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US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

bbc.com

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Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#41

Post by Spooky23 »

jokoon wrote: post #23

I'm starting to think that governments and people will be unable to fight CO2 emissions for several reasons: * Reducing living standards is counter intuitive when consumerism is the norm, in France the Yellow Vests movement showed that it's very difficult to tax carbon if it punish poor people. Inequality and carbon emissions are deeply intertwined. * People will just consume, feel guilty, maybe take some individual…

The argument against doing anything simple is already out there and will be more prominent when denial is unavoidable -- climate change is a natural cycle, or god's will.

The chaos associated with this stuff is an opportunity for many.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#42

Post by UncleMeat »

irthomasthomas wrote: post #40

I thought we where not supposed to conflate weather and climate change? https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate/climate_we... https://www.science20.com/news_articles/stop_conflating_weat... https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/hot-planet/dont-be-fool...

It isn't being conflated.

The way this sort of research works is by modeling weather under different conditions and determining that certain weather patterns are statistically more likely under conditions consistent with global warming. This isn't just "it is hot for a week so that must be global warming". It is "the air patterns that are required for this sort of thing to happen are highly associated with higher average global temperatures". The causality is going in the other direction.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#43

Post by rimliu »

minikites wrote: post #28

We're not going to solve climate change because no amount of evidence will convince people to act less selfishly. The human race isn't going to save this planet and we're not going to leave the planet either. The best outcome I can think of for the future is a managed decline where hopefully too many people don't die in the coming climate-caused geopolitical instability and resource wars.

The only thing worse than climate change is the number of misanthropes.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#44

Post by germinalphrase »

irthomasthomas wrote: post #40

I thought we where not supposed to conflate weather and climate change? https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate/climate_we... https://www.science20.com/news_articles/stop_conflating_weat... https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/hot-planet/dont-be-fool...

It’s not the type of weather, it’s the extremity, that’s concerning.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#45

Post by fabbari »

refurb wrote: post #25
milesskorpen wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those highs are 105-110 in the Great Plains … seems substantially cooler than 125F in Canada.

Look at the temperature records in Canada. Of the 13 provinces and territories, 9 of the 13 records were set in the 1930's or earlier. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_extreme_temperatures_i...

Interestingly enough: the highest temperature recorded in the 1930's is 4.6C lower than the current record.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#46

Post by mrob »

jokoon wrote: post #23

I'm starting to think that governments and people will be unable to fight CO2 emissions for several reasons: * Reducing living standards is counter intuitive when consumerism is the norm, in France the Yellow Vests movement showed that it's very difficult to tax carbon if it punish poor people. Inequality and carbon emissions are deeply intertwined. * People will just consume, feel guilty, maybe take some individual…

>it's very difficult to tax carbon if it punish poor people. Inequality and carbon emissions are deeply intertwined.

The atmosphere belongs equally to everybody, so polluters should pay compensation to everybody. The only practicable implementation of this is a carbon tax and dividend. And rich people tend to pollute more, so it will make poor people better off.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#47

Post by rimliu »

UncleMeat wrote: post #42
irthomasthomas wrote: post #40

I thought we where not supposed to conflate weather and climate change? https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate/climate_we... https://www.science20.com/news_articles/stop_conflating_weat... https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/hot-planet/dont-be-fool...

It isn't being conflated. The way this sort of research works is by modeling weather under different conditions and determining that certain weather patterns are statistically more likely under conditions consistent with global warming. This isn't just "it is hot for a week so that must be global warming". It is "the air patterns that are required for this sort of thing to happen are highly associated with higher ave…

The models are useless. Or very useful: you can choose any you like to prove a point.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#48

Post by JulianMorrison »

sgpl wrote: post #39

I've been cranking up my AC and adding ice to my water to combat the heat but I recently read an article about sea-life [0] boiling to death in their natural habitats (oceans, seas) which made me realize that animals in the wild increasingly don't have this option. It made me really sad to think about the fact that we'll probably see mass-extinction events (for animals, etc.) in the near future or at least within my…

It already is a mass extinction event, globally, by any historical standards. But yes, it could get worse.

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#49

Post by helen___keller »

sgpl wrote: post #39

I've been cranking up my AC and adding ice to my water to combat the heat but I recently read an article about sea-life [0] boiling to death in their natural habitats (oceans, seas) which made me realize that animals in the wild increasingly don't have this option. It made me really sad to think about the fact that we'll probably see mass-extinction events (for animals, etc.) in the near future or at least within my…

> It made me really sad to think about the fact that we'll probably see mass-extinction events (for animals, etc.) in the near future or at least within my lifetime

It's generally agreed that we are already living within a mass extinction event[0]

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropocene#Biodiversity "Humankind has entered what is sometimes called the Earth's sixth major extinction. Most experts agree that human activities have accelerated the rate of species extinction.The exact rate remains controversial – perhaps 100 to 1000 times the normal background rate of extinction"

Re: US-Canada heatwave 'virtually impossible' without warming

#50

Post by karmelapple »

necrotic_comp wrote: post #11
chrisco255 wrote: post #4

Not only is it possible but the worst heat waves on record were experienced in the 1930s: https://www.weather.gov/arx/heat_jul36

What I don't understand is what people who argue against climate change stand to gain. The argument for climate change is: "humans are polluting the planet and it's causing a change in the environment and will have a disastrous effect on the climate." The arguments I hear against climate change always seem to concede that humans are polluting the planet, but argue in different ways (natural cycle/not really happening…

Because it may cost a little money in the short term.

Or it may mean admitting politicians from a different viewpoint might be right.

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