town in Idaho because my wife was from there. We found our house because several new developments are going up. As I've been chatting with some people at church* I was told that about 1/3 of the people that attend have moved to our little town in Idaho from Southern California in the past 2 years or so. That might not seem like much, bu…

Idaho is trendy with Californians, fwiw.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#75

Post by quesera »

tomc1985 wrote: post #62
xadhominemx wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Suburban and housing costs in California are very high by national standards. Is your argument that the people who are moving out of California overwhelmingly non-native Californians?

Once you are out of the main coastal communities housing prices drop dramatically. I have friends in Eureka renting a gigantic house for like $1200/mo, and I saw studio apartments in the city center in the order of $750/mo. The SoCal equivalents would be $3500/mo-plus and $1500/mo-plus, respectively.

Right but this is just by virtue of CA being a big, long, state where the northern reaches are far away from the economically active parts.

Eureka is charming enough, but it has no specific attractive force over any other (very) small coastal city where the next-larger city is many hours' drive away. Compare to Crescent City, or southern coastal Oregon.

So yes, you're still in California up there, and housing is less expensive. But there are no jobs (WFH tide floats all boats), and it isn't the California that most people are looking for. See also: Bakersfield.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#76

Post by tomc1985 »

wolverine876 wrote: post #68
tomc1985 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Years ago (2007ish) I worked for a startup owned by a guy that relocated to Reno and had a huge property in some mountaintop country club on the edge of the city line. As we stood in the snow, looking out over Reno (where they had none) he was telling me all about how the money he saved on taxes in California 100% financed the property we were standing on. It was a very nice house... guessing about 4000 or 5000 sqft.…

It's not a myth because you heard two people talk about it? It's not entirely a myth, I think we can all agree - of the tens of millions of people in CA, some think that way. But CA has long invested large amounts in its people (one reason there is U Cal Berkley, which is one reason for the Bay Area's success), which of course requires taxes, and it long has protected its citizens, including the wealthy ones - someth…

My point is that it is happening, if my anecdata is to be believed, and that sampling theory suggests it might be (or have been) a trend. As a CA native I love my state, but it is also important to understand other perspectives.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#77

Post by wolverine876 »

haswell wrote: post #23
rayiner wrote: post #4

Careful framing of the purported “myth” is critical: > For one, while residents are moving out of state, they are not doing so at "unusual rates." Similarly, the research found no evidence of "millionaire flight" from California and notes that the state continues to attract as much venture capital as all other U.S. states combined, despite the recent exodus of Hewlett-Packard and Oracle. Who is saying California is u…

> Who is saying California is unattractive for rich people and venture capital? One potential source: this is a popular conservative talking point about the dangers of liberal government, and the "exodus" is often used as evidence to justify those talking points. "See, just look at California, they implemented , and everyone is leaving the state". This kind of viewpoint is rampant on places like /r/conservative, and…

> Edit: I’ve upset some folks with this comment. I’m curious to know how/why.

Any mention of politics tends to get downvoted, but in this case, the myth is in significant part a product of a political narrative. I don't know how we can avoid the subject.

We can't talk about the Earth's orbit without discussing the Sun.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#78

Post by maxk42 »

deep-root wrote: post #44

A "back of the napkin" calculation seems to indicate there is no mass exodus. On mobile, but here is the typical annual CA pop change stats for the past decade, give or take: --Incoming-- - 400K domestic immigrants[1] - 180-200K international immigrants[2] - 450K births[4] Subtotal: ~1.1M --Outgoing-- - 600K domestic emigrants[1] - 250K deaths[4] - ?? intl emigrants (anyone know?) Subtotal: ~850K Typical annual net c…

Excellent information!

So what this tells me is based on migration alone, (since births / deaths are not indicative of intent to migrate) California has been flat at best, not counting an unknown number of international emigrants - so that number is likely lower. Given that those net immigration numbers have been dropping faster in the past couple years, we may indeed be seeing the tide turning on California immigration.

Re: California exodus is a myth, UC research project finds

#79

Post by KingMachiavelli »

okareaman wrote: post #48

As a native Californian, I'd be fine with more people moving out of California, especially the coastal areas. The surf spots are overcrowded compared to the days when I had the waves to myself. Then there's this: California man blasts Texas 'dystopia' in Op-Ed after moving to Austin https://www.mysanantonio.com/lifestyle/travel-outdoors/artic...

The California 'exodus' is more of a mass immigration into certain desirable areas in the US. These cities & even states have populations smaller than individual suburbs of LA so Californians tend to stand out; especially when they complain and want to change the places they move to.
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