Looks like I need to move to a cooler area. Is there anywhere that has maps with projected yearly temperatures in different regions of the US? For example right now Boston is miserable in the winter, but it'd be nice to see projections or at least a historical trend of what the average monthly temperatures would look like 5-10 years from now. If they looked better then I'd look to moving up there. If they're too cold maybe I find somewhere more south like New Jersey, or if too warm somewhere more north like Maine.
US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming
71–80 of 224 posts
Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming
#72I'm starting to think that governments and people will be unable to fight CO2 emissions for several reasons: * Reducing living standards is counter intuitive when consumerism is the norm, in France the Yellow Vests movement showed that it's very difficult to tax carbon if it punish poor people. Inequality and carbon emissions are deeply intertwined. * People will just consume, feel guilty, maybe take some individual…
IMO the focus on CO2 emissions is a distraction from the greater sin of ecosystem destruction. Science has a bias for finding single, measurable factors, and its easy to measure CO2 and the greenhouse effect is real. But on the other hand, the atmosphere and oceans storing more energy is not strictly what's causing our problems, but rather the severity and unpredictability of the weather. Charles Eisenstein's book "C…
Maybe we can't terraform Mars into Earth, but we sure can try to terraform Earth into Mars
Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming
#73Earlier quoted context omitted.
>it's very difficult to tax carbon if it punish poor people. Inequality and carbon emissions are deeply intertwined. The atmosphere belongs equally to everybody, so polluters should pay compensation to everybody. The only practicable implementation of this is a carbon tax and dividend. And rich people tend to pollute more, so it will make poor people better off.
> And rich people tend to pollute more, so it will make poor people better off. In the long term, poor people will be better off, yes, but not in the short term. I'm not convinced. Carbon improves the living standard of everybody. Even a fair and progressive carbon tax will hit poor people harder in relative terms. So even if it hits rich people harder, it will much unpleasant on poor people than it will be on poor p…
>Even a fair and progressive carbon tax will hit poor people harder in relative terms. So even if it hits rich people harder, it will much unpleasant on poor people than it will be on poor people.
The tax is redistributed equally as dividend, so your net tax is negative if you pollute less than average.
Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming
#74Earlier quoted context omitted.
It isn't being conflated. The way this sort of research works is by modeling weather under different conditions and determining that certain weather patterns are statistically more likely under conditions consistent with global warming. This isn't just "it is hot for a week so that must be global warming". It is "the air patterns that are required for this sort of thing to happen are highly associated with higher ave…
The models are useless. Or very useful: you can choose any you like to prove a point.
Which is why, for this type of research, you use an ensemble of multiple competing models, which also helps with extracting probabilities. If you think their methodology is flawed, then have the decency to respect the enormous amount of effort that goes into this kind of research and point out actual, specific flaws.
Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming
#75I've been cranking up my AC and adding ice to my water to combat the heat but I recently read an article about sea-life [0] boiling to death in their natural habitats (oceans, seas) which made me realize that animals in the wild increasingly don't have this option. It made me really sad to think about the fact that we'll probably see mass-extinction events (for animals, etc.) in the near future or at least within my…
> I've been cranking up my AC What is your power source?
I’m curious why you ask this question. Does the answer matter or in some way lead to a broader point? If so what is that point? Assume it’s the worst possible energy source as far as you are concerned. Then what is your response?
Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming
#76Earlier quoted context omitted.
It isn't being conflated. The way this sort of research works is by modeling weather under different conditions and determining that certain weather patterns are statistically more likely under conditions consistent with global warming. This isn't just "it is hot for a week so that must be global warming". It is "the air patterns that are required for this sort of thing to happen are highly associated with higher ave…
The models are useless. Or very useful: you can choose any you like to prove a point.
Most models point roughly in the same direction. Read the IPCC reports for expert interpretation of the ensembles.
Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming
#77I'm starting to think that governments and people will be unable to fight CO2 emissions for several reasons: * Reducing living standards is counter intuitive when consumerism is the norm, in France the Yellow Vests movement showed that it's very difficult to tax carbon if it punish poor people. Inequality and carbon emissions are deeply intertwined. * People will just consume, feel guilty, maybe take some individual…
Progressive elitists cruise overhead in private jets, then tell the common people to stop driving cars. Naturally that message doesn't go over well.
A carbon emissions tax could be politically viable if it was coupled with an income tax reduction so as to be revenue neutral. That way most people wouldn't be worse off.
Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming
#78Not only is it possible but the worst heat waves on record were experienced in the 1930s: https://www.weather.gov/arx/heat_jul36
A heatwave in Iowa and Wisconsin does not invalidate the statement that this heatwave in the Pacific NW / BC was once unthinkable and will now be common. Relevant quote from the article: "According to the analysis, if the world warms by 2C, which could happen in about 20 years' time, then the chances of having a heatwave similar to last week's drop from around once every 1,000 years to roughly once every 5-10 years.…
"it will now be common"
Apparently you haven't been paying attention to all the failed predictions by alarmists over the past 3 decades including:
The End of Snow (2000) https://www.climatedepot.com/2018/01/04/flashback-2000-snowf...
The predictions of Glacier National Park being ice free by 2020:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/08/us/glaciers-national-park-202...
Not only is it extremely, extremely unlikely that 2C warming is experienced in the next two decades, it is completely counter to the trend: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/07/uah-global-temperature-u...
All of this article is based on flawed computer models of non-linear dynamic systems that become exponentially unpredictable as a function of time. What were the odds of the 1930s heat waves, which were far more drastic, and far more sustained? No answer there.
Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming
#79I've been cranking up my AC and adding ice to my water to combat the heat but I recently read an article about sea-life [0] boiling to death in their natural habitats (oceans, seas) which made me realize that animals in the wild increasingly don't have this option. It made me really sad to think about the fact that we'll probably see mass-extinction events (for animals, etc.) in the near future or at least within my…
> It made me really sad to think about the fact that we'll probably see mass-extinction events (for animals, etc.) in the near future or at least within my lifetime It's generally agreed that we are already living within a mass extinction event[0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropocene#Biodiversity "Humankind has entered what is sometimes called the Earth's sixth major extinction. Most experts agree that huma…
There is a great book on this subject called "The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History".
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17910054-the-sixth-extin...
Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming
#80I've been cranking up my AC and adding ice to my water to combat the heat but I recently read an article about sea-life [0] boiling to death in their natural habitats (oceans, seas) which made me realize that animals in the wild increasingly don't have this option. It made me really sad to think about the fact that we'll probably see mass-extinction events (for animals, etc.) in the near future or at least within my…
One thing you can still do is plant native plants. Almost all urban areas are virtually devoid of biodiversity and are breeding grounds for many invasive species which then spread out into other areas and choke out biodiversity elsewhere. If we want to prevent extinction, that's at least one avenue (out of many, undoubtedly) that should be taken.